West Virginia Mountaineers at Texas Christian Horned Frogs
Amon Carter Stadium – Fort Worth, Texas
Saturday, November 2, 2013, 3:30 pm Eastern, TV: ESPNU
Opening Line: TCU -14
Current Line: TCU -12
Opening Total: 46
Current Total: 45
Opening Money Line: TCU -460 / West Virginia +360
Current Money Line: TCU -470 / West Virginia +400
Both the TCU Horned Frogs and West Virginia Mountaineers are 3-5 overall and 1-4 in the Big 12 as they meet Saturday in Fort Worth. They are both ahead of 0-4 Iowa State and Kansas but all four along with 1-3 Kansas State are among the have-nots in the Big 12 this season. The other five teams in the conference have one or fewer conference losses. This is the third ever meeting between TCU and West Virginia and the first in Fort Worth. The series is tied 1-1. TCU won 39-38 last year in Morgantown in double overtime. Both teams joined the Big 12 last season.
West Virginia is coached by Dana Holgorsen. The Mountaineers have home wins over William and Mary 24-17, Georgia State 41-7, and Oklahoma State 30-21, along with road losses at Oklahoma 16-7, Maryland 37-0 (in Baltimore), at Baylor 73-42 and last week at Kansas State 35-12. West Virginia lost at home to Texas Tech 37-27. West Virginia is 2-6 ATS and the total is 2-6 this season. The Mountaineers were 13.5 point underdogs against Kansas State and the total was 52.5.
West Virginia took a 9-7 lead at halftime against Kansas State, but the Mountaineers had an extra point blocked. West Virginia kicked a field goal early in the third to make it 12-7. Kansas State would score 28 straight points to close out the game and win 35-12. It was the third straight loss for West Virginia all by double digits. The Mountaineers had 367 total yards including 264 passing yards. The Wildcats had 448 total yards including 191 passing and 157 rushing yards. West Virginia had 3 turnovers and K-State had 2.
West Virginia is being outscored 30-23 this season. WVU is #98 nationally in scoring and #84 in points allowed, out of 125 teams. The Mountaineers are averaging 395.8 yards per game on offense, including 248.8 passing and 147 rushing yards. WVU is #79 in total offense and #90 in rushing nationally. On defense, West Virginia is allowing 452.9 total yards per game, including 261.4 passing and 191.5 rushing yards. The Mountaineers are #92 or worse in all three categories nationally. West Virginia is even in turnovers with 19 takeaways and 19 giveaways. The Mountaineers are averaging 52 penalty yards per game, and opponents are averaging 59. WVU is 41/135 on third and fourth down conversions, and opponents are 58/129. West Virginia has allowed 16 sacks and forced 10 this season. The Mountaineers are 17/22 scoring in the red zone with 10 touchdowns, and opponents are 28/34 with 19 touchdowns. West Virginia has 3 defensive touchdowns and has allowed 1 this season.
West Virginia quarterback Paul Millard started the first two games but was largely ineffective. He was benched in favor of freshman Ford Childress for the next two games. Childress has completed 57.1% of his passes for 421 yards with 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He struggled against Maryland throwing for only 62 yards and 2 interceptions. Childress injured his pectoral muscle and is out indefinitely. Florida State transfer Clint Trickett has started the last four games including the upset over previously undefeated Oklahoma State. Trickett has thrown for 951 yards with 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, along with a rushing touchdown. Millard has taken a few snaps the last 3 games. Millard has thrown for 618 yards with 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.
Running back Charles Sims has 120 carries, 600 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 33 catches for 265 yards and a touchdown. Dreamius Smith has 80 carries, 394 yards and 4 touchdowns. Wendell Smallwood has 22 carries, 144 yards and a touchdown, along with 4 catches for 43 yards. Receiver Ronald Carswell has 20 catches, 413 yards and 2 touchdowns. Kevin White has 24 catches, 377 yards and 3 touchdowns. Daikiel Shorts has 31 catches, 332 yards and 2 touchdowns. Ivan McCartney has 9 catches, 132 yards and a touchdown. K.J. Myers, Devonte Mathis, and Mario Alford will also get significant catches. Twelve Mountaineer defensive players are listed on the injury report including six linebackers.
