The Atlanta Falcons travel to Miami to take on the Dolphins in NFL preseason action Friday night. The Dolphins opened as 2 ½ point favorites, but our NFL betting page indicates that the line has come down to a pick at most sites, with a few listing the home Dolphins as 1 point favorites.
Even though the line has receded, the betting public is playing the Dolphins at about a 65% clip, depending upon the sportsbook. Here again we see the public betting one way, the line moving the other. This reverse action is a sign that the some of the betting professionals are siding with the visiting Falcons. Last week the wiseguys led us to the Oakland Raiders against the Chicago Bears with a welcomed result. The slight underdog Raiders dominated the home Bears, earning a nice reward for bettors who followed the wiseguys.
At first glance the Dolphins appear to be a decent play. In their first two preseason games the Dolphins have been good enough, beating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by a field goal, and the Jacksonville Jaguars by a point. At Jacksonville Dolphin quarterbacks were sharp, going 22-30 for 262 yards with 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Starting quarterback Chad Henne found success against the Jaguars last season, and this matchup was no different. Henne’s quarterback rating was a gaudy 151.2. Although the running game was stagnant (28 carries for 79 yards), the Dolphin rush defense was sturdy, holding the Jags to only 54 yards on 19 carries.
On the other side of the field, the Atlanta Falcons have looked ordinary. In week 1 the Falcons took down the Kansas City Chiefs 20-10, and then got kicked at home by the New England Patriots, 28-10. Against the Pats the final score looked closer than the game actually was. The Falcons were never able to match the Patriots’ intensity and trailed 28-3 in the final quarter until a late score made the score somewhat more respectable. Especially troubling for Atlanta fans, the Falcons’ first-stringers have yet to find the end zone.
So why are the wiseguys coming down on the side of the visiting Falcons? One factor is likely the way the Falcon defense shut down the Dolphins last season. In week 1 of the regular season the Falcons defeated the Dolphins 19-7, holding Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams to a combined 82 yards on 17 carries. The story of the game was turnovers. The Falcons were +4 thanks to 3 Dolphin fumbles and 1 Chad Pennington interception. Matt Ryan had a nice game, going 22-36 for 229 yards, throwing 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.
In addition, these two teams seem to be mirror images of each other. Both the Falcons and Dolphins prefer to establish the run first, and then work the play-action down the field. For the Fins, Brown and Williams will likely get a good number of carries this week. But worth noting is the pedestrian effort of the two against Jacksonville; the two combined for 21 yards on 7 carries. The Falcons will counter with Michael Turner. Last year an injury limited Turner to only 9 games. But in those 9 games Turner collected 10 rushing touchdowns on nearly 900 yards. Last week against the Pats Turner carried the ball 8 times for 32 yards, while backup Antone Smith out of Florida State had 44 yards on 8 carries.
Chances are that Henne and Ryan will get a solid half’s worth of work this Friday night, then look for Tyler Thigpen and Chad Pennington to finish the game for the Dophins, while John Parker Wilson will eventually relieve Ryan. The two teams’ backup signal callers are all capable, so don’t expect too much of a drop-off. Stretching the field for the Dolphins is Denver outcast Brandon Marshall, while the Falcons counter with Roddy White on the outside. The two wide receivers should be able to avoid double teams because each team has a top-tier tight end as well. Anthony Fasano will look to atone for his mistakes against the Falcons from last year – Fasano was responsible for 2 of Miami’s 3 lost fumbles. And for Atlanta, sure-fire Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez will provide a reliable target for Ryan down the middle of the field.
This should be a close game. The two teams have similar offensive philosophies, and each have the personnel to make their game-plans work. The public likes the home Dolphins, while wiseguys seem to be playing the visiting Falcons. To find the winning play in this week’s preseason matchups, make sure to sign up for our premium picks package.
