Week 1 NFL Selected Bovada Quarterback Prop Betting: Late Sunday Games Edition

Cam Newton is listed as questionable following shoulder injury, but he will certainly play in Week 1.

Week 1 of the NFL is here, and quarterback prop bets are on! The late slate takes a look at the L.A. Rams, Seattle Seahawks, Green Bay Packers, Carolina Panthers, Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants, and takes a look at the betting odds on quarterback completions as well as total passing yards.

With several of the league’s top quarterbacks slated to play in late-afternoon games on the league’s opening day, there are some good value bets to be had with the quarterback prop betting.

Whether it be a cagey over/under or a hunch on total completions, there should be some heady bets to sink one’s teeth into in the following breakdown here at Maddux Sports.

ALL ODDS C/O BOVADA

Jared Goff (LA Rams) over/under 220.5 passing yards

Over (-115); Under (-115)

UNDER. We are going to interpret Jared Goff’s late season struggles in 2016 as a trend that bleeds into 2017. Goff finished the final five games with total passing yards of 161, 235, 135, 90 and 120 yards. He failed to complete more than 60 percent of his passes in four of those five games while also throwing two interceptions in three of the five final contests of 2017. Goff faces off against the Indianapolis Colts in the opener, and the second-year quarterback did not face Indy in his seven games as a rookie last year.

Granted, part of what drives NFL oddsmakers to project Goff over 220 passing yards is part of a sophomore leap that tends to happen, but Goff had over 220 yards in just one of his seven starts last year, and until we see it, it is much easier to be bullish and go with the under on this prop bet.

Russell Wilson (Seattle Seahawks) over/under 250.5 passing yards

Over (-115); Under (-115)

Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks will take on the Green Bay Packers in Week 1 play, and the over/under on Wilson is set at 250.5 total passing yards. That is a tough mark to bet on, given Wilson’s consistent play and the fact that 250-plus still constitutes a big week for the former Wisconsin quarterback.

Wilson finished the season with five games which saw passing yardage totals of 229, 350, 258, 224 and 225 yards (in the season finale loss to the Atlanta Falcons). Wilson did throw 60 percent or better in three of his final games, but Green Bay is one of the tougher draws with a strong secondary. Last year against the Packers, Wilson had 240 passing yards on 22 of 39 throwing, but he averaged just 6.15 yards per completion in that game. Given the similarity between what he finished with, and this week’s prop bet running right into it, this is a bet we feel confident steering clear from: PUSH.

Russell Wilson over/under 22.5 completions

Over (-115); Under (-115)

Like the prop bet on yardage, 22.5 simply hits the mark too close on the head. He had 22 completions against Green Bay last season, and he opened the season with three games of 22 completions or less. If a bet simply has to be wagered, the ‘UNDER’ is more attractive, but safer still is staying away from the completions prop bet with a solid PUSH.

Packers Steelers Super Bowl XLV PicksAaron Rodgers (GB Packers) over/under 285.5 passing yards

Over (-115); Under (-115)

OVER. Aaron Rodgers finished the 2016 season with five straight games over this 285 yard mark, including four of those five games being over 300 yards. Rodgers does face the league’s toughest secondary in the Seattle Seahawks, a team he was able to only muster 246 total passing yards against a season ago.

But Rodgers threw just 23 passes in that contest and he completed 18 of them (good for 78 percent accuracy). That was a down week in attempts, by design, but the wager here is that Rodgers simply sees closer to his usual workload throwing the football. He had 30 attempts or more in all but two games last season, and the other was a win over the Detroit Lions.

It is part of the structure of attack to press Seattle’s secondary less than usual, but 285 passing yards is a bit low for a guy who had over 300 in six games last season.

Aaron Rodgers over/under 24.5 completions

Over (-115); under (-115)

OVER. Oddly, while going the over on passing yardage, 24.5 completions may be a bit much against Seattle. Can Rodgers get 285 passing yards while completing less than 24 passes?

Absolutely. But it runs contrary to logic.

That would put his yards-per-pass over 12, and he never did that all of last season. Even so, we are going to go with the risky “OVER” simply because it accords with the bigger work load we predicted in the previous prop bet.

Cam Newton (Carolina Panthers) over/under 240.5 passing yards

Over (-115); Under (-115)

Cam Newton is listed as questionable for the game with a shoulder injury, but he is expected to play according to Brian Strickland of the Panthers’ official website. Newton is going to play, despite the questionable report on his shoulder. He had surgery in March to repair his rotator cuff, and he was ready at the start of Panthers’ camp.

There are likely no issues with his throwing whatsoever. Even so, he has to amass 240 passing yards to beat this prop bet, and last season against the San Francisco 49ers he had 353 passing yards on 24 of 40 passing. The Panthers may look to keep it on the ground more in Week 1, but to see Newton regress to something under 240 yards would be surprising even so. He started last season with two games under 240, but Newton is such a wild card anyway with the way he functions as a dual-threat quarterback. OVER.

Dak Prescott (Dallas Cowboys) Over/under 239.5 passing yards

Over (-115); Under (-115)

Dak Prescott turned in such an impressive rookie season, and he will open the 2017 campaign against the New York Giants with a 239.5 over/under on passing yardage. We like the OVER. Prescott struggled down the stretch of last season, but last year against the Giants it was just the fourth start of his NFL career as he threw just 17 of 37 for 165 yards.

Prescott developed more consistency throughout his rookie season, and he finished the year with eight straight games of 200-yards or more. That said, 239.5 is asking for a decent bit: He reached that mark or surpassed it in nine games last season. That was more than half. It is an attractive enough OVER, for that reason, and because Prescott should be more ready to deal with the uncertainties of early season football this year in his second season.

Eli Manning (NY Giants) over/under 245.5 passing yards

Over (-115); Under (-115)

Eli Manning finished the final five games of last season with three games of 201-yards or less. Against the Dallas Cowboys last year, Manning had just 207 yards on 19 of 28 passing and he threw an interception in the game. That weak end to 2016 and his struggles against Dallas make this a good game to roll with the UNDER on passing yards.

Also, Manning struggled in last season’s opener when he threw just 17 of 27 for 180 yards against the Washington Rredskins. Manning averaged 63 percent completions last season, but he was good for just 6.73 yards per pass. That will make surpassing this mark more difficult still, even if Eli did have four games with 300-plus yards last year. We are confident in the UNDER in this prop bet.

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