Weber State Wildcats AT Tulsa Golden Hurricane
December 16th, 2010 at 8:00 PM EST
Opening Line:  Tulsa -8.5
Current Line: Tulsa -8.5
Opening Total: 140.5
Current Total: 140.5
Opening Moneyline:  Tulsa -450 / Weber State +370
Current Moneyline:  Tulsa -400 / Weber State +330

Weber State enters tonight’s game with a 5-3 record, taking on Tulsa, who are 4-5.  Despite Weber State having a better record, college basketball handicappers have set the line in Tulsa’s favor.  Weber State also has a better point differential, of +4.9 compared to Tulsa’s +2.3 (Tulsa is 77th in the nation in scoring with 75.0 points per game)  What’s more is that Weber State has won their past three contests, against Southern Utah, Seattle, and Drake.  Tulsa has lost their last three, to Princeton, Oklahoma State, and Arkansas-Little Rock.

Part of the reason Weber State is not favored in college basketball picks and predictions may be because they have lost 5 of their last 7 road games.  Moreover, Tulsa has won 20 of their past 25 home games.  Weber State is 3-1 ATS this year and Tulsa is 5-3 ATS, including 2-2 ATS at home.

Weber State is led by 6’2″ junior point guard Damian Lillard who scores far and away more than any other player on their team with a 21.5 point per game scoring average.  He has scored 25 or more 4 times in their 8 games this season, including a 31 point game in their victory against Drake.  He’s an effective three point shooter (35.3%) and is capable of getting to the basket well and drawing fouls to get himself to the line; in the game against Drake he shot 17 free throws.  Outside of Lillard, Weber State has four other players that average 8 or more a game (Scott Bamforth, Lindsey Hughey, Byron Fulton, Trevor Morris).  Weber State will shoot a lot of threes.  They average 18.6 three point attempts a night and hit 40.3% from behind the arc.  If they get cooking from distance the college basketball betting line could end up being off.

Tulsa has 4 players who average 12 or more a game (Justin Hurtt, Steven Idlet, Scottie Haralson, and Jordan Clarkson), but no one else outside these four makes any significant contribution on the offensive end, and Tulsa relies heavily upon its starters, as all five average 24 or more minutes a game.  They are led by the 6’4″ senior Hurtt, who manages 18 points per game and hits 37.3% from behind the arc (19 of 51 on the year).  Last game in the 4 point loss to Princeton, Haralson scored 25 points and played 42 minutes.  Tulsa has a great big man in 6’11” junior forward Steven Idlet, who scores 13.8 points per game and gets 6.4 blocks a night, but despite being near 7 feet, he only blocks one shot a game on average.

Given Weber State’s relative success this year, it is highly possible that they cover the 8.5 point spread.  They have the three point shooting to put up points in a hurry and if they get hot they could win this game.  Tulsa will have to close out on three point shooters and go over the top on pick and rolls to prevent Weber State from getting too many good looks.