Orlando Magic at San Antonio Spurs
Time: 8:30 PM ET
TV: FSN Florida, FSN Southwest; League Pass
Spread: SAS -12.5
Betting odds c/o Bovada
The Orlando Magic are rightfully 12.5 point underdogs to the San Antonio as the team embarks on a West Coast road trip. The Spurs are a tough first opponent to a trip that has the potential to bury any Magic playoff hopes.
But the Magic can win this game with a very specific plan revolving around perimeter play and solid help side defense. Add in the ingredient of an edge on the boards, and this game could easily swing to Orlando’s advantage. Of course, it requires the perfect storm for a team like the Magic to knock of San Antonio, but one game is one game, in the regular season. San Antonio could come out flat footed and apathetic against a poor Magic team.
If the Magic are to steal this game, it will first require frequent penetration from the Magic’s wing players. Victor Oladipo and Tobias Harris have a propensity for scoring at the rim, be it off backdoor feeds or takes to the rim. Kyle O’Quinn and Nikola Vucevic are adept at finding cutters, and both would have far more assists if their teammates could finish at the rim.
While the Spurs do have a lot of depth, getting to the line could quickly mitigate the advantage. Getting Tim Duncan or Boris Diaw in foul trouble would bring on the likes of Matt Bonner and Tiago Splitter. With that combo, Dewayne Dedmon could even see minutes for the Magic. Just because the Magic have a bench with a low payroll doesn’t preclude the possibility of Evan Fournier or Ben Gordon catching fire. The Magic’s second unit has been improved in recent games, no longer frittering away leads gained by the Magic’s first unit.
Finding a way to slow Kawhi Leonard is the next key for Orlando. While Harris has been a good defender of 3-men, the duty will most likely go to rookie Aaron Gordon. Gordon has been one of the top defenders for the Magic in limited play due to injury, but he is going to need help side defense on Leonard, as most do. He scores efficiently (20.3 PER) and is very difficult to keep out of the paint i the half court.
Just having 2-guard Victor Oladipo stop Manu Ginobili is more likely and plausible, but Gordon has to put the clamps on Leonard more than Oladipo will need compensatory wing help. The Magic have had a lot of trouble preventing penetration and the Spurs could punish the Magic inside.
Lastly, the Magic are 28th in the league in rebounding, and to win this game it is going to require effort rebounding like the team showed in its loss last game to the OKC Thunder. The Magic had 14 offensive rebounds in that game, and Vucevic is getting really good at tapping it out to create the second possession. If the Magic can get to the hole, slow penetration and rebound hard, this is a potential victory. But that triad of events is representative of the perfect storm, which is why oddsmakers without hesitation make the Spurs double-digit favorites.
TRENDS:
ORL: 26-25 ATS this year; OVER 4-0 in last 4 following ATS win; 4-0 ATS vs teams with winning percentage above .600; 1-5 ATS in last 6 playing on 1 day rest.
SAS: 21-25-2 ATS this year; 0-3-1 ATS in last 4 at home; UNDER 5-0 in last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in previous game; UNDER 4-0 i last 4 following SU loss
H2H: OVER 6-1 in last 7 meetings in San Antonio; Magic 1-5 ATS in last 6 meetings; OVER 9-2 in last 11 meetings.
Injuries: Marco Belinelli, G, San Antonio
