Arizona St Sun Devils at #19 Southern California Trojans
Saturday, November 10, 2012, 3:00 pm Eastern, TV: Pac 12 Network
Los Angeles Coliseum – Los Angeles, California
Opening Line: USC -11
Current Line: USC -8 1/2
Opening Total: 64
Current Total: 65
Opening Money Line: USC -355 / Arizona St +295
Current Money Line: USC -335 / Arizona St +285

Arizona St and USC are both coming off disappointing losses last week, but both still have hopes and dreams of winning the Pac 12 South division title and playing in the conference championship game for a trip to the Rose Bowl. Arizona St lost at Oregon St 36-26 and USC lost at home to Oregon 62-51.

Now ASU and USC meet in LA for what amounts to an elimination game for the division title. Arizona St is 3-3 in conference, and USC is 4-3. However both teams are behind 4-2 UCLA in the division.

This is the 29th meeting between USC and Arizona St. The Trojans lead the series 18-10. Arizona St won last year in Tempe 43-22 to snap an 11 game winning streak in the series for the Trojans. USC has won the last six in Los Angeles.

Arizona St is 5-4 overall under first year coach Todd Graham. The Sun Devils have lost three straight games after a 5-1 start. The Sun Devils have additional losses at Missouri 24-20 and home losses to Oregon 43-21 and UCLA 45-43. The Sun Devils have home wins against Northern Arizona 63-6, Illinois 45-14, Utah 37-7, and road wins at Cal 27-17 and Colorado 51-17. The Sun Devils are 5-4 ATS and the total is 4-4 this season. ASU was a 3.5 point underdog last week against Oregon St and the total was 55.5.

Arizona St is averaging 457.8 yards per game including 270.1 passing yards and 187.7 rushing yards. The Sun Devils are outscoring opponents 37-23 this season. ASU is 41st or better nationally in total offense, passing, rushing and scoring. The Sun Devils are +3 in turnovers with 15 giveaways. ASU has allowed 26 sacks. The Sun Devils are 59/148 on third and fourth down conversions and 40/52 scoring in the red zone with 31 touchdowns. On defense, Arizona St is allowing 333.3 yards per game including 161.6 passing yards and 171.8 rushing yards. The Sun Devils are #25 in total defense and #6 against the pass. They have forced 39 sacks and 18 turnovers this season. Sun Devil opponents are 55/155 on third and fourth down conversions, and 25/29 scoring in the red zone with 20 touchdowns. The Sun Devils have 4 defensive/special teams touchdowns.

ASU quarterback Taylor Kelly has completed 169 of 258 passes (65.5%) for 2,161 yards with 20 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, along with 97 carries for 383 yards. Kelly has been sacked 21 times this season. Running back D.J. Foster has 72 carries, 393 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 31 catches, 463 yards, and 4 touchdowns. Cameron Marshall has 96 carries, 396 yards and 6 touchdowns, along with 10 catches, 72 yards, and a touchdown. Marion Grice has 62 carries, 316 yards, and 6 touchdowns, along with 28 catches, 331 yards, and 7 touchdowns. Back-up quarterback Michael Eubank has 42 carries, 123 yards and 2 touchdowns. He has also thrown 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions this season. Receiver Chris Coyle has 43 catches, 501 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Rashad Ross has 21 catches, 335 yards, and a touchdown. He also has a kick return for a touchdown. Kevin Ozier has 17 catches, 246 yards and 5 touchdowns. Four defensive players and an offensive lineman are on the ASU injury report as questionable or out.

USC is 6-3 overall under coach Lane Kiffin. The Trojans have lost two straight games. The other losses for USC came at Stanford 21-14 and at Arizona 39-36. The Trojans have home wins over Hawaii 49-10, Cal 27-9, and against Colorado 50-6. USC has road wins over Syracuse 42-29 in New Jersey, at Utah 38-28, and Washington 24-14. The Trojans are 2-7 ATS and the total is 4-5 this season. USC was an 8 point underdog in the Oregon game and the total was 72.

USC is averaging 464.7 yards per game including, 312.7 passing yards and 152 rushing yards. On defense, the Trojans are allowing 406.4 yards per game including 249.6 passing yards and 156.9 rushing yards. USC is outscoring teams 37-24 this season. The Trojans have forced 24 turnovers this season, and have a turnover margin of +3. USC is averaging 78 penalty yards per game. The Trojans have allowed 12 sacks and forced 30 of their own. USC is 48/125 on third and fourth down conversions, and 31/39 scoring in the red zone with 26 touchdowns. Trojan opponents are 57/144 on third and fourth conversions, and 29/38 scoring in the red zone with 21 touchdowns. The Trojans have four defensive/special teams touchdowns.

USC quarterback Matt Barkley has completed 206 of 316 passes (65.2%) for 2,750 yards with 30 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He has been sacked 11 times this season. Running back Silas Redd has 135 carries, 732 yards and 9 touchdowns, along with 6 catches for 99 yards. Curtis McNeal has 52 carries, for 334 yards, along with 4 catches for 64 yards. D.J. Morgan has 35 carries, 186 yards and a touchdown, along with a receiving touchdown on his only catch. He is questionable with a leg injury after missing the Oregon game. Receiver Marqise Lee has 88 catches, 1,286 yards and 12 touchdowns, along with 44 rushing yards. Lee also has a kickoff return for a touchdown. Lee has asked coach Kiffin if he can play cornerback for the depleted Trojans defense as he was recruited as a safety. Robert Woods has 59 catches, 656 yards, and 10 touchdowns, along with 76 rushing yards. Lee and Woods are arguably the best receiver tandem in the country, but no other Trojan has more than 20 catches. Xavier Grimble has 4 touchdown catches, and Randall Telfer has 3. Tight end Christian Thomas is questionable this week with a hip injury. Thomas hasn’t played yet this season.   Seven Trojan defensive player are out indefinitely or for the season.

Arizona St is 5-2 ATS on grass, 3-7 in Pac 12 games, 2-5-1 against teams with winning records, and in road games, 9-24-2 in road games against teams with winning home records, 1-6 after a straight up loss and an ATS loss, and 0-5 in November. The Sun Devils have covered the last 4 times against USC. The underdog is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.

USC is 9-3 ATS after allowing more than 200 rushing yards, 7-3 after allowing 40 points or more, 16-7 after a straight up loss, 35-17 in November, 2-5 after allowing 450 total yards, 1-4 in conference games, and overall, 1-6 after a double digit home loss, 0-4 after scoring more than 40 points, against teams with winning records, and at home against teams with winning road records, and 0-5 after passing for 280 yards or more. The under is 3-1-1 in this series in the last 5 in LA.

Both of these teams are struggling right now. USC has really been disappointing after opening the season as the #1 team in the pre-season polls. The Trojans can’t stop anyone on defense, but I still think they have enough to beat ASU at home.

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