Atlanta Braves (45-35) AT Seattle Mariners (39-40)

June 28,. 2011 at 10:10 PM EST

Opening Line:  SEA -115, ATL -105

Current Line:  SEA -114, ATL -105

Opening Total: 7.5

Current Total:  7

SP:  ATL- Tommy Hanson; SEA- Michael Piñeda

The Braves and Marlins have pitchers about as good as they come, but unfortunately for the Mariners, it doesn’t matter how good your pitching is if you provide them with little to no run support.  Their staff is equally as good, and possibly better, than Atlanta’s but find themselves a game below .500 as opposed to the Braves, who sit 10 games above .500.  It’s not really any advanced logic to spot this, but sometimes the obvious requires reiteration.

The Braves have won 6 of their last 8 games as their starters have posted an ERA under 2.00 (1.80) and have given up either one run or none at all in 7 of those 8 games.  Last night, Brandon Beachy held the Mariners to one run over only three innings of work.  The Marlins did not score at all for the final 6 innings of the game.
Atlanta being able to put the young Tommy Hanson at the mound may make things even easier.  He was on the DL with shoulder tendintis but prior to the injury he had won three straight starts and recorded a 1.42 ERA over that span with 24 strikeouts in just 19 innings of work.  He’s only 24 and is still getting better, and his youth should enable him to recover more quickly from a minor injury like this than a pitcher with a lot of “miles” and wear on his arm.

“His (ailment) wasn’t anything we were worried about, really,” Braves Manager Fred Gonzalez remarked casually, “The doctors said to just let it calm down and he’d be fine.”

This will be Tommy Hanson’s first start against the Seattle Mariners in his career.

The Mariners will be sending rookie sensation Michael Piñeda to the mound.  Piñeda has shown all the signs of being a future perennial all-star as he has a 7-4 record on ateam that offers little run support and his ERA is low, at 2.45.  In his last 7 starts at home, he has won 4 of 5 decisions while keeping his ERA over that span a hair under 2.00.

As I said, the run support hasn’t been there…he’s received 3 or fewer runs backing in all 6 of his last 6 starts and though his ERA is a very good 2.89 over that span, he has only won 1 of 3 decisions for it (if nothing else it speaks to the irrelevancy of pitchers’ records).

Piñeda must be growing tired of it, nonetheless, as he threw 7 scoreless innings and gave up only 4 hits in a 1-0 loss to the Washington Nationals.  When you strike out 9 batters and allow so few on base, not receiving a victory must be like winning a lottery but dropping your ticket in the sink and watching all the numbers bleed off the page…

The Mariners have another impressive rookie in Dustin Ackley.  He was just called up from the Mariners’ farm system and has hit .303 since.  He is 5 of 12 in the last 3 games.  So, while the Mariners’ record doesn’t give a lot of reasons for excitement, the youth that they have on their team and the strong pitching has to give fans a reason for hope, if only the Mariners can acquire a few for-average hitters.

Some betting trends:

The total has gone UNDER In 6 of the Braves’ last 8 games and the Braves are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games.  The Braves are also 8-3 SU in their last 11 on the road while they are 4-2 SU in their last 6 against the Seattle Mariners.  The total has gone UNDER In 5 of the last 7 games against Seattle.

The total has gone UNDER in all 5 of the Mariners’ last 5 gamse while they are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games.  The total has also gone UNDER in all 5 of their last 5 at home while the Mariners are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games against the Atlanta Braves.  The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the last 7 games against Atlanta.

It should be nice to watch two of the best young pitchers in the game go head to head.  Given both teams’ propensity towards scoring almost none at all, the total of 7 actually seems sky high for a game like this, and the under seems like a very solid bet.