A two-time Cy Young winner takes the hill as a heavy favorite on Wednesday night, but underdog bettors may find value in the .500 visitors.
Washington Nationals at San Francisco Giants
Washington’s 10-game road trip got off to a tumultuous start even before dropping the first game of the series, as the team experienced travel problems after completing a stretch of 20 games in 20 days. The Nationals currently sit at 23-23 (-900) for the season and have lost 12 of their last 14 games against the Giants. “They have a Cy Young and they have Matt Cain, Zito. They have a bunch of quality pitchers,” manager Jim Riggleman said. Success against right-handed starters has been a major turning point for the team this season, posting an 18-16 record (+770) so far this season. This is a dramatic different from the team’s 105-160 (-1,920) mark the last three seasons.
San Francisco ended a season-high five-game losing streak with a 4-2 win over the Washington Nationals in the series-opener on Tuesday night. The main problem plaguing the Giants in becoming a major force in the National League is the team’s inability to hit with runners in scoring position. The offense snapped a 0-for-25 streak with RISP last night, but still has an overall average of .230 in the category, ranking last among all NL teams. The linesmaker has placed the Giants as a heavy favorite in tonight’s matchup, marking the first time they’ve been favored by -225 of higher. San Francisco has compiled a 9-6 record when being placed as a home favorite of -250 to -330 since 1997 (-770), including just a 0-1 mark last year (-310).
Nationals SP Luis Atilano is set to oppose the reigning Cy Young Award winner on his home turf tonight. After starting the year with a 3-0 record, Atilano was hit hard by the Mets on Thursday, allowing six runs in just 4.1 innings of work. “Everything feels fine, but unfortunately, it was not a good night,” he said after the start. The 25-year-old right-hander is a perfect 2-0 with a 2.76 ERA in three road starts this season (+240). The Nationals have posted an even 3-3 record overall with him toeing the rubber in 2010 (+160).
Giants ace Tim Lincecum looks to bounce back from his worst start of the season, when he picked up a no-decision in a 8-7 road loss to division-rival Arizona. He lasted a season-low five innings in that contest, allowing five earned runs on five hits while also issuing five free passes. The right-hander is a dominating 3-0 with a 1.78 ERA in four starts this season at AT&T Park (+160), piling up 34 strikeouts in just over 30 innings of work. Lincecum is set to make his fourth career start against the Nationals, going 1-0 with a 1.77 ERA in his previous three outings. He has averaged a mind-blowing 13.3 strikeouts per nine innings versus NL East opponents this season (42 K, 22 IP).
Bettors must seek value in this type of situation, finding the Nationals with an even 2-3 mark this season when placed as a road underdog of +225 to +250 (+150). It’s worthwhile in looking in Washington’s direction in playing the run-line, considering that all three of Atilano’s road starts have been decided by a one-run margin. This fits well with the Giants playing in three straight one-run contests of their own with Lincecum on the hill.
