Colorado Buffaloes at #20 UCLA Bruins
Rose Bowl – Pasadena, California
Saturday, November 2, 2013, 7:30 pm Eastern, TV: Fox Sports 1
Opening Line: UCLA -24
Current line: UCLA -28 1/2
Opening Total: 57
Current Total: 58 1/2
Opening Money Line: UCLA -3500 / Colorado +1500
Current Money Line: UCLA -4000 / Colorado +1600
After two straight losses at Stanford and Oregon the 5-2 UCLA Bruins come back to the Rose Bowl for a homecoming tilt against the 3-4 Colorado Buffaloes. UCLA is tied with Arizona at 2-2 in the Pac 12 South behind 4-1 Arizona State and 3-2 USC. Both Arizona State and USC have already played and won this weekend. Arizona plays at a terrible Cal team. Colorado is 0-4 in conference. UCLA leads the series 6-2 against Colorado. The Bruins won last year in Boulder 42-14.
Colorado is coached by Mike MacIntyre in his first season. The Buffaloes opened the season with wins in Denver 41-27 over Colorado State and at home over Central Arkansas 38-24. The Buffs also beat Charleston Southern in Boulder 43-10 which was a replacement game after Colorado had a home game against Fresno State cancelled because of flooding in Boulder several weeks ago. Colorado lost at Oregon State 44-17 and Arizona State 54-13 and were crushed at home against Oregon 57-16 and Arizona last week 44-20.. The Buffaloes are 3-4 ATS and the total is 5-2 this season. Colorado was a 12 point underdog at home against Arizona and the total was 59.5.
Arizona took a 10-7 lead in the first quarter at Colorado. The Wildcats would expand the lead to 24-13 by halftime. Arizona kicked a field goal to go up 27-13 but Colorado pulled to within 27-20. Arizona scored the last 17 points of the game to make the final 44-20. The Wildcats had 670 total yards including 405 rushing yards. The Buffaloes had 349 total yards including 212 passing yards. Arizona had penalties for 69 yards and overcame 2 turnovers. Colorado had one turnover.
Colorado is being outscored 37-27 this season. Colorado is #112 out of 125 FBS teams in points allowed and #81 in scoring. The Buffaloes are #89 in total offense averaging 377.3 total yards per game including 249.4 yards per game but the rushing attack is #101 at 127.9 yards per game. On defense, Colorado is allowing 475.6 total yards per game including 268 passing and 207.6 rushing yards. Colorado is #105 or worse in all three categories.. The Buffaloes are even in turnovers with 14 takeaways. Colorado is averaging 48 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 44. The Buffaloes are 36/109 on third and fourth down conversions, and opponents are 50/129. Colorado is 13/16 scoring in the red zone with six touchdowns, and opponents are 32/39 with 24 touchdowns. The Buffaloes have 3 defensive touchdowns this season. Colorado has forced 10 sacks and allowed 12 this season.
Quarterback Connor Wood has completed 53.2% of his passes for 1,092 yards with 8 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, along with 22 carries. He has been benched in favor of freshman Sefo Liufau, who started the last two games. Liufau has completed 62.8% of his passes for 579 yards with 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, along with 15 carries for 35 yards. .
Running back Michael Adkins III has 65 carries for 369 yards and 5 touchdowns, along with 6 catches. He is doubtful after suffering a concussion in the second half against Arizona. Christian Powell has 82 carries for 279 yards and 2 touchdowns along with 3 catches. Tony Jones has 44 carries for 175 yards along with 7 catches. Receiver Paul Richardson has 50 catches, 914 yards and 7 touchdowns, and he also has a touchdown pass. He is questionable with an ankle injury. Nelson Spruce has 26 catches, 303 yards and 2 touchdown. D.D. Goodson has 12 catches for 203 yards and 2 touchdowns. Kicker Justin Castor is out for the season with a hip injury. Tight end Alex Wood is questionable with a concussion. Fullback Clay Jones is questionable with a neck injury.
UCLA is coached by Jim Mora, Jr. The Bruins have losses at Stanford 24-10 and last week against Oregon 42-14 after a 5-0 start. UCLA has home wins over Nevada 58-20, New Mexico State 59-13, and California 37-10, along with road wins at Nebraska 41-21 and Utah 34-27. The Bruins are 5-2 ATS this season and the total is 2-5 this season. UCLA was a 23.5 point underdog at Oregon last week and the total was 75.
UCLA and Oregon were tied at 14 at halftime last week. Oregon took a 21014 late in the third quarter. The Bruins hung with the high powered Ducks for 3 quarters but Oregon proved to be too much with 21 fourth quarter points to win 42-14. UCLA had 283 total yards including 219 rushing yards. Oregon had 555 total yards. including 325 total yards. Each team had 5 penalties and 2 turnovers.
UCLA is outscoring teams 36-22. The Bruins are #32 in scoring and #33 in points allowed nationally. UCLA is averaging 469.1 yards per game including 267.7 passing and 201.4 rushing. The Bruins are #41 or better nationally in all three categories. On defense, UCLA is allowing 385.4 yards per game including 213 passing and 172.4 rushing. The Bruins are #32 in pass defense nationally. UCLA is +3 in turnovers with 14 takeaways. The Bruins average 75 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 55. UCLA is 59/113 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 43/119. The Bruins have forced 15 sacks and allowed 17 this season. UCLA is 30/35 with 23 touchdowns and opponents are 18/24 with 14 touchdowns. The Bruins have a punt return for a touchdown and have allowed a pick six.
UCLA quarterback Brett Hundley has completed 67% of his passes for 1,725 yards with 14 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, along with 87 carries for 359 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns. He also caught a touchdown pass. Running back Jordan James has 74 carries for 463 yards with 5 touchdowns. He is probable Saturday with an ankle injury after missing last week against Oregon. Paul Perkins has 71 carries 331 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 14 catches for 133 yards. Malcolm Jones has 33 carries, 165 yards and 3 carries, along with 3 catches, 51 yards and a touchdown. Steven Manfro has 18 carries for 60 yards and a touchdown, along with 7 catches for 107 yards and a touchdown. He is questionable with an ankle injury, and little used running back Roosevelt Davis is also questionable with a foot injury.
Receiver Shaquelle Evans has 27 catches, 340 yards and 5 touchdowns. Devin Fuller has 31 catches, 318 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with a touchdown pass to Hundley. Jordan Payton has 20 catches, 283 yards, and a touchdown. Paul Perkins has 14 catches for 133 yards. Four defensive players and three offensive linemen are listed on the injury report.
Colorado is 6-14 ATS after failing to cover, 3-7 after allowing more than 40 points and 450 yards or more, 15-36 in road games, 6-15 after a straight up loss, 8-20 after a straight up loss of more than 20 points, 8-21 overall, 9-24 against teams with winning home records, 6-16 on grass, 8-22 against teams with winning records, and 6-20 in conference games.
UCLA is 4-0 ATS after allowing more than 200 rushing yards, 7-2 after failing to cover, 6-2 against teams with losing road records, 10-4 at home, 5-2 overall and after scoring 20 points or less, 7-3 on grass, 9-4 after a straight up loss of 20 points or more, 17-35-1 against teams with losing records, and 2-8 after passing for less than 170 yards.
Colorado isn’t exactly an offensive juggernaut even without Adkins and Richardson. If those two can’t go the offense will be even worse. UCLA should be angry after two straight losses and will take out their frustrations on the Buffaloes for homecoming. UCLA rolls in this game.
