Florida-Kentucky
Time: 7 PM ET, Sept 28
Spread: FLA -11.5
M/L: FLA -450, KY +360
O/U: 48.5
Odds courtesy of 5dimes
The 2-1 Florida Gators come in ranked 20th this week after defeating SEC rival Tennessee 31-17 at Gainsville. The team now travels to Lexington, KY to face the University of Kentucky in a game college football oddsmakers favor the visiting Gators by 11.5 points.
The season ending injury to Jeff Driskel promoted Tyler Murphy to starting quarterback, and he has huge shoes to fill. It’s too early to say Driskel’s injury has killed the Gators’ SEC title hopes, but Murphy is unlikely to throw near a 70 percent completion ratio, which puts a lot of pressure on Mack Brown to produce in the back field. The problem is that Brown and Matt Jones both average under four yards per carry, and the only other effective option has been Murphy himself (10 carries for 84 yards). The offense will do well to stay pass-heavy with options like Solomon Patton, Quinton Dunbar and Trey Burton, but it remains unclear whether Murphy has the arm to generate the same results as Driskel.
Kentucky hung tough with Louisville last week but lost to Teddy Bridgewater and the Cardinals 27-13. The loss came after a big 41-7 trouncing of Miami (OH) in week 2, but the Wildcats lost their most rivaled game so far, the opener to Western Kentucky. Now 1-2, the team will have trouble getting back on track against a tough defense like Florida’s.
The Wildcats balance the rush and pass nearly equally, ranking 35th in the nation in passing yards and 39th in rushing yards, but the Kentucky defense did give up 492 yards to Louisville, 250 via the air. Florida could get their receiving corp going against the Kentucky secondary, though a high scoring affair is not predicted by college football oddsmakers at 5dimes, who set the total at just 48.5
FLA
4-0 ATS vs teams with losing records; 0-4 ATS in last 4 after allowing less than 170 passing yards previous week; 0-4 ATS in last 4 overall
KY
UNDER 4-0 in last 4 conf games; UNDER 5-0 in last 5 at home; UNDER 4-0 in last 4 following SU loss
Head-to-head: Gators 6-0 ATS in last 6; Favorite 6-0 ATS in last 6.
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