Week 6 NCAA Football Picks: Cincinnati Bearcats at South Florida Bulls

Cincy-South Florida
Time: 7 PM ET, Oct 5 2013
Spread: CIN -12
M/L: CIN -460; SFL +365
O/U: 48

Odds courtesy of 5dimes

Considering the recent fate of the South Florida Bulls, it might seem surprising to some the team is just 12 point underdogs at 5dimes to a 3-1 Cincinnati team whose talent seems to outclass the Bulls by leaps and bounds.

Last week, South Florida faced then-No. 15 Miami and they were predictably lapped, losing 49-21. The squad ranks near the bottom of the nation in both passing yards (148.5, 114th) and rushing yardage (122.0) pacing an offense that produced just 14.5 points per game in the first four contests. The defense is also especially poor, giving up 37.8 points per game.

Marcus Shaw has really been the only moderately successful Bull. The back has rushed 77 times for 525 yards (6.8 yards per carry). QB Steven Bench has been fairly horrible with just a 41.2 percent completion ratio and even 2:2 ratio of TDs and INT.

Cincinnati has won back-to-back weeks after defeating NW St 66-9 and Miami of Ohio 14-0. The 3-1 Bearcats also opened the season with a 42-7 victory over Purdue, but lost to Illinois 45-17 on Sept 7. The Bearcats have a tough offense that can hurt teams via the pass or the rush. The Bearcats are ranked 48th in the nation in passing yardage (257 per game) and 27th in rushing yardage (222.8 per game). Defensively, only Illinois has really hurt the Bearcats, and it seems unlikely that South Florida does much. For the Fighting Illini, it was QB Nathan Scheelhaase who hurt the Bearcats. South Florida’s Steven Bench isn’t capable of doing that.

CIN

4-0 ATS in last 4 after scoring less than 20 in previous game; 4-0 ATS in last 4 on grass; 5-1 ATS vs teams with losing records

UNDER 6-0 in last 6 after allowing more than 280 passing yards previous game; 0-4 ATS in last 4 after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in previous game; 0-4-1 ATS in last 5 after allowing more than 280 yards previous game.