Turnover percentage and defense field goal percentage are keys in college basketball point spread betting. Turn on SportsCenter on any given night during the NCAA college basketball season, and you will most likely find a buzzer-beating three or a monster dunk in the day’s Top-10 plays. On the other hand you will very seldom see great perimeter defense or an offense controlling the ball. They’re just not as flashy.
However, they are the keys to your success when betting against the college basketball spreads. When engaging in college basketball handicapping and looking for favorable odds for point spreads or moneylines, make sure to take into account a team’s perimeter defense and turnover percentage on offense i.e. ball control.
By controlling the basketball on the offensive side of the ball a team can limit an opponent’s possess-ions and dictate the pace of the game. Good shot selection is key, and an offense that can control and move the ball around will find an open shot more often than not. By taking care of the ball and securing a positive assist to turnover ratio, an offense can pave the road for the defense to win the game.
With limited possessions for the opponent, the defense can minimize the points scored against them. The most important number for basketball bettors to look at in this case is field goal percentage allowed. If the defense can keep the opposing offense to a low percentage, the limited possessions weigh even heavier. If the hoop team can defend the perimeter and keep the opposing team from shooting well from beyond the arc, the value of the ball control goes up even further.
When betting on college basketball lines, look for teams that can control the pace of the game and limit their opponents’ number of possessions. Most importantly, look for basketball teams that can keep their opponents’ field goal percentage and three point percentage down.
Compare the two and make sure there is a sound balance between the two numbers. It won’t do you any good if a team defends the perimeter well, but neglects the paint. The same is true for teams that pack the paint, but leave shooters open from beyond the arc. Make sure to go with balanced teams that can defend both areas of an opponent’s game.
As with any statistic in college basketball, always take into account the competition these stats were put up against when betting against college basketball lines. Teams can inflate their numbers against weaker opponents and look better than they really are.
Therefore, when handicapping the game and preparing to invest your money on college basketball spreads, make sure to look at a team’s opponents and their ranks instead of just looking at the bare stats. A good rule of thumb is to go with the stats from a little later in the season. Most NCAA teams play a softer schedule at the beginning of the season to get into a rhythm and try out new players.
Look at conference matchups in the bigger conferences. When researching teams from weaker conferences, check out their stats in non-conference games against better opponents. Those will more accurately depict the strength of a team on the court.
Take into account the motivation level of the players as well. Players usually seem to raise their game against tough opponents. They will play harder in conference-games and in games where they are the underdog. Heavy favorites tend to take inferior competition lightly sometimes and take it easy. That is when their numbers go down, and you will have to know how to figure such a game into your assessment of the team.
Also make sure to check out our blog for the latest news in college basketball. We analyze the effect events like injuries, suspensions, and coaching changes have on the spreads, moneylines and totals in NCAA college basketball that are all helpful to the bettor.
We here at Maddux Sports look at all the stats and take all these factors into account when we prepare our college basketball predictions against the point spread. If you don’t have the time to do the research or want to just kick back and enjoy the college basketball season, you can benefit from buying our NCAA college basketball picks.
Over the years we have beat out all other online handicapping services in numerous contests. These accomplishments have made Maddux Sports the No. 1 overall basketball handicapper in the country. Apply all the principles we have talked about in this article and trust our college basketball picks and you can consistently beat the college basketball odds.
