Pac-10 Championship Game
Washington Huskies vs Arizona Wildcats
Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA
Saturday, March 12, 2011, 6:00 pm Eastern, TV: CBS
Opening Line: Washington -3
Current Line: Washington -3
Opening Total: 151
Current Total: 154
Money Line: Washington -155 / Arizona +135
Though Arizona won the Pac-10 regular season title, Washington is the defending Pac-10 tournament Champion. Since the Pac-10 reinstated their conference tournament in 2002, Only Oregon has won it twice in a row. There has been a different champion every year since 2007. Arizona hopes that trend continues. The Wildcats are 27-6 overall and finished regular season 14-4 in conference. They are ranked #15 in the ESPN poll. The Wildcats have won 4 straight including beating Oregon St 78-69 in the quarterfinals and USC 67-62 in the semifinals. Washington is 22-10 and finished third in the Pac-10 with an 11-7 record. The Huskies alternated wins and losses in their last 6 games of the regular season. Washington beat Washington St 89-87 in the quarterfinals and beat Oregon 69-51 in the semifinals.
These two teams split the regular season series with each team winning on their home court. The Huskies won 85-68 in Seattle January 20. Arizona won in Tucson 87-86 February 19. Arizona leads the overall series 44-25, including 8 out the last 15. Washington leads 2-1 in neutral site/conference tournament games. Arizona is 4-2 ATS in the last 6 versus Washington. Five of the last six have gone over the total.
Washington forward Justin Holiday has mild concussion but played in both games of the tournament so far. Washington guard Abdul Gaddy tore his ACL in practice a few weeks ago and is gone for the season. He was averaging 8.5 points a game. Washington is led by guard Isaiah Thomas, a candidate to win Pac-10 player of the year. Thomas is averaging 16.5 points, 3.6 rebounds, 6 assists, and 1.3 steals a game. He leads the team in points, assists, and steals. Forward Matthew Bryan-Amaning is averaging 15.7 points, 8.3 rebounds, 1 steal and 1.6 blocks a game. He leads the team in rebounds and blocks. Justin Holiday averages 11.2 points, 5.3 rebounds, 2.2 assists, and 1.2 steals a game. Washington Guard Scott Suggs averages 7.3 points a game and leads the Pac-10 in 3-point shooting at 45.4%. Washington is outscoring opponents 84-70 on the year. The Huskies are shooting 47.1% from the field and 37.2% from 3-point range. Husky opponents are shooting 41.5% from the field. Washington is shooting 66.9% from the free throw line. The Huskies average 39.2 rebounds a game and have a rebounding margin of +4.4. Washington averages 17.3 assists and 12.4 turnovers a game. They force 15.2 turnovers a game on defense. The Huskies force 6.8 steals and 5.4 blocks a game.
Arizona has no significant injuries right now. Arizona sophomore forward Derrick Williams is also a candidate for Pac-10 player of the year. He leads the Wildcats in almost every statistical category except assists. He is averaging 19 points a game, 8.1 rebounds, 1.1 assists, and 0.9 steals and 0.7 blocks a game. Though he doesn’t shoot a lot of 3-pointers he is shooting 61.4% from behind the arc. Guard Lamont Jones averages 9.6 points, 1.5 rebounds, and 2.5 assists a game. Guard Kyle Fogg is averaging 8.4 points, 1.9 rebounds, 2.7 assists to lead the team and 0.9 steals a game to tie for the team lead. Forward Solomon Hill averages 7.7 points, 4.5 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 0.8 steals a game. Arizona is outscoring opponents 77-67 this season. The Wildcats are shooting 47.2% from the field and 40.2% from 3-point range. Arizona opponents are shooting 44.3% from the field. The ‘Cats make 75% of their free throws. Arizona averages 34.7 rebounds a game and has a rebounding margin of +4.3. Arizona averages 14.2 assists and 13 turnovers a game. They force 12.7 turnovers a game on defense. Arizona averages 2.8 blocks and 5.1 steals a game.
I don’t understand this line at all. Washington is one of the most inconsistent teams in the country. They live and die by the three point shot. Washington takes almost 24 three pointers a game and makes 37% of them. If they are making those shots they can play with anybody in the country, but if the shots aren’t falling Washington can be beat. Arizona opponents are only shooting 28.5% from 3-point range on the season. I think Arizona should be favored in this game, and you would be wise to take the points. You might even take Arizona on the money line if you are really feeling frisky.
Our college basketball handicappers are red hot as the countdown to Selection Sunday is underway. Don’t miss out on any more winners from not until they cut down the nets in Houston next month.
