Given the way Dallas has struggled, and with Tennessee’s ability to run the football, the Titans have good value in this game. If Dallas had played consistently well to this point in the season, then maybe a 7 point spread would be justified. But the ‘Boys have been terribly disappointing, with the exception of the Houston game. This line should probably be in the neighborhood of 4 ½ to 5 ½ points, which means Tennessee has value in this match-up.
The technical numbers show that both teams are solid plays in this situation, but Tennessee has an edge. Against the spread over the past three seasons, the Titans are 6-1 in non-conference games, 10-7 on the road, 6-4 as an underdog, and 8-4 when playing a team with a losing record. Also, since 1992, Tennessee is 13-4 against the NFC East. Two weeks ago, Tennessee beat up on the Giants on the road, 29-10. For Dallas over the past three seasons, they’re 11-8 ats at home, 16-15 as a favorite, 3-6 in non-conference games, and 2-0 after the bye. Since 1992, Dallas is 6-3 ats against the AFC South.
Tennessee lost last week to the Denver Broncos at home as a 6 point favorite. But that’s not all bad for the Titans. Earlier this year, Tennessee lost to Pittsburgh at home as a 6 point favorite, and then bounced back on the road at an NFC East opponent – the New York Giants – and won the game going away. That is the same situation in this game.
For Dallas, they’re playing their second home game of the season. In the first, the Cowboys got outplayed by the Bears, losing 27-20 as 7 point favorites. Here again, Dallas is a 7 point home favorite. Just based on how this season has played out so far, Tennessee seems to be in a nice situation.
Another reason for liking Tennessee is the Vince Young rule. Whenever Vince Young is getting points, that’s a good play. Seriously, I think oddsmakers should adjust the line -3 to compensate for Vince Young whenever he is an underdog. College or pro – it doesn’t matter. The guy is a winner, and I’m happy to take a full touchdown with Vince Young against a team that has failed to live up to expectations.
Dallas is tough coming off the bye, and that is reason for concern. But this team seems like a collective head-case. If they have an extra week to think about who they are as a team, that might create more anxiety than energy. All of the pressure is on Dallas, not Tennessee.
This line feels like it’s a couple points too high. The Titans have stronger situational numbers, Dallas has underperformed, and Vince Young is a great underdog play. Don’t be afraid to back the Titans.
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