Week 1 of NFL football brings six running backs up against some evening prop bets. The L.A. Rams kickoff at 4 PM (CT) with Todd Gurley going at it, and the Dallas Cowboys’ superstar Ezekiel Elliot will have a heady 90-yard mark to best in his quest at Bovada prop bets.
We will take a look at six running back prop bets for the Sunday games that start at 4 PM or later today.
All betting odds are taken courtesy of Bovada.lv
Todd Gurley over/under 72.5 rushing yards
Over (-130); Under (EVEN)
Todd Gurley closed the season with some struggles in 2016. In his final five games, he failed to rush for more than 70 yards in all of them. The third-year running back only had three games of 70-yards or greater the entire season, and Gurley was at or below 40 yards in three of his first five games last year.
Gurley did not face the Colts last season, which makes predicting this somewhat harder, but given his lack of big game production (his high game last year was just 85 yards), the UNDER on this is more attractive—even with the ‘even’ betting odds produced by NFL oddsmakers at Bovada. UNDER it is.
Ty Montgomery over/under 75.5 rushing yards
Over (-105); Under (-125)
Ty Montgomery led the Green Bay Packers with 457 yards last season, but he is not a big yardage rusher. He had 47 yards or less in all five of 2016’s final five games, and he is not a huge end zone threat (though that hardly matters here). He basically had one monster game last season with 162 yards against the Chicago Bears, but everything else he did was mediocre to bad.
Sure, Montgomery could make big strides heading into his third NFL season, but he didn’t have a decent game until Week 6 against, yes, the Bears, last year. With him only having had three decent games last season and two of them coming against woeful Chicago, this is a bet we really like the UNDER on a lot. And it offers good payout at -125, especially considering Montgomery only had one game better than this mark in his second season a year ago. UNDER.
Jonathan Stewart over/under 52.5 rushing yards
Over (-115); Under (-115)
Jonathan Stewart rushed for 50 yards or more in all five of his final games in 2016, and he had three games in that stretch with 65 yards or more—including a 132-yard outburst against the Washington Redskins on Dec. 19 last season. The 10th-year veteran is fairly consistent and though he had just nine yards on five carries against San Francisco last year, we like his chances of opening the season with a big game this year.
Last year’s opener saw Stewart rush for 64 yards on 15 carries against the Denver Broncos and by Week 3 and 4 he had hit stride with 85 and 95 yards against the New Orleans Saints and Arizona Cardinals respectively. 52.5 yards is not asking a lot of Stewart provided he gets at least the high-teens in carries. Given that Newton may be facing minor issues still with his shoulder, it could be that the Panthers turn to Stewart to keep Newton’s arm fresh. OVER.
Carlos Hyde over/under 67.5 rushing yards
Over (-115); Under (-115)
Carlos Hyde is a wild card, but he is a great wildcard. The fourth-year running back from Ohio State finished 2016 with a few monster games, including a 193-yard game on just 17 carries in a 17-23 loss to the New York Jets on Dec. 11, 2016. Hyde is going to see a ton of touches in the 49ers new offense, and the team went to him a lot during the preseason.
Given that he will get the touches, we expect the production to come right with it—plus Hyde is a good performer in season openers. In last year’s he had 88 yards on 23 carries as the Panthers blanked the L.A. Rams to start its 2016 season. Hyde also rushed for 80 yards or more in five games last season. We love the OVER here.
Ezekiel Elliot over/under 90.5 rushing yards
Over (-115); Under (-115)
Ezekiel Elliot rushed for 1,600-plus yards as a rookie and simply put, he is the real deal. In his last outing against the New York Giants, Elliot had 107 yards on 24 carries, and while 4.5 yards per rush is not amazing, it is consistent and good. He also rushed for 80 yards or more in four of the season’s final five games, with three of those contests topping 100 yards.
In Elliot’s first outing against the Giants last season, he had 51 yards, but that was his first NFL game. This is a tasty prop bet at 91.5 yards, given that Elliot had seven games over 100-yards as an NFL rookie. We expect Elliot to make a “Year two leap” and this is BBQ fried chicken as Shaquille O’Neal would say: OVER.
Dalvin Cook over/under 50.5 rushing yards
Over (-115); Under (-115)
Dalvin Cook starts his rookie season against the New Orleans Saints. The second-round (No. 41 overall) pick from Florida State will have a lot expected of him, and this is a real wild card betting on a rookie in his first NFL game. That is really all that can be said about this one, and simply because it is such a huge risk betting on a rookie in his debut game, we choose to avoid this with a big fat PUSH.
