Los Angeles Lakers at San Antonio Spurs
December 28th, 2010 at 8:35 PM EST
Opening Line: San Antonio -3
Current Line: San Antonio -3
Opening Total: 199
Current Total: 198.5
Opening Moneyline: San Antonio -165 / LA +145
Current Moneyline: San Antonio -160 / LA +140
Things are not going the Lakers’ way of late. Following a horrible loss to the Brandon Jennings-less Bucks, they proceeded to get romped by Miami on Christmas Day. Kobe is frustrated, “It’s like these games mean more to our opponents than they do to us. I think we need to get that straight – play with more focus, put more (emphasis) on these games. I don’t like it. … We know what we’re capable of doing, and that’s part of the problem.” It will take much more effort on these games, and Kobe Bryant knows it, to have any chance of beating the Spurs, who own the league’s best record and are 17-2 at home this year.
NBA Oddsmakers seem to have taken the Lakers’ struggles into account, but have they? San Antonio is very tough at home and with L.A. struggling, this NBA picks ATS may be set a little low. Kobe is only averaging 16.8 points per game over the last four games, and will have his problems with Ginobili tonight, who is having the best year of his career so far. He’s been effective against the Lakers throughout his career, but could outmatch his 16.3 point per game average against L.A. tonight, especially if Kobe focuses more on overcoming his recent offensive struggles.
Some betting trends: The Lakers are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games and the total has gone UNDER in 15 of LA’s past 19 games. The total has gone UNDER in 9 of their past 12 on the road and it has gone UNDER in 5 of the last 6 games in San Antonio. The Lakers have won 9 of the past 13 meetings in San Antonio and the total has gone UNDER in 11 of the past 14 road games in San Antonio. The Lakers have, however, lost 15 of their past 23 games in San Antonio.
San Antonio has won 11 of their past 12 games, and are 1-4 ATS in their last 5. The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio’s last 6 games. The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Antonio’s last 10 home games and it has gone UNDER In 5 of their last 6 against the Lakers. San Antonio is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against the Lakers, as well.
Some key matchups to watch:
Pau Gasol vs. Tim Duncan
While it is somewhat dubious that the two will cover one another all night, these are the two premier interior players on these teams and they will be a focal point of both offenses. Gasol is having the best year he has had since his days in Memphis, averaging 19.5 points per game and 11.0 rebounds per game. Throughout his career, he has had success against the Spurs, averaging 18.9 points per game and 8.2 boards against Tim Duncan. Despite the Spurs’ outright dominance this year, Duncan is having by far the worst year of his NBA career, but part of that can be attributed to the fact he is only playing 28 minutes a game. Now 34 years old, Duncan is slowing down and relying more and more on his jumpshot than faceup moves to the basket. He’ll have no easy time against Gasol, and probably will struggle to put up his season average of 13.6 tonight. Somewhat perplexingly, he is blocking more shots than in years’ past, at 2.0 per game, and his rebounding numbers haven’t fallen off that much, but with Ginobili and Parker stepping up their scoring, Duncan just hasn’t been needed as much on offense.
Kobe Bryant vs. Manu Ginobili
As touched upon earlier, this is going to the key matchup of the game. Both players lead their respective teams in scoring and both are good defenders. It should be a joy to watch them go head to head as their styles are quite different and each knows each others’ game well. Kobe has been struggling recently and Manu has been on fire all year, so it should be interesting to see who gets the best of whom in this one.
This one should be a close one, as indicated by NBA oddsmakers opening spread, but with L.A.’s recent struggles and San Antonio’s dominance at home, a moneyline bet may be the most prudent way to go.
