Winning College Basketball Picks: Drexel at Louisville

Drexel Dragons @ Louisville Cardinals
December 14th, 2010 at 9:00 PM EST
Opening Point Spread:  Louisville -14
Current Point Spread:  Louisville -13.5
Opening Total:  133
Current Total: 133.5
Moneyline: Louisville -1400 / Drexel +1000

Louisville is favored by 14, but only 20% of bettors so far think they will cover that spread

Tonight’s matchup features the undefeated Louisville Cardinals, who have won all 8 of their games and are currently the #1 team in the Big East.  Drexel has impressed, too, however, winning 6 of their first 7 games and sit at 1st place in the Colonial Conference.  So far (as of 2:30 AM), 80% of bettors have taken the spread for Drexel.

Both teams have large positive numbers for their point differential.  Louisville is +23.1, and are 14th in the nation in points per game with 82.9 per contest.  Drexel is +11.3 and they average 161st in the country 70.7 points per game.  So we can expect a fairly high scoring match between these two teams.  Drexel’s last two games have been close, winning by 4 against Rider and by 5 against Northeastern.  Louisville disposed of UNLV last game, winning by 8 and they blewout the four games before that, winning by an average of 28.5 points per game in that span.

Drexel is 3-1 ATS on the road this year and Louisville is 4-0 ATS at home.

Drexel is led by 6’2″ sophomore Chris Fouch, who scores 22.5 points per game, including shooting 43.1% from behind the arc and 45% from the field overall.  He has scored 20 or more in four of Drexel’s seven games, and went for 23 last game against Loyola.  He’s been getting to the line a lot, and converting at an 82.9% clip.  6’5″ junior forward Samme Givens does the dirty work inside for the Drexel Dragons.  Despite being only 6’5″, Givens averages a team high 11.4 boards a game to go with his second-on-the-team 11.3 points per game.  He has had four double doubles this year so far and went for 12 & 12 last game.  Louisville will have to get a body on Givens on the offensive end, since he is averaging 4.5 of his 11 boards on the offensive glass.  His dirty work inside will result in a lot of cheap buckets and put backs.

Unlike Drexel, Louisville has a very balanced attack, with six players averaging 8 or more points per game, and their leading scorer Preston Knowles averages but 12.4 a game.  Preston Knowles, a 6’1″ senior point guard, is a gunner.  He has already attempted 49 threes (7 per game) and is shooting 34.7% from behind the arc.  Louisville as a team has attempted 215 threes out of their 502 field goal attempts, so to say they rely on the three point shot would be a vast understatement.  As a team they are shooting 32.1% from three; respectable, but not outstanding.  Drexel will have to body up shooters and close out on them to prevent Louisville from getting going behind the arc.

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