Brigham Young Cougars at Central Florida Knights
Bright House Networks Stadium – Orlando, Florida
Thursday, October 9, 2014, 7:30 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: UCF -3
Current Line: UCF -3 1/2
Opening Total: 47
Current Total: 44 1/2
Opening money Line: UCF -170 / BYU +145
Current Money Line: UCF -170 / BYU +145
Going into last week the 4-0 Brigham Young University Cougars were nationally ranked and were considered a dark horse contender for the new four team playoff. However, those dreams ended when star quarterback Taysom Hill broke his leg in a 35-20 loss at home to Utah State last Friday night.
The Cougars try to rebound as they travel to the 2-2 Central Florida Knights Thursday night. BYU won the only previous meeting against UCF 24-17 in Prove in 2011.
BYU is coached by Bronco Mendenhall. The Cougars have road wins over Connecticut 35-10 and Texas 41-7. BYU also has home wins over Houston 33-25 and Virginia 41-33. The Cougars are 2-3 ATS and the total is 3-2 this season. BYU was a 21 point favorite against Utah State and the total was 52.5.
UCF is coached by George O’Leary. The Knights lost to Penn State 26-24 in Dublin, Ireland and at Missouri 38-10. Central Florida has a home win over Bethune-Cookman 41-7 and last Thursday at Houston 17-12. The Knights are 2-2 ATS and the total is 1-3. UCF was a 2 point underdog against Houston and the total was 48.5.
BYU is outscoring teams 34-22 this season. The Cougars are averaging 445 yards per game including 229 passing and 216 rushing yards per game. BYU is allowing 383 yards per game on defense, including 285 passing and 98 rushing yards. BYU is #11 nationally in rush defense nationally. The Cougars have forced 9 turnovers and allowed 11 this season. BYU is averaging 96 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 86. The Cougars are 34/78 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 36/95. BYU has allowed 15 sacks and forced 10 sacks. The Cougars are 20/22 scoring in the red zone with 14 touchdowns, and opponents are 15/19 with 10 touchdowns. BYU has a kickoff return for a touchdown.
BYU quarterback Taysom Hill was putting up some early Heisman like numbers before the injury last week. Hill had completed 66.7% of his passes for 975 yards with 7 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and has also rushed for 460 yards on 87 carries with 8 touchdowns. Christian Stewart took over for Hill against Utah State. He didn’t perform well, as he completed 10 of 29 passes for 172 yards with 3 interceptions. He isn’t nearly as mobile as Hill. Stewart rushed for 11 yards on 7 carries against Utah State.
Running back Jamaal Williams has 76 carries for 398 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 3 catches. Running back Adam Hine has only 14 carries but has 2 rushing touchdowns, plus a receiving touchdown and a kick return for a touchdown. Receiver Jordan Leslie has 23 catches for 362 yards and a touchdown. Mitch Mathews has 24 catches for 251 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Central Florida is outscoring teams 23-21 this season. The Knights are averaging 281 yards per game on offense including 179 passing and 103 rushing yards per game. UCF is #108 or worse in all three categories out of 128 teams. On defense, the Knights are allowing 334 yards per game including 228 passing and 106 rushing yards. UCF is #16 nationally in rush defense and #29 in total defense. The Knights are +1 in turnovers with 7 takeaways. UCF is averaging 66 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 93. The Knights are 23/56 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 31/67. UCF has forced 9 sacks and allowed 14 this season. The Knights are 12/14 scoring in the red zone with 8 touchdowns, and opponents are 11/14 including 4 touchdowns. UCF has allowed a defensive touchdown this season.
UCF quarterback Justin Holman has completed 54.4% of his passes for 659 yards with 6 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, along with 41 carries for 81 yards and 2 rushing touchdowns. Running back William Stanback has 44 carries for 181 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 4 catches and a touchdown. Dontravious Wilson has 36 carries for 98 yards, plus 4 catches. Breshad Perriman has 9 catches for 258 yards and a touchdown. J.J. Worton has 10 catches for 159 yards and a touchdown.
BYU is 9-1-1 ATS after a straight up loss, 5-1 after a double digit home loss, 5-2 in October, 7-3 in Thursday games, 2-5-1 after allowing more 450 total yards, 2-5 in road games, 2-7-1 overall, 1-5-1 on grass and 0-4-1 after failing to cover.
UCF is 5-0 ATS in Thursday games, 7-1 after gaining less than 275 total yards, 4-1 in October, 7-2 against teams with winning records and in non-conference games, 8-3 after a straight up win, 20-8-1 after passing for less than 170 yards, 10-4 after allowing less than 20 points, 7-3 at home, and 9-4 on grass.
Central Florida has struggled on offense averaging just under 14 points a game against teams other than lowly Bethune-Cookman. BYU struggled on offense after Hill was injured in the second quarter, scoring only 6 points for the rest of the game. Four turnovers didn’t help. This could be a low scoring game as Stewart adjusts to the new role as starter. Expect him to lean on running back Williams. I like Central Florida to win a close game at home.
