Panthers-Buccaneers
Time: 1 PM ET, Oct 4 2015
Spread: CAR -3.5
M/L: CAR -170; TAM +150
Total: 40
Betting odds c/o Bovada
The Carolina Panthers have started the season with a perfect 3-0 record and Cam Newton is slowly erasing the last of his doubters. The dual-threat dynamic QB has been everything Carolina hoped he would be when drafted, with 685 passing yards on the season and an additional 144 via the rush. This week Newton and company will travel to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a game oddsmakers are setting close, favoring Carolina by 3.5 points while setting the over/under at a low ’40.’
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Newton is producing after signing an extension over the offseason and Carolina could not be more pleased. The Panthers are off to its best start since 2003, and Luke Kuechly has yet to even suit up. The Panthers’ ‘D’ has been superb, even without Luke, who is likely to miss this week as well.
The Panthers also will be without Charles Johnson till at least Thanksgiving, but it acquired an adequate replacement for a 6th round pick in Jared Allen. Allen is expected to start alongside former Bears’ teammate Charles Tillman. The defense still should be strong enough to put the clamps on a rookie QB (who has no backfield to speak of in support his cause).
The Bucs have thus far been a little disappointed with No. 1 overall pick Jameis Winston, though he is showing signs of coming to life. Winston is throwing just 52.2 percent for completion and was good for only 47.2 percent last week, but he still has 678 yards on the season. Most troubling, however, is the fact he has already fumbled three times and thrown three INTs, as well.
The turnovers have had a decimating effect as the team was routed by lowly Tennessee in Week 1 (Yes, the Titans have improved) and it suffered a 9-19 loss to the Houston Texans last week. In its lone win, Winston was far more efficient, throwing 14 of 21 for 207 yards with a TD, also completing his first NFL game and only NFL game without a single INT. Can he avoid the miscues this week, though?
Perhaps worse than Winston’s struggles has been the lack of production in the Bucs’ backfield, though coming into the season no one was really expecting much from a mishmash crew of mediocre talents.
No. 1 back Doug Martin has 176 yards on the season but is averaging just 3.8 yards per carry had has already fumbled once (lost) while having completed only one attempt for more than 20 yards (and it was 20 exactly for that matter). No other Bucs back has rushed for more than 12 yards on a play, and no one is averaging more than 3.4 yards per carry (which comes from the QB position, at that).
Tampa Bay is providing Winston with targets, but he has been unable to hit them for the most part. No Bucs receiver has more than an average of three receptions per game, though it does boast some depth at the wide out slots. Finding a consistent source of production is paramount for a team that has a talented Heisman winner, and the backfield is unlikely to suddenly overcome its lack of talent.
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Carolina has had better results from the rush, though a lot of that success has come from Newton rushing. No. 1 back Jonathan Stewart is averaging just 3.5 yards per carry and has yet to rush for a TD, while Newton has a pair. He’s also earned the Panthers just five first downs on the season and only rushed for 20-plus yards on one of his 49 rushing attempts. Outside of Newton and Stewart, the rest of the Panthers account for just 18 rushing plays, and only Mike Tolbert has experienced any semblance of success there with 11 of those plays for a total of 59 yards.
TE Greg Olsen is unsurprisingly the best receiving option for Newton. He’s managed to lead the team with 15 catches (though he’s been targeted 28 times already) and leads in yardage too with 215 on the year. Olsen has scored two TDs and helped the Panthers to 12 first downs. Outside of him, the only WR really producing well is Ted Ginn, Jr. who has 188 yards on 10 catches for a team best 18.8 yards per reception.
The Panthers may have an unconventional method of success, but Tampa Bay lacks even that. Its backfield is as poor as preseason projections rendered it and Winston is still inexperienced and mistake prone. Though the Bucs are just 3.5 point dogs in this contest, it is quite possible that the team may lose by double-digits.
Carolina is building steam for a strong season while the Bucs are mostly in disarray. NFL oddsmakers are seldom far off the mark, but Newton alone should be enough to pick apart the Bucs’ ‘D’ and if Stewart can just grind it out while getting a couple more yards per carry, this will turn into an easy Panthers win.
It’s still not too late to ride the gravy train with a paid pick plan for the 2015-16 NFL season!
