#4 Oregon Ducks at #17 Southern California Trojans
Saturday, November 3, 2012, 7:00 pm Eastern, TV: Fox
Los Angeles Coliseum – Los Angeles, California
Opening Line: Oregon -6
Current Line: Oregon -8
Opening Total: 68
Current Total: 70
Opening Money Line: Oregon -320/ USC +270
Current Money Line: Oregon -335 / USC +285
Although USC was the #1 team in the pre-season rankings, Oregon wasn’t far behind in the top 5. Well, as November is here, only Oregon has lived up to those lofty standards. The Ducks are 8-0 and #4 in the latest BCS standings, but #2 in both polls. Oregon is one of 6 remaining unbeaten teams left in college football. USC is 6-2 this season and is #17 in the BCS standings, as they host the Ducks in a crucial game for both teams.
USC leads the series 38-18-2 including 23-7-1 in Los Angeles. Oregon is 8-6 in the series since 1994 though. Oregon has won 3 of the last 5, but USC upset the Ducks last year in Eugene 38-35.
Oregon is 5-0 in Pac 12 play under coach Chip Kelly. Oregon leads the Pac 12 North division by a game over Oregon St and Stanford, but the Ducks haven’t played either team yet. The Ducks have won every game by at least 17 points. They have home wins over Arkansas St 57-34, Fresno St 42-25, Tennessee Tech 63-14, Arizona 49-0, Washington 52-21, and last week against Colorado 70-14 along with road wins against Washington St 51-26 in Seattle and 43-21 at Arizona St. The Ducks are 4-4 ATS and the total is 4-3 this season. Oregon covered the 47 point spread last week against an awful Colorado team and went over the 67.5 total by themselves.
Oregon is averaging 540.1 yards per game, including 209.5 passing yards and 330.6 rushing yards per game. The Ducks are #7 in total offense and #3 in rushing nationally. Oregon is outscoring teams 53-19 this season. The Ducks are #1 in scoring nationally. Oregon is +6 in turnovers, but the Ducks do have 17 turnovers this season. Oregon is averaging 70.9 penalty yards per game . The Ducks have allowed 10 sacks. Oregon is 73/139 on third and fourth down conversions and 43/47 scoring in the red zone with 39 touchdowns. On defense, Oregon is allowing 351.5 yards per game including 213.6 passing yards and 137.9 rushing yards. The Ducks have forced 23 sacks and 23 turnovers this season. Oregon opponents are 42/146 on third and fourth down conversions, and 17/31 scoring in the red zone with 11 touchdowns. The Ducks have returned 4 interceptions for touchdowns this season, and also have a punt return for a TD.
Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota has completed 133 of 194 passes (68.6%) for 1,483 yards with 18 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Mariota has also rushed 57 times for 378 yards with 3 touchdowns. He has been sacked 9 times. Mariota even has a touchdown catch. Back-up Bryan Bennett has thrown for 193 yards, with 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He also has 166 rushing yards and 6 rushing touchdowns. Running back Kenjon Barner has 141 carries for 974 yards and 14 touchdowns, along with 13 catches, 158 yards, and a touchdown. De’Anthony Thomas has 58 carries, 499 yards and 7 touchdowns. He also leads the Ducks in catches with 24 for 218 yards and 3 touchdowns. He also returns kicks and punts, and has 1,025 all-purpose yards with a punt return touchdown. Byron Marshall has 69 carries, 369 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Receiver Bralon Addison has 19 catches, 226 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Tight end Colt Lyerla has 12 catches, 189 yards, and 4 touchdowns, along with 13 carries for 77 yards and a touchdown. He is questionable with a knee injury after missing the Colorado game. Keanon Lowe has 13 catches, 133 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Aside from the running backs, Dwayne Stanford , Daryle Hawkins, and Josh Huff will also get a lot of targets. Hawkins and Huff each have two touchdown catches.
USC is 4-2 in the Pac 12 under coach Lane Kiffin. The Trojans lead the South division by a half game over Arizona St and UCLA. The losses for USC came at Stanford 21-14 and last week at Arizona 39-36. The Trojans have home wins over Hawaii 49-10, Cal 27-9, and against Colorado 50-6. USC has road wins over Syracuse 42-29 in New Jersey, at Utah 38-28, and Washington 24-14. The Trojans are 2-6 ATS and the total is 3-5 this season. USC was a 5.5 point favorite in the Arizona game and the total was 69.
USC is averaging 445.9 yards per game including, 291.2 passing yards and 158.9 rushing yards. On defense, the Trojans are allowing 3 yards per game including 242.8 passing yards and 123.2 rushing yards. USC is outscoring teams 35-20 this season. The Trojans have forced 23 turnovers this season, and have a turnover margin of +5. USC is averaging 85 penalty yards per game. The Trojans have allowed 11 sacks and forced 27 of their own. USC is 38/119 on third and fourth down conversions, and 26/32 scoring in the red zone with 21 touchdowns. Trojan opponents are 48/131 on third and fourth conversions, and 22/30 scoring in the red zone with 14 touchdowns. The Trojans have four defensive/special teams touchdowns.
USC quarterback Matt Barkley has completed 171 of 262 passes (65.3%) for 2,266 yards with 25 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. He has been sacked 10 times this season. Running back Silas Redd has 117 carries, 640 yards and 7 touchdowns, along with 5 catches for 79 yards. Curtis McNeal has 47 carries, for 299 yards, along with a catch for 20 yards. McNeal is probable with a head injury after missing the Arizona game. D.J. Morgan has 35 carries, 186 yards and a touchdown, along with a receiving touchdown on his only catch. Receiver Marqise Lee has 76 catches, 1,129 yards and 10 touchdowns, along with 44 rushing yards. Lee also has a kickoff return for a touchdown. He is probable because of academics. Robert Woods has 53 catches, 585 yards, and 9 touchdowns, along with 76 rushing yards. Lee and Woods are arguably the best receiver tandem in the country, but no other Trojan has more than 15 catches. Tight end Christian Thomas is questionable this week with a hip injury. Thomas hasn’t played yet this season. Seven Trojan defensive player are out indefinitely or for the season.
Oregon is 5-0 ATS on grass, 5-1 in road games, 4-1 after scoring 40 points or more, in Pac 12 games, in road games against teams with winning home records, after a straight up win, after rushing for 200 yards or more, after a straight up win of 20 points or more, and after allowing less than 170 passing yards, and 7-3-1 against teams with winning records. The favorite is 6-2 ATS in this series recently.
USC is 9-2 ATS after allowing less than 200 yards rushing, 4-1 at home, 16-6 after a straight up loss, 35-16 in November, 2-5 after allowing more than 450 yards, 2-6 overall, and 0-4 after passing for more than 28o yards. Four of the last five meetings in this series in LA have gone under the total.
USC has been disappointing so far, but they can still win the Pac 12 Championship and go to the Rose Bowl. A loss to Oregon wouldn’t necessarily end that dream but it would make it a lot more difficult to achieve. The Trojans still have games against Arizona St and UCLA so they control their own destiny for the South division, win or lose against Oregon.
For the Ducks, they have even bigger dreams of playing in the BCS Championship game. For the past three weeks Oregon has won by an average of 36 points and still dropped in the BCS standings. That is mainly because Oregon has played a softer schedule than teams like Kansas St or Notre Dame than have passed them in the standings. That will change as Oregon has games against USC, Stanford, and Oregon St remaining, all are ranked 17th or higher in the BCS standings. I think USC fights hard in this game, but Oregon simply has too much and wins on the road in a shootout.
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