Florida State Seminoles AT Georgia Tech Yellowjackets
Feb 10, 2011 at 7 PM EST
Opening Line:  Fla St. -1
Current Line:  Fla St. -1
Opening Total: 130.5
Current Total:  131.5
Opening Moneyline:  Fla St. -125 / Ga Tech +105
Current Moneyline:  Fla St. -120 / Ga Tech +100

Tonight’s game brings together two ACC rivals that are heading in different directions.  The Georgia Tech Yellowjackets have dropped 4 of their last 5 games and now find themselves 2 games under .500 at 10-12.  They have won only 3 of 9 conference games and sit at 9th in the ACC.  Florida State, conversely, has won 5 of their last 7 games and are well above .500 at 16-7, and they have won 6 of 9 conference games rendering them in 3rd place in teh ACC.

Georgia Tech, despite having a losing record, has a positive point differential of +2.8.  They rank middle of the road (between 133rd and 171st) in points, rebounds, and assists, and give up 66.5 points a game while scoring 69.3.  Florida State, as you would expect from a 16-7 team, has a pretty high positive point differential of 8.2.  They rank 10th in the Nation in rebounds per game and 156th in scoring with 70.0 points per game.  They give up 61.8

Some betting trends:

Florida State is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games and are 1-4 SU in those 5 games.  The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Florida State’s last 7 road games and they are 2-7 SU in their last 9 at Georgia Tech.  The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Florida State’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Georgia Tech.

Georgia Tech is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games and the total has gone UNDER in 6 of their last 7 games.  Georgia Tech is 20-5 SU in their last 25 home games and the total has gone UNDER in 5 of their last 5 at home.   Georgia Tech is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games against Florida State and the total ha gone UNDER in 5 of the last 5 games against Florida State.  Georgia Tech is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against Florida State and they are 7-2 SU in their last 9 home games against Florida State.  The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the last 5 home games against Florida State.

Florida State is headed up by the tandem of Chris Singleton and Derwin Kitchen, who together combine for 24.2 points per game and are the only two Florida State players to average 30 or more minutes a game.  Singleton is a 6’9″ junior forward and he averages 13.9 points per game and 7.3 rebounds per game.  Despite being a big man, he is an effective three point shooter and is hitting 36% from down town (31 of 86).   After a good start to the season he has struggled the last 5 games, averaging only 8 points per game over that stretch.  He seemed to have pulled out of the funk last game, scoring 15 on 6 of 10 shooting in a 20 point loss to UNC, but it’s difficult to gauge performances in blowout games.  Kitchen is a 6’4″ senior guard who averages 10.3 points per game, 3.7 assists per game, and 5.9 rebounds per game.  His best game came in the upset over Duke, a 5 point Florida State win.  He played 36 minutes and recorded 22 points, 10 rebounds, and 3 assists.  If he plays anything like that tonight, Florida State will obviously run away with this game.

Georgia Tech is led by sophomore Brian Oliver and junior Iman Shumpert, who average 11.5 and 16.6 points per game, respectively.  Shumpert leads the team in rebounding too with 5.9 rebounds per game. Brian Oliver, though undersized for a big man, his strength and leaping ability enable him to be an effective big inside, while clearly lacking the size to take his game to the next level.  Shumpert is having the best year of his three years at Tech so far, upping his scoring average from previous years by over 3 points a game.  His field goal percentage, though, is a paltry 37.5%, in line with his percentage from previous years.  He will have to up his percentage for the Yellowjackets to have any chance at all this March.

Sophomore Glen Rice Jr. doesn’t appear to have the shooting skills of his father, but should still develop into a nice player for the Yellowjackets.  He is averaging the second most points per game on the team with 12.6 a game.  Last year he did a better impresonation of his father, shooting 46.7% from behind the arc, but he has inexplicably struggled this year, albeit in a small sample size, going 26 of 77 behind the arc.  If he can regain his touch Georgia Tech it would enable Georgia Tech to have a good shot at covering the spread.

This game between the ACC rivals promises to be a good one.  I like Georgia Tech given the fact they are at home where they have been very successful, but I am worried by their recent play and understand why college basketball oddsmakers have set the line in Florida State’s favor.