Golden State Warriors AT Phoenix Suns
Feb 10, 2011 at 9 PM EST
Opening Line:  Phx -5.5
Current Line:  Phx -6.5
Opening Total: 187.5
Current Total:  187
Opening Moneyline: Phx -265 / GS +225
Current Moneyline:  Phx -280 / GS +230

The crawl back to .500 has been arduous for the Phoenix Suns, but they are almost there and will have a chance to balance out their record tonight against a Golden State team that is only 6-17 on the road.  Golden State has won 5 of their last 10, compared to Phoenix’s 6 of their last 10, so it’s easy to see why the line is set relatively close for this one.  Both teams are quite mediocre and unlikely to appear in the Playoffs this year.  Phoenix has won 10 straight against Golden State, however, so they can rest their hat on that at least.

“It hasn’t been a very fun year in large part, but it’s been more fun lately,” Steve Nash commented, “We just have to keep working every day, we have to continue to improve and we also have to get a little bit tougher.”

No doubt acquiring center Marcin Gortat from Orlando made the Suns tougher.  Gortat has posted a double double in 6 of the Suns’ last 9 games and has all but displaced Robin Lopez as starter.  Gortat has shown all the promise that led the Suns to give up Jason Richardson, Hedo Turkoglu, and promising youngster Earl Clark.  They also acquired Vince Carter and Mikael Pietrus, but Carter is just an expiring contract and Pietrus is barely playing; the real gem in the deal was the 7’0″ Polish center.

Some betting trends:

Golden State is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games and the total has gone UNDER in 15 of their last 23 on the road.  Golden State is 1-4 SU in their last 5 on the road and the total has gone UNDER in 5 of the last 7 games against Phoenix.  Golden State is 1-8 SU in their last 9 against Phoenix and the total has gone UNDER in 4 of the last 5 road games against the Suns.  Golden State is 0-5 SU in their last 5 against Phoenix on the road and they are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games there.

Phoenix is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games and the total has gone UNDER in 7 of Phoenix’s last 10 games.  The total has gone OVER in 5 of their last 7 home games and they are 6-2 SU in their last 8 at home.  Phoenix is 8-1 SU in their last 9 against Golden State and the total has gone UNDER in 5 of the last 7 games against the Warriors.  The total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 5 home games against Golden State and they are 5-0 SU in their last 5 at home against the Warriors, as well.

Key Matchups:

Dorell Wright vs. Grant Hill

Wright floundered in obscurity for his first six seasons in the league, battling injuries and inconsistent playing time before bolting for Golden State this offseason in a signing that barely anyone took notice of.  Now they are.  Wright is in this year’s three point competition and has emerged as a solid offensive threat for the Warriors, averaging 16.8 points per game, 5.8 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 1.5 steals in a whopping 39 minutes of action per night.  Grant Hill is still widely regarded as a good wing defender though, so Wright will still have his work cut out for him.  He’s only an inch taller than Hill, but his lanky frame will enable him to get good looks from behind the arc, where he shoots 40.8%, hitting an average of 2.5 threes per game.  Hill will have to engage himself offensively to make Wright work on that end of the court, because if Hill is too passive Wright will have that much more energy to expend on his aresenal of offensive moves.

Stephen Curry vs. Steve Nash

Nash just turned 37 (!) three days ago, but he is timeless.  For all we hear that he is slowing down, he continues to log heavy minutes (33 a night) and put up gaudy stats (16.7 ppg, 11.1 apg, 3.7 rpg, on 52% FG, 40% three).  Curry will give Nash all he can handle defensively, though.  Curry is quick and accurate from deep, a combination that gives the best of defenders fits, never mind the defensively challenged Nash.  Expect both Curry and Nash to post hefty numbers tonight, but Nash will probably still edge out Curry in terms of production.  Nash accounts for 37% of Phoenix’s offense (that is he either assists or scores the bucket) and his heavy usage leads to great stats on a regular basis.

The point guard battle and the small forward battle will go a long way towards determining the outcome of tonight’s game.  If Wright can get going against Hill and Curry burns Nash, the Warriors could easily steal this game.