#5 Auburn Tigers at #20 Kansas State Wildcats
Bill Snyder Family Stadium – Manhattan, Kansas
Thursday, September 18, 2014, 7:30 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: Auburn – 6 1/2
Current Line: Auburn -9
Opening Total: 65 1/2
Current Total: 65 1/2
Opening Money Line: Auburn -340 / Kansas State +300
Current Money Line: Auburn -315 / Kansas State +270
Two top 20 teams collide Thursday night in Manhattan, Kansas as the #5 Auburn Tigers meet the #20 Kansas State Wildcats. Auburn leads the series 3-0 including 23-13 in Auburn in 2007.
Auburn is coached by Gus Malzahn. The Tigers are 2-0 this season with home wins over Arkansas 45-21 and San Jose State 59-13 two weeks ago. Auburn is 2-0 ATS and both games have gone over the total. The Tigers were 33 point favorites against San Jose State and the total was 67.
Kansas State is coached by Bill Snyder. The Wildcats are 2-0 as well with a home win over Stephen F. Austin 55-16 and a narrow 32-28 win at Iowa State two weeks ago. Kansas State is 0-2 ATS and both games have gone over the total. The Wildcats were 11.5 point favorite at Iowa State and the total was 54.5.
Auburn is outscoring teams 52-17 this season. The Tigers are #5 in points scored and #21 in points allowed nationally. Auburn is averaging 544 total yards a game including 330 rushing and 214 passing yards per game. The Tigers are #7 in rushing and #19 in total offense. On defense, Auburn is allowing 324 yards a game including 215 passing and 109 rushing yards per game. The Tigers are +1 in turnovers and have forced 4 turnovers. Auburn is averaging 58 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 53. The Tigers are 20/29 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 11/33. Auburn has forced 5 sacks and allowed 1 this season. The Tigers are 11/11 scoring in the red zone with 10 touchdowns, and opponents are 5/6 with 3 touchdowns. Auburn has a punt return for a touchdown and a pick six.
Auburn has used two quarterbacks this season, Nick Marshall and Jeremy Johnson. Johnson started the Arkansas game after Marshall broke some team rules. Marshall did play in that game and started against San Jose State. Johnson played against San Jose State but only in the latter stages of a blowout. Both quarterbacks could see action against Kansas State but I think it is more likely Marshall plays the whole game if it is close. Johnson has thrown for 277 yards with 2 touchdowns, and also has a rushing touchdown. Marshall has thrown for 151 yards with a  touchdown, and also has 19 carries for 122 yards and 2 touchdowns. This is sort of a homecoming for Marshall as he attended junior college in relatively nearby Garden City and was close to signing with Kansas State before choosing Auburn.
Running back Cameron Artis-Payne has 42 carries for 289 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 2 catches. Corey Grant has 20 carries for 176 yards and a touchdown, plus 2 catches. Receiver D’haquille Williams has 13 catches for 214 yards and a touchdown. Melvin ray has 4 catches for 107 yards and a touchdown. Wide receiver Sammie Coates is questionable with a leg injury.
Kansas State is outscoring teams 44-22 this season. The Wildcats are averaging 475 total yards per game including 239 passing and 236 rushing yards. On defense, Kansas State is allowing 307 total yards per game including 220 passing and 87 rushing yards per game. The Wildcats are #20 in rush defense and #23 in total defense. Kansas State is +1 in turnovers and has forced 2 turnovers. The Wildcats are averaging 46 penalty yards per game and opponents average 66. Kansas State is 16/31 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 10/31. Kansas State has forced 5 sacks and allowed 5 as well. The Wildcats are 12/12 scoring in the red zone with 10 touchdowns, and opponents are 4/4 with 3 touchdowns. Kansas State has allowed a punt return for a touchdown.
Kansas State quarterback Jake Waters has thrown for 462 yards with 2 touchdowns and an interception, plus he has rushed for 193 yards on 37 carries with 4 touchdowns. Running back Charles Jones has 21 carries for 130 yards and 4 touchdowns. Running back DeMarcus Robinson has 18 carries for 70 yards, plus 6 catches for 64 yards. Receiver Tyler Lockett has 7 catches for 145 yards and a touchdown.
Auburn is 11-0 ATS after a cover, 7-0 after scoring more than 40 points, 6-0 after accumulating 450 total yards or more, 5-0 in non-conference games, and after passing for less than 170 yards, 4-0 against teams with winning home records, in road games and after a straight up win by 20 points or more, 10-1 against teams with winning records, 13-3 after a straight up win, 4-1 in September, 17-5 in overall, 42-19-1 after rushing for more than 200 yards, and 3-8 after allowing less than 20 points.
Kansas State is 4-0 ATS after a bye week, 21-8 after gaining more than 450 total yards, 18-7-1 against teams with winning records, 4-9 against teams with winning road records, 3-7 after a straight up win, 2-5 in non-conference games, and 1-4 in Thursday games.
Auburn has rushed for over 200 yards in 13 straight games dating back to last season, including against Florida State in the BCS Championship game. That streak could be in jeopardy against the rugged rush defense of Kansas State. This should be a close low scoring game. I think 9 points is a little much on the road, but the Tigers pull out a close win.
