Football Season Welcome Page

Hello and welcome to another football season. Now that the season is starting it is time to send the welcome email. I know a lot of you have been on the members list for years but there are always new signups that don’t understand how the release process works as well as have other frequently asked questions. This page will answer just about everything. If you do have other questions feel free to reply back to the email and we will answer and possibly add it to this page for future use.

RELEASE PROCESS
Early in the week normally Monday, sometimes on Tuesday, we will send out an email from the madduxsports@aol.com email account. In this email there will be some early picks for the week as well as a link to a page on our website where all the picks we release for the week will be listed so you can make sure you have bet all the games we have released at weeks end. An example of that page can be found here.

Anytime we add a pick for the week you will get an email notification with the subject “Picks Notification.” The email address that this email comes from will be maddux@movetheline.com. Be sure to add both email addresses to your contacts list so the emails are delivered directly into your inbox. In that email it will say what day the pick is for as well as what the pick is. Once a pick is released it will be emailed to you and also added to that weekly release page.

Additional emails are sent during the week with added picks. We try to have most of the College Football Picks for Saturday out by Friday and most of the NFL Picks for Sunday out to you by Saturday. This gives you the best advantage of timing your bets as well as gives us ample time to handicap and have all the information at our finger tips so that we can provide the highest quality of picks. Occasionally we may release additional picks on game day for both sports to just the monthly and seasonal members. These could be released anywhere from the morning up until 30 mins or so before kickoff. We are always on the lookout for ways that will increase profit for you guys and I think this additional late release will add value to the service at no extra charge.

If you don’t want to receive the email notifications of pick releases and would rather just check the weekly update page just reply back to the email and we will remove you from the notifications list.

 

RATING OF PICKS
We rate our picks as either 10 or 20 unit picks. We tend to have a few more of these 20 unit plays in the sport of football compared to other sports like basketball and baseball. This is because more often there are some great spots in the NFL & College where we can predict a team will give a home run like type effort or on the other hand be flat as a pancake. By no means are these 20 unit picks “locks”. They are slightly stronger than the 10 unit plays and should be bet at most double the amount you wager on 10 unit picks. Personally 1.5 times is a more reasonable strategy and depending on betting limits 1.5x is the most we will ever go. When you see the word opinion play or lean that is a lean towards a side in which we are not personally betting nor will it be added to our season record. It is just our lean one way or another mostly reserved for TV games to let you know gun to head which side/total we would take. We do sell the leans/opinions to daily signups as for whatever reason certain people just have to have action on tv games they are watching. Personally I could care less if a game is on TV and just because a game is on TV is not a valid reason to bet it.

 

BET SIZE
How much should I bet per game? We get this question asked all the time and the honest answer is that is entirely dependant on a number of factors. What your goal of sports betting is, is your bankroll replenishable, what is your risk tolerance, what is the size of your bankroll are just a handful of the questions that need to be answered first. The safest answer is almost all your bets should be around 2-4% of your bankroll, this figure is suitable for most. Folks that want to be more conservative and have larger bankrolls should steer closer to the 2%. Bettors that enjoy more risk vs reward or have a bankroll that is replenishable can come closer to the 4% or higher range.

 

PRESEASON & NFL PLAYOFFS
Both of these are included in the cost of the season package and monthly members receive these picks as well. We do recommend betting 1/2 the amount you normally would during the regular season on these games. This is what we personally do in our own betting. While both preseason and the playoffs do offer some good wagering opportunities we have found that our edge is not as big versus the regular season.

 

NUMBER OF PICKS
We average about 8 picks on a Saturday of college football action and around 4 picks on the Sunday NFL card. Sometimes we may find more, other times we will release less. It all just depends on how much value we see on the board for the day. For example because most of our College football handicapping is based on stats and situational analysis, week 1 has always typically been a 3-5 pick release. This season there is the possibility of maybe opening it up a little bit depending how well the linesmakers are doing their job. We have considered releasing some additional CFB totals just to the seasonal and monthly members as this once again seems like another way to add value to membership. Whether we do this or not will depend on how many books are posting them as well as the betting limits they are offering.

 

DAILY PICK BUYERS
We offer daily packages on the website. Often times because the lines we give out to season members do move the lines the picks we sell to daily buyers will differ from the season holders as we dont want to give out a handful of plays with lines that they have no shot of getting on Saturday morning. Because of this there could be days where the daily guys do better than the season members. Rest of assured there are no picks being held back or that you are losing out on anything. The stuff that is left out for daily members are normally the strongest bets we released to season members earlier in the week as those are the ones where the lines have moved the most.

 

TV GAMES DURING THE WEEK
If we are passing on one of the weekday TV games like Monday Night Football or Thursday night college football we will try and update the weekly page with some text letting you know that we are not putting out a pick as well as our “gun to the head” opinion on the game. I cannot guarantee that this will be done all the time as I never want to say we are passing for fear that we get wind of some late information or a big line move happens and a game becomes attractive to us. Please note that just because a game is on TV doesn't’t mean it must be wagered on. There are plenty of times where the bookmakers do a good job lining the side and total and there is no value on the games.

 

LINES
When we send out our picks the line we use to grade the pick is the widely available line at the time of release. We define widely available as a line that is at 50% of the internet/vegas well respected sportsbooks. Lines do move and there are times where you will get a better line than us and vice versa. We cannot offer advice on what to do after a line has moved after our release as responding to requests like this takes time away from handicapping. Obviously there is a big difference between saying can I play -19 when our release line was -18.5 VS playing a pick at +2.5 vs a +3 release line. There is no general rule of thumb and you will have to use your best judgment.

 

WHERE CAN I BET THESE GAMES AT
If you visit the sportsbooks page on the website it will list all of the recommended online sportsbooks that we consider safe and reliable.

 

RESULTS
There will be ups and downs along the way of a football season. While we expect to turn a profit every single day unfortunately this doesn't’t happen. We judge results at season’s end not over a day to day or week to week basis. Remember that we are betting these same games that you are. Sending an email after a losing day while may make you feel better does nothing but waste our time. Time that could have been spent handicapping the next days/weeks games.

If you bet all the games we give out this will give you the best chance to win at years end. Picking and choosing which games you want to bet is ultimately your decision but remember why you signed up with us in the first place. If you miss out on a total or a pick on game day dont fret, it is a long season and there are plenty of profitable wagering opportunities the rest of the way.

 

CLOSING NOTES
I can guarantee that no other public handicapper gives you a better chance to turn a profit betting football than Maddux Sports. We are one of the few guys out that actually does win over the long run and one of the few that actually bets all the games they give out. We thank you for your order and wish you the best of luck this season.