Time: Noon EST, Sat
Spread: WIS -18
Total: 45
Odds from Bookmaker
The Wisconsin Badgers have got things together after suffering a three point loss to then-No. 22 Nebraska back in week 5. With wins over Illinois and Purdue, they’ve geared themselves up for a Big Ten rivalry game against the 4-2 Minnesota Golden Gophers.
The Badgers have excelled on the strength of their defense. In each of the last two weeks, they’ve allowed only 28 points between the two contests, which is two less than they gave up in the loss to Nebraska. In fact, they haven’t allowed more than 26 points in any game save that 30-27 loss to the Cornhuskers.
Last week against Purdue, RB Montee Ball went nuts. He rushed for 247 total yards on 29 carries and stormed his way in for three TDs, including a 67 yard trot that put the Badgers up 24-7 at the beginning of the third quarter. He’d score again in the early fourth to give Wisconsin a 31-7 lead, and save a late 81 yard TD run by Akeem Hunt, this game would have been an even worse blowout.
The Badgers defense gave up just 252 total yards to Purdue, who converted only 3-of-16 third downs, while maintaining possession for just 21 total minutes. Caleb TerBush of the Boilermakers was limited to just 80 yards in the air, while Wisconsin QB Joel Stave had over twice as many yards passing, with 178 yards on 12-of-21 passing. With Ball dominating on the ground and Stave airing it out, Wisconsin can be a very tough team to beat.
Minnesota started out the year 4-0 but they’ve lost the last two weeks to both Iowa and Northwestern. This will be their first matchup against a premier program, and it also offers their first chance at a Big Ten victory. It’s unlikely to happen, however, as they rank in the bottom third of scoring for NCAA D-1 programs (89th) with just 24.2 points per game.
If QB Max Shortell plays like he did last week, it definitely won’t happen: he managed just 103 yards in the air on 9-of-19 passing (47.4 percent) while failing to throw a TD and finishing with a QB rating of 92 for the game.
Expect the Wisconsin defense to rush Shortell into a lot of bad passes, and it will cause the Golden Gophers offense to rely heavily on the rushing of sophomore running back Donnell Kirkwood. Kirkwood has rushed for 467 yards on 111 carries (4.2 yards per carry) and scored three TDs on the year. It’s a long shot, but their air game will be thwarted by the tough Wisconsin secondary, making Kirkwood’s rushing their only shot at even covering the spread, while winning is highly improbable, according to college football oddsmakers, who have set the spread over two touchdowns in favor of the Badgers.
Minnesota Betting Trends:
5-1 ATS vs teams with winning records, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 following an SU loss, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 overall, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 in OCT.
Wisconsin Betting Trends:
5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs teams with winning records, 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following an ATS win, 4-12 ATS in their last 16 after allowing 275 total yards or less previous game, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 ayer accumulating 200+ yards rushing previous game, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 following an SU win of 20+
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