Dolphins/Patriots
Time: NOON CST
Spread: NE -8
M/L: NE -420; MIA +310
Total: 48
Betting odds c/o Bovada
The 7-6 Miami Dolphins fell 28-13 last week to the Baltimore Ravens and has dropped two of its past three contests. Miami will look to get back on track in New England where NFL betting at Bovada shows the odds at 8-points in favor of the hosting Patriots.
Miami has had a tough pass defense all season. The Phins give up just 203.2 yards per game, which ranks 3rd in the NFL. The rush defense ranks in the bottom third, but the Dolphins have been a tough team defensively most weeks. In Week 1, the Dolphins defeated New England 33-20 in Miami. That week, the Dolphins outscored New England 23-0 in the second half of the game while also amassing 360 yards in the contest and holding the Pats to 315.
QB Ryan Tannehill has shown a lot of improvement, but he still has areas to work on to be sure. He’s thrown for 3,044 yards this season at a 66.7 percent clip, but he averages only 6.7 yards per attempt and 216 yards per game. He’s kept his INTs low (nine), but he has just 21 TDs on the season. Tannehill has been sacked 34 times and has a 92.6 rating. It’s improvement, but as he has gone, so have gone the Dolphins.
Tannehill averages 7.45 yards per reception in wins, but just 5.88 in Dolphins’ losses. His rating is nearly 17 points higher in wins. In his first two NFL seasons, Tannehill threw for just 58.3 and 60.4 percent completions, respectively. He has increased every facet of is game, including his ability to protect the football. After suffering six fumbles last season, he’s kept that to two through 13 games, which is more than acceptable.
In the backfield, the Dolphins have benefitted mostly from primary running back Lamar Miller, who has rushed for 782 yards on a 4.8 yard per carry average. He has six TDs on the season and averages 60.2 yards per game. Miller has also caught for 207 yards on 32 receptions.
Tannehill is second on the team in rushing yardage and leads the team in yards per carry, with 295 yards and a 6.3 yard average. He’s rushed four times for 20-plus yards, too. Three other Phins have rushed for 100 yards or more (including Knowshon Moreno whose season was cut short).
At WR, Mike Wallace and Jarvis Landry lead the way with over 1,200 total yards between them, and 12 TDs. Charles Clay has 387 yards on 41 receptions. He suffered a hamstring and knee set back in practice and is questionable to appear in this contest. Brian Hartline has 34 receptions for 380 yards and two TDs on the season. The Dolphins as a team have 21 receiving TDs on the season and just nine via the rush.
New England is 10-3 and in 1st place in the AFC East. The Patriots won last week over San Diego 23-14 after suffering a loss to Green Bay in Week 13. The loss to the Packers had been the first Green Bay loss since a Week 4 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.
On the arm of Mr. Tom Brady, the Pats rank 7th in the NFL in passing yardage with 272.6 yards per game, while ranking 19th in rush offense (109 yards per game). The Pats defense limits opponents to 349.8 yards per game, with the strength being limiting opposing rush offenses to 105.6 per.
Leading rusher Shane Vereen is battling an ankle injury but is expected to play. Vereen has 347 yards on the year and an additional 409 yards via receptions. Vereen has also caught three TD passes.
Throwing the pass, the Pats benefit from TE Rob Gronkowski, who has caught for 997 yards and 10 TDs on the season. He’s good for 13.7 yards per catch and has caught a TD in four of the past five games. Julian Edelman and Brandon LaFell have caught for 1,600-plus yards between them. LaFell has a shoulder injury but is expected to play.
Rob Ninkovich has been a beast defensively this year with seven sacks on the season. Dont’a Hightower and Chandler Jones has 4.5 and Jamie Collins has another 3.0.
Stephen Gostkowski has missed just two field goals on the season and is 12-of-13 from 40-plus yards, while having hit 44-of-44 X-tra points. Ryan Allen is punting for an average of 45.9 yards this season and has kicked six for touchback.
Online football betting features a 48 point total, which 80 percent of the experts had chosen the ‘under’ on according to Covers.com.
