#4 Kansas St Wildcats at #13 West Virginia Mountaineers
Saturday, October 20, 2012, 7:00 pm Eastern, TV: Fox
Mountaineer Field – Morgantown, West Virginia
Opening Line: West Virginia -4
Current Line: West Virginia -2 1/2
Opening Total: 71 1/2
Current Total: 72
Opening Money Line: West Virginia -150 / Kansas St +130
Current Money Line: West Virginia -140 / Kansas St +120
Some of the luster was taken off this game last week when West Virginia went to Lubbock and was destroyed 49-14 by Texas Tech. So instead of a battle of undefeated top 5 teams, we get a battle of top 15 teams between Kansas St and West Virginia. A win for undefeated Kansas St would solidify them as the best team in the Big 12, but a West Virginia win would create a log jam for first place with four teams tied for first with one loss apiece. This is only the third ever meeting between Kansas St and West Virginia. The series is tied at 1-1 but they haven’t played since 1931. In case you were curious about that game 81 years ago, Kansas St won 19-0 in Morgantown.
Kansas St is coached by Bill Snyder. The Wildcats are 6-0 this season and 3-0 in the Big 12 with home wins over Missouri St 51-9, Miami-(FL) 52-13, North Texas 35-21, and Kansas 56-16. K-State also beat then #6 Oklahoma 24-19 in Norman a few weeks ago and beat Iowa St 27-21 last week in Ames. The Wildcats are 4-1-1 ATS and the total is 3-2. They were a 6 point favorite in the Iowa St game and the total was 48.5.
Kansas St is averaging 427.5 yards per game, including 179 passing yards and 248.5 rushing yards per game. The Wildcats are outscoring teams 40.8-16.5 this season. K-State is in the top 15 nationally in rushing and scoring offense. The Wildcats are +10 in turnovers for the season. Kansas St is 37/69 on third and fourth down conversions, and 28/33 scoring in the red zone with 21 touchdowns. The Wildcats have only allowed 4 sacks this season, which is remarkable when you consider how much quarterback Collin Klein runs with the ball. Kansas St is allowing 339.7 yards per game on defense including 238.3 passing yards and 101.3 rushing yards. Kansas St has struggled to stop the pass, but they are in the top 20 nationally against the run and in points allowed. Wildcat opponents are 37/95 on third and fourth down conversions, and 17/23 scoring in the red zone with 10 touchdowns. K-State has 14 sacks this season and has forced 14 turnovers.
Kansas St quarterback Collin Klein has completed 79 of 118 passes (66.9%) for 1,074 yards with 7 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He is also the second leading rusher with 98 carries, 510 yards and 10 touchdowns. Running back John Hubert has 98 carries, 606 yards, and 8 touchdowns, along with 8 catches for 26 yards. Back-up quarterback Daniel Sams has 20 carries, 194 yards and 3 touchdowns. Receiver Tramaine Thompson has 17 catches, 283 yards, and 3 touchdowns. he also has a punt return for a touchdown. Chris Harper has 19 catches, 258 yards, and a touchdown. Tyler Lockett has 13 catches and 197 yards and a touchdown, along with a kickoff return for a touchdown.Travis Tannahill has 9 catches, 136 yards and a touchdown.
West Virginia is 5-1 this season and 2-1 in the Big 12 in their first year in the conference. The Mountaineers are coached by Dana Holg0rsen. The Mountaineers have home wins over Marshall 69-34, James Madison 42-12 (at Landover, MD), Maryland 31-21, and Baylor 70-63, along with a win at Texas 48-45. West Virginia is 2-4 ATS and the total is 3-2 this season. The Mountaineers were 3 point favorites in the Texas Tech loss and the total was 74.5.
West Virginia is averaging 543.7 yards per game including 384.8 passing yards and 158.8 rushing yards. The Mountaineers are #7 in total offense and #3 passing nationally. West Virginia is outscoring teams 45.7-37.3 this season. The Mountaineers are also #7 in scoring offense. The Mountaineers are +7 in turnovers. West Virginia has allowed 8 sacks this year. The Mountaineers are 47/95 scoring in the red zone and 25/28 scoring in the red zone with 22 touchdowns. While the West Virginia offense is one of the best in the country, the defense is one of the worst. The Mountaineers are giving up 496 yards per game including 364.7 passing yards and 131.3 rushing yards. West Virginia is 112th or worse out of 124 FBS teams in total offense, against the pass, and in scoring defense. The rush defense is #42, but when teams can do so much damage through the air they really don’t have to run against the Mountaineers. WVU has forced 10 turnovers and 15 sacks. Mountaineer opponents are 54/105 on third and fourth down conversions and 25/20 scoring in the red zone with 21 touchdowns.
West Virginia quarterback Geno Smith came into last week as the Heisman Trophy frontrunner. Those chances took a hit when Texas Tech held him to 275 passing yards and a touchdown in the 49-14 rout. Smith is still having an incredible season with some video game type numbers. Smith has completed 195 of 259 passes (75.3%) for 2,271 yards with 25 touchdowns and no interceptions, along with 28 carries, 71 yards and a touchdown. Running back Andrew Buie has 104 carries for 504 yards and 5 touchdowns, along with 18 catches for 231 yards. Shawne Alston has 30 carries, 185 yards and 3 touchdowns. Alston is doubtful with a thigh injury. Dustin Garrison has 17 carries for 84 yards and a touchdown. If Alston can’t go, Garrison should get most of his carries. Receiver Stedman Bailey has 55 catches, 766 yards and 14 touchdowns. Bailey is questionable with an ankle injury. Tavon Austin has 67 catches, 761 yards and 8 touchdowns, along with 8 carries for 90 yards. J.D. Woods has 36 catches, 363 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Kansas St is 6-1-1 ATS in road games, 10-2-1 in road games against teams with winning home records, 5-1-1 in October, 5-1 after allowing less than 275 yards, 4-1-1 overall, 19-6-1 in conference games, 3-1-1 after a straight up win, 11-4 in fieldturf, 8-3 after allowing less than 100 rushing yards, and 5-2-1 against teams with winning records.
West Virginia is 4-0 ATS after a straight up loss, 6-2 after failing to cover, 5-2-1 after allowing more than 40 points, 5-2 after scoring less than 20 points, 1-4 in conference games, at home, against teams with winning records, and overall, 1-4-1 after allowing more than 280 passing yards, and 2-11 at home against teams with winning road records.
West Virginia is tough at home, but Kansas St already has road wins in Norman and Ames, two tough places to win. The West Virginia offense still has lots of weapons even if Alston and Bailey can’t go, but it will still affect the explosiveness. West Virginia is awful on pass defense, but fortunately Kansas St relies more on the run. Still, I think Kansas St pulls out a tight win on the road in a shootout.
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