TCU is coached by Gary Patterson. The Horned Frogs have home wins over SE Louisiana 38-17, SMU 48-17, and Kansas 27-17. TCU has a loss to LSU in Arlington, Texas 37-27, plus road losses at Texas Tech 20-10, Oklahoma 20-17 and Oklahoma State 24-10. Last week, the Horned Frogs lost at home to Texas 30-7. TCU is 2-6 ATS and the total is 3-5 this season. The Horned Frogs were 3 point favorites at home against Texas and the total was 49.
The Texas-TCU game was delayed for more than 3 hours in the second quarter due to rain and lightning in the Forth Worth area. Texas took a 10-7 lead in the first quarter. The Longhorns expanded the lead to 20-7 by halftime. Texas would add 10 points in the second half to make the final 30-7. Texas had 415 total yards including 187 rushing yards. TCU had 246 total yards including 201 passing yards. The two teams combined for 14 penalties for 136 yards and 5 turnovers.
Texas Christian is outscoring teams 23-22.8 this season. TCU is #95 in scoring nationally and #36 in points allowed. The Horned Frogs are #116 in total offense out of 125 teams averaging just 319.8 yards per game including 192.4 passing yards and 127.4 rushing yards. TCU is #100 in passing and #102 rushing nationally. On defense, TCU is allowing 349.8 yards per game including 225.5 passing and 124.2 rushing yards. TCU is #20 in rush defense and #22 in total defense nationally. The Horned Frogs are +3 in turnovers with 21 takeaways. TCU averages 61 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 51. Texas Christian is 36/122 on third and fourth down conversions, and opponents are 50/138. The Frogs have forced 24 sacks and allowed 18 this season. TCU is 22/25 scoring in the red zone with 14 touchdowns, and opponents are 23/29 with 12 touchdowns. The Horned Frogs have 2 kickoff returns for touchdowns and a pick six and have allowed a punt return for a touchdown and a pick six.
TCU quarterback Casey Pachall broke his arm earlier in the season and returned last week against Texas, a couple of weeks ahead of schedule. Pachall has thrown for 314 yard with 2 interceptions, along with 29 rushing yards. Trevone Boykin took over as the starter once Pachall was injured. Boykin has completed 59.2% of his passes for 1,176 yards with 5 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, along with 88 carries for 271 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Running back B.J. Catalon has 74 carries, 366 yards and 5 touchdowns, along with 8 catches for 68 yards and a kick return for a touchdown. Waymon James has 51 carries, 242 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 7 catches. Receiver LaDarius Brown has 23 catches, 216 yards and a touchdown, along with a kick return for a touchdown. Brandon Carter has 17 catches for 197 yards. Josh Doctson, Cam White, David Porter and Deanta’ Gray will also get significant targets. White is questionable with a concussion.
West Virginia is 11-0 ATS against teams with losing home records, 5-2 on grass, 3-9-1 after allowing more than 280 passing yards, 1-4 after a straight up loss by 20 points or more, and in road games, 1-5 overall and after scoring less than 20 points.
TCU is 6-2 ATS against teams with losing records, 12-5 against teams with losing road records, 16-7 in November, 1-4 after a straight up loss, and after scoring less than 20 points, 2-8 overall and on grass, 1-5 after failing to cover, and in Big 12 games, 1-6 after rushing for 100 yards or less, 1-7 after a straight up loss of 20 points or more, and 1-8 at home.
Neither one of these teams is very good. However, TCU shouldn’t be a double digit favorite over anyone right now. Their offense has really gone in the tank and there is no guarantee they will even score 12 points much less be favored by that many. TCU wins but it will be a close defensive struggle something like 13-10, even against a West Virginia defense decimated by injuries,
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