Being a coach in the NBA is not a great job to have if you value job security. There is a whole lot of turnover every year, and coaches often don’t last in a job for very long if they don’t get immediate results. When a new basketball coach starts the season in the NBA handicappers need to quickly get a sense of how effective they should be in their first few games of the year. The betting public is going to base their expectations in these early games under a new coach on assumptions and reputation, so the more accurate your assessment can be the better the chance you can find some nice value when checking out the latest lines – especially if your opinion differs from the public expectations. Here are six factors to consider when trying to determine how a coach might perform early in their time with a new NBA team:
How long have they had the job? – The longer a guy has had to get used to his new job, hire his people, implement his systems, and get to know his players, the more likely he is to be ready to go as soon as the long NBA season starts. The closer to the end of last season the coach is hired, then, the better. When you are considering this you should also consider how a guy was hired. If the coach was the first choice, or one of the first choices, for the job then not only will he have have plenty of time to get ready, but he’s likely to have more respect. If the hiring process was drawn out and the hired coach seems more like a default choice, though, then he not only will have had less time but he’ll have more to overcome in his hopes to establish respect.
Do they have ‘instant respect factors’? – The key to early success for a NBA coach is for them to be able to establish quick respect so that the players are willing to buy into their message and do what they want regardless of how different it might be from what they are used to. One of the easiest ways for coaches to earn the required respect is if they have things going for them that will automatically command that respect. A coach who has won championships for another team would have that respect, as would one who has been integral in the emergence and development of a superstar player or a strong, competitive NBA team. A guy who was a respected star as a player also has a good chance at earning early respect.
What happened last year? – A coaching change signals a move forward from last season, but early in the new season the coach can’t totally ignore what happened before. How good was the basketball team last season? The worse they were the more work that needs to be done, and the harder that work is going to be. You can’t dwell on the past, but you certainly have to be aware of it. You also need to consider what impact that history is going to have on the public. If the team was really one of the worst in the NBA in the previous season then the team is likely not to give the new coach a lot of credit unless he is a very high profile guy or the team has made dramatic changes.
How much has their roster changed? – Quite often the change in NBA coaches will be accompanied by big changes to the roster as well. It’s very important to consider what impact these changes are likely to have on the team early on. Are there holes in the roster? Is early on court chemistry a concern? Are some of the new players familiar with the coach from other teams? What impact will the moves have on the feeling of the public towards the team?
How will they be changing the style of play? – The more significantly a NBA coach will be looking to change the philosophy of a team on the court the more likely that the changes will take time to implement. If, for example, a team shifts from an offensively minded coach to a defensive specialist then the mindset of existing players will have to be adjusted, and the roster will have to be adjusted to suit the new approach. If the coach has the same basic philosophy as his predecessor, though, then the early play could be very strong because the new coach can focus on making small tweaks instead of major overhauls.
Who do they play? – Like in any other situation in sports betting you can’t overlook the opponents in these games. A weak opponent that a team matches up well against can make a transition to a new coach much easier than a road game against an elite team will. Solid information on and analysis of the new coach in connection with the latest odds will offer sports bettors the opportunity to make winning wagers.
