Iowa State Cyclones at #20 Texas Tech Red Raiders
Jones AT&T Stadium – Lubbock, Texas
Saturday, October 12, 2013, 12:00 pm Eastern, TV: Fox Sports 1
Opening Line: Texas Tech -17
Current Line: Texas Tech -14
Opening Total: 56 1/2
Current Total: 56
Opening Money Line: Texas Tech -550 / Iowa State +425
Current Money Line: Texas Tech -650 / Iowa State +475 

The 5-0 Texas Tech Red Raiders host the 1-3 Iowa State Cyclones Saturday in Big 12 action. The #20 Red Raiders are 2-0 in the Big 12 and the Cyclones are 0-1. Texas Tech leads the series 8-3 against Iowa State including a 24-13 win last year in Ames. In 2011, Iowa State came to Lubbock and whipped Texas Tech 41-7, the week after the Red Raiders had upset then #1 Oklahoma on the road.

Iowa State is coached by Paul Rhoads. The Cyclones only win came on the road at Tulsa 38-21. Iowa State has losses at home to Northern Iowa 28-20, Iowa 27-21 and last Thursday against Texas 31-30. The Cyclones are 2-2 ATS and the total is 3-1 this season. Iowa State was a 7 point underdog against Texas and the total was 54.5.

Texas took a 10-0 first quarter lead, but Iowa State scored 13 straight to go up 13-10. However, the Cyclones gave up a hail mary touchdown pass on the last play of the first half and trailed 17-13 at halftime. The teams traded touchdowns in the third quarter to make it 24-20 Texas going into the fourth. Iowa State scored 10 points in the fourth to go up 30-24 with 3:40 left. Texas drove down the field with the help of two controversial pass interference calls against Iowa State. The Longhorns appeared to fumble the ball on the one trying to get into the end zone and officials said Texas recovered the ball. The play would be reviewed and it looked like Iowa State recovered but referees said replays were inconclusive and the play stood. Texas would score on the next play to take a 31-30 lead. Iowa State got the ball back with 51 seconds left and got to the Texas 42 before ISU quarterback Sam B. Richardson threw an interception to end the game. Rhoads would lambaste the officials in a rant after the game and was fined by the Big 12.

Iowa State had 463 total yards to Texas’s 363, but the Cyclones were unable to overcome 2 turnovers and 10 penalties for 118 yards. Texas had one turnover and 6 penalties for 62 yards.

Iowa St is outscoring teams 27.2-26.8 this season. The Cyclones are averaging 406.5 yards per game including 254.8 passing and 151.8 rushing yards. On defense, Iowa State is allowing 393 yards per game including 230.2 passing and 162.8 rushing yards. The Cyclones are +3 in turnovers with 8 takeaways. Iowa State is averaging 53 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 25. The Cyclones are 35/76 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are  30/63. ISU has forced 7 sacks and allowed 16 this season. The Cyclones are 13/13 scoring in the red zone with 9 touchdowns, and opponents are 10/12 scoring in the red zone with 7 touchdowns.

Iowa State quarterback Sam B. Richardson has completed 62.3% of his passes for 1,019 with 9 touchdowns and 4 interceptions along with 60 carries for 194 yards. Running back Aaron Wimberly has 58 carries for 302 yards and a touchdown, along with 6 catches for 59 yards and a touchdown. James White and Shontrelle Johnson will also get some carries. Fullback Jeff Woody has only 11 carries for 17 yards but he has three rushing touchdowns for the Cyclones this season. Receiver Quenton Bundrage has 18 catches for 323 yards and 4 touchdowns. Tad Ecby has 15 catches for 159 yards. Tight end Pierce Richardson is questionable with an ankle injury but hasn’t played this season.

