Brigham Young Cougars at Utah State Aggies
Romney Stadium – Logan, Utah
Friday, October 4, 2013, 8:00 pm Eastern, TV: CBS Sports Network
Opening Line: Utah State -6
Current Line: Utah State -6
Opening Total: 57 1/2
Current Total: 57 1/2
Opening Money Line: Utah State -240 / BYU +200
Current Money Line: Utah State -230 / BYU +190 

The 2-2 Brigham Young University Cougars make the 125 mile trip from Provo to Logan to take on instate rival the 3-2 Utah State Aggies Friday night. BYU leads the series 45-34-3, but Utah State is 18-15-2 in Logan. The rivalry date back to 1922 and since 1948 they have played for the Old Wagon Wheel Trophy. BYU has won 5 of the last 6 against Utah State including a narrow 6-3 win in Provo last year.

BYU is coached by Bronco Mendenhall. The Cougars have alternated wins and losses this season with losses at Virginia 19-16 and at home to rival Utah 20-13, along with home wins over Texas 40-21 and last Friday against Middle Tennessee 37-10. The Cougars are 2-2 ATS and the total is 1-3 this season. BYU covered the 23.5 point spread against Middle Tennessee and the game stayed under the 59 point total.

BYU had 486 total yards in the game against Middle Tennessee including 309 rushing yards. The Cougars held the Blue Raiders to 212 total yards. Despite having 5 turnovers and 9 penalties for 80 yards, BYU was able to win by 27 points.

BYU is outscoring teams 27-18 this season. The Cougars are averaging 492.5 total yards (#21 nationally) including the #4 rushing attack in the country at 307.2 yards per game. On defense, the Cougars are allowing 320.5 total yards per game including 201.2 passing yards and  119.2 rushing yards. The Cougars are -6 in turnovers with 3 takeaways. BYU is averaging 61.5 penalty yards per game, and opponents are averaging 50 . BYU has forced 6 sacks and allowed 9. The Cougars are 33/86 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 19/76. BYU is 15/19 scoring in the red zone with only 8 touchdowns and opponents are 8/10 with 6 touchdowns. That has been the main reason for the Cougars’ two losses as they had to settle for field goals far two many times in the losses against Virginia and Utah. The Cougars have a punt return for a touchdown.

BYU quarterback Taysom Hill has completed 40.6% of his passes for 741 yards with a touchdown and 4 interceptions. He is more dangerous with his legs though. Hill has 66 carries, 565 yards and 6 touchdowns. Running back Jamaal Williams is out indefinitely with a neck injury and a concussion suffered in the Utah game. Williams has 76 carries, 378 yards and 3 catches for 28 yards. Paul Lasike and Michael Alisa will split the carries without Williams. Lasike has 32 carries, 140 yards and a touchdown. Alisa has 32 carries, 99 yards and 3 touchdowns. Receiver Cody Hoffman has 10 catches, 171 yards and no touchdowns. He missed the MTU game after he was suspended for violating team rules. He will play against Utah State though. Hoffman has struggled so far despite being an All-American candidate in the pre-season. J.D. Falslev has 8 catches for 111 yards and the Cougars’s lone touchdown catch along with a punt return for a touchdown. Five BYU defensive players are out indefinitely or for the season including 3 defensive backs. Three offensive linemen are listed as questionable or doubtful.

Utah State is coached by Matt Wells. The Aggies have losses at Utah 30-26 and at USC 17-14. Utah State has wins at Air Force 52-20 and last week at San Jose State 40-12, along with a home win over Weber State 70-6. The Aggies are 4-1 ATS and the total is 3-2 this season. Utah State easily covered the 10 point spread at San Jose State last Friday and the game went under the 62 point total.

The Aggies had 520 total yards including 253 rushing yards. San Jose State had 437 total yards including 336 passing yards. The Spartans had 4 turnovers. Utah State had 9 penalties for 95 yards and SJSU had 11 for 108.

Utah State is outscoring teams 40-17 this season. They are #24 nationally in both categories. The Aggies are averaging 491.2 total yards per game including 288 passing yards and 203.2 rushing yards. On defense, Utah State is allowing 315.4 total yards per game, including 188.8 passing yards and 126.6 rushing yards. The Aggies are +5 in turnovers with 9 takeaways. Utah State is averaging 74 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 57. The Aggies are 44/85 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 32/88 . Utah State is 25/27 scoring in the red zone with 20 touchdowns and opponents are 11/13 with 5 touchdowns.

Utah State quarterback Chuckie Keeton has completed 71% of his passes for 1,362 yards with 17 touchdowns and a pick, along with 52 carries, 224 yards and a touchdown. He is a dark horse Heisman contender. Running back Joey DeMartino has 47 carries, 345 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 4 catches for 40 yards.  Joe Hill has 53 carries, 252 yards and a touchdown, along with 13 catches for 94 yards and a touchdown.  Robert Marshall has 32 carries, 143 yards and a touchdown. Receiver Travis Reynolds has 21 catches, 306 yards and 3 touchdowns. Travis Van Leeuwen has 21 catches, 287 yards and a touchdown. Bruce Natson has 28 catches for 214 yards. Brandon Swindall has 17 catches, 195 yards and 4 touchdowns. Keegan Andersen and D.J. Tialavea both have 3 touchdown catches this season.

BYU is 10-1 ATS against Mountain West teams, 10-2 against teams with winning home records, 4-1 in Friday games, 12-4 in road games, 11-4 against teams with winning records, 11-4 after gaining more than 450 total yards, 5-2 in October and on fieldturf, 9-4 after a cover, 2-5 after allowing less than 275 total yards, 1-5 after a straight up win of 20 points or more, 1-7 after a straight up win, and 0-4 after rushing for 200 yards or more. The last six in this series have gone under the total.

Utah State is 5-0 ATS in Friday games, 4-0 in October, 11-1 after a straight up win, 11-1-1 after a cover, 10-1-1 after allowing less than 20 points, 9-1 after a straight up win of 20 points or more, 8-1 at home, 12-2 in non-conference games, 8-2 after rushing for 200 yards or more, 16-4-1 overall, 12-3-1 on fieldturf, and 34-15-2 after gaining more than 450 total yards. The Aggies have covered the last 5 against BYU and were the underdog in each of those games.

Both of these teams have good defenses although BYU has a lot of injuries. UTah State is much better on offense, but i think this will be a low scoring game. Perhaps not as low scoring as BYU’s 6-3 baseball score like win last year, but something like 20-10. The Aggies win and cover with a late score.

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