In week six of the NCAA Football season, this match-up between the #9 LSU Tigers and the #5 Florida Gators has ramifications in the SEC and the Top-25 nationally. The big game is scheduled for October 7, 2006 at 3:30 pm in the Gators’ Swamp.
#9 LSU Vs. #5 Florida
LSU Tigers (5-1) are looking to move up in the national rankings and establish credibility in the SEC today by defeating the Florida Gators (5- 0). That will be a tough job in what should be a close game.
The LSU defense is one of the best in the country. Even in their one loss this season to rival Auburn, the “D� was rough, tough and resilient, giving up only 7 points. They’ve allowed a mere 30 points total (6 PPG!) while scoring an average of 37.6 per game. Auburn shut this team out, but don’t expect that to happen to the Tigers today.
The Gators defense has been good too, giving up an average of only 9.4 points per game. They’ve scored 30.2 points per game against opponents. In week three, Florida got quite a scare when the Tennessee Volunteers came close to beating them. The final score was 21-20.
It all starts for the LSU offense with QB JaMarcus Russell (70.4% COMP, 10 TD, 1 INT), who is in this third and best year at the helm. He has plenty of targets to hit, including Craig Davis (15.8 YDS/REC, 1 TD), Dwayne Bowe (16.8 YDS/REC, 3 TD) and Early Doucet (15.1 YDS/REC, 4 TD). The effective LSU running game features four backs, with Charles Scott (6.1 YD/ATT, 5 TD) Jacob Hester (4.5 YD/ATT, 4 TD) and Alley Broussard (3.3 YD/ATT, 3 TD) seeing the ball the most.
Perhaps the biggest match-up for Florida will be the one involving DT Marcus Thomas—a sack-master and disruptive force on the field. Thomas was suspended a few weeks ago and his reinstatement on Thursday has given the Gator D a big lift. Florida safety Reggie Nelson will be a major factor in Florida’s secondary. If Russell and his receivers can beat Nelson, they beat Florida. The Gators’ defense can stop the run but they will have a hard time against a solid LSU offensive line, the team’s supply of fresh running backs and the talent of QB Russell.
The Gators are up against the top-ranked defense in the nation. The LSU front four is intimidating, fast, smart and confident. They are a team inside a team. Additionally, the Tigers have a top notch secondary.
But don’t underestimate Gator QB Chris Leak (64.6% COMP, 14 TD, 4 INT), who has compiled 1,240 yards in the air this season. RW Dallas Baker (27 REC, 16.6 YDS/ATT, 5 TD) is his go-to guy. LSU free safety LaRon Landry will be charged with keeping this part of the explosive Florida offense contained. Jemalle Cornellus (14 REC, 20.4 YDS/ATT, 3 TD) is also a long ball threat, while Andre Caldwell (16 REC, 9.4 YDS/ATT, 3 TD) is an efficient and reliable short range guy.
A major concern for the Gators is the status of RB DeShawn Wynn (64 ATT. 5.5 YDS/ATT, 3 TD). Wynn, who sprained a knee last week against Alabama, has had his status downgraded to doubtful. Sophomore Kestahn Moore (30 ATT, 5.3 YDS/ATT, 2 TD) is his backup, while back-up QB Tim Tebow (32 ATT, 6.0 YDS/ATT, 2 TD) has the second-most carries and yards on the ground for Florida.
If this comes down to a field goal, LSU has the advantage with a 100% success rate by the tandem of Ryan Gaudet and Colt David, while Florida’s place kicker Chris Hetland is 0 for 3 in attempts this season.
Since Auburn in 1988, no SEC visitor has been favored in the Swamp. That makes LSU a rarity. The team from Louisiana will be a massive test for the Gators. Most network sports analysts are giving the Tigers a one to 3.5 point advantage. However the spread amongst sportsbooks is inconsistent, with the only sure thing being that there is no unanimity in the spread. One book favors Florida by 2.5, another favors LSU by 1.5, many others give Florida the edge by 1 and others have the game as even.
With Florida’s possible loss of loss DeShawn Wynn and inadequate back-ups, LSU’s balanced attack and unforgiving defense and the disparity between kicking games, I’m taking LSU with as many points as I can get. Then again, I picked the Twins to beat the A’s in this year’s playoffs.
Technorati Tags: LSU Tigers, Florida Gators, DeShawn Wynn, SEC Football