Texas Tech is coached by Kliff Kingsbury. The Red Raiders have road wins at SMU 41-23 and last Saturday at Kansas 54-16. Texas Tech also has home wins over Stephen F. Austin 61-13, TCU 20-10, and Texas State 33-7. The Red Raiders are 4-1 ATS and the total is 3-2 this season. Texas Tech was a 16.5 point favorite at Kansas and the total was 55.

Kansas actually led 10-0 in the first quarter against Texas Tech. However, the Red Raiders would score 54 unanswered points. The Jayhawks added a late touchdown but missed the extra point to make the final 54-16. Texas Tech had 518 total yards including 404 passing yards. Kansas had 273 total yards and 15 first downs. The Jayhawks had 12 penalties for 81 yards and 4 turnovers while the Red Raiders had 9 penalties for 76 yards and one turnover.

Texas Tech is outscoring teams 42-14 this season. The Red Raiders are #18 nationally in scoring and #8 in points allowed. On offense, Texas Tech is averaging 519.6 yards per game including 407.6 passing and 112 rushing yards. The Red Raiders are #13 in total offense nationally and #3 in passing, but #110 out of 125 teams in rushing. On defense, Texas Tech is allowing 352 yards per game including 244.4 passing and 107.6 rushing yards. The Red Raiders are #31 in total defense and #17 against the rush. Texas Tech is even in turnovers with 11 giveaways and takeaways. The Red Raiders average 83 penalty yards per game and opponents average 79. Texas Tech is 45/92 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 27/99. The Red Raiders have forced 14 sacks and allowed 10 this season. Texas Tech is 27/30 scoring in the red zone with 15 touchdowns and opponents are 6/11 with two touchdowns. The Red raiders ahve one defensive touchdown this season.

Texas Tech quarterback Baker Mayfield is a walk-on true freshman. He has been doing great this season, but injured his knee in the Kansas game. The injury isn’t season ending but he is listed as doubtful Saturday. If Mayfield can’t go it will either be another true freshman Davis Webb or projected pre-season starter Michael Brewer who missed the first month of the season with a back injury. (Apparently, in order to be a quarterback for Texas Tech you have to have a name that sounds like a PGA golfer.) Mayfield has completed 65.7% of his passes for 1,488 yards with 8 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, along with 45 carries, 119 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns. Webb has completed 51.4% of his passes for 550 yards with 6 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Brewer has yet to throw a pass this season, but played a few snaps in garbage time of the Kansas blowout.

Running back Quentin White has 13 carries for 130 yards and a touchdown. DeAndre Washington has 40 carries, 119 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 12 catches for 87 yards. Kenny Williams has 41 carries 118 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 7 catches for 71 yards and a touchdown grab. Tight end Jace Amaro has 38 catches, 463 yards and a touchdown. Receiver Eric Ward has 27 catches, 343 yards and 2 touchdowns. Jakeem Grant has 25 catches, 304 yards and 2 touchdowns. Bradley Marquez has 19 catches, 292 yards and 4 touchdowns. Reginald Davis has 4 catches, 79 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Iowa State is 5-1-1 ATS in October, 7-3 in road games, 1-3-1 after a cover, 0-4 after rushing for 200 yards or more, and 0-4-1 against teams with losing records.

Texas Tech is 6-0 ATS after a straight up win of 20 points or more, 4-1 after passing for 280 yards or more, overall, and on fieldturf, 8-2 after allowing less than 275 total yards, 6-2 after allowing less than 20 points, 5-2 against teams with losing records, 7-3 after scoring more than 40 points, 3-7 after allowing less than 100 rushing yards, 2-5 in Big 12 games and at home, and 1-5 after gaining more than 450 total yards. The favorite is 7-2 ATS in this series recently.

Obviously, keep an eye on the Texas Tech quarterback situation but either way the Red Raiders are going to throw the ball at least 60 times anyway. Texas Tech does throw a lot of interceptions but that comes with so much. I don’t see Iowa State being able to score enough to keep up with Texas Tech. The Red Raiders should win this game rather easily.

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