Pittsburgh (-3) at Miami – The Steelers opened as 3 point road favorites for their trip to South Beach, and the line has been rock solid. The public likes Pittsburgh at better than an 85% clip. Ben Roethlisberger was back for the Steelers’ win over the Browns. Cleveland hung around for awhile, but Pittsburgh ended up winning and covering the spread. The Steelers are +9 in turnovers this season, while Miami has only 5 takeaways, and 4 of those came in one game. But the Dolphins won another road game – their third of the season – to go to 3-2. Oddly, Miami is undefeated on the road and winless at home. If they can’t find a way to break through the Steeler rush defense, look for that trend to continue.
Atlanta (-3 ½) vs. Cincinnati – The Falcons opened as 4 point favorites over the visiting Cincinnati Bengals, but books have moved that down to 3 or 3 ½ points. The squares are betting Atlanta at more than 70%. The Falcons were no match for the Eagles last week. They were dominated at the line of scrimmage and never got into the game. They get to bounce back at home against a struggling Bengals team. Cincy is coming off their bye, which means they’ve been able to regroup. The team has been surprising ineffective on offense, though Terrell Owns is starting to come on. Carson Palmer needs to get in rhythm with the League’s best corps of receivers. It’s hard to believe this team won the AFC North last season.
San Diego (-3) vs. New England – San Diego started as 3 point home favorites, and the line hasn’t moved much, though 5 Dimes and SportBet are down to a single point. The public is backing the Patriots at 90%. The Chargers are 2-4, but 2-0 in San Diego. They’ve won 79-23 at home, and covered both games. They get a Patriots team that seems to be on a roll. New England came back against Baltimore and won in overtime last week. Their only loss this season came against the Jets on the road, which isn’t a bad loss. The absence of Randy Moss didn’t seem to be a factor last week.
Green Bay (-3) vs. Minnesota – The Pack opened as 3 point favorites over the visiting Vikes, but now books are listing the game anywhere between 1 ½ and 3 points. The squares are backing the Vikings at nearly 3:1. It’s hard to get a good read on this game. The Packers have been ravaged by injuries, and they’ve failed to cover the spread in their past 4 games. They’ve lost 3 out of 4 straight up, but if they can win this game they’re still looking good in the NFC North. Minnesota somehow managed to win against the Cowboys last week, despite failing to reach 200 yards of total offense. Defense and special teams were huge. Brett Favre has had off-the-field distractions, but his on-the-field performance needs to get better. When Sidney Rice comes back, this offense will be loaded.
Dallas (-3) vs. New York Giants – The Monday night game is an NFC East showdown. The home Cowboys started as 3 point faves, and after the line dipped a couple points some buy back on the Giants brought it back up to 3 points. The public is playing New York at just over 50%. The Giants have been hot lately. They’ve won 3 in a row straight up and gone 2-1 against the spread. The defense has been sensational. They have a tough game in the Big D against an underachieving Cowboy team still stinging from a tough loss to the Vikings. Even though Dallas hasn’t played well, they still have the talent to beat anyone in the NFL. The ‘Boys aren’t dead yet, but they’re close. They need this game.
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