Hawaii Warriors at Nevada Wolf Pack
Mackay Stadium – Reno, Nevada
Saturday, November 12, 2011, 10:15 pm Eastern, TV: ESPNU
Opening Line: Nevada -12
Current Line: Nevada -16
Opening Total: 54
Current Total: 61 1/2
Opening Money Line: Nevada -625 / Hawaii +500
Current Money Line: Nevada -675 / Hawaii +475
Nevada started off the season 1-3 with a brutal four game road trip but has since won 4 games in a row to take control of the WAC with a 3-0 conference record. The Wolf Pack host rival Hawaii who is 5-4 overall and 3-2 in the WAC. Every team in the WAC has at least 3 losses and these two teams along with Louisiana Tech are the only teams with winning records in the conference. Nevada is coached by Chris Ault and has losses at Oregon 69-20, Texas Tech 35-34, and Boise St 30-10. The Wolf Pack have home wins over UNLV 37-0, New Mexico 49-7, and Fresno St 45-38, along with road wins at San Jose St 17-14 and two weeks ago at New Mexico St 48-34. Hawaii is coached by Greg McMackin, and has home wins over Colorado 34-17, UC Davis 56-14, and New Mexico St 45-34, along with road wins at Louisiana Tech 44-26 and Idaho 16-14. The Warriors have losses at Washington 40-32, UNLV 40-20, San Jose St 28-27, and last week at home against Utah St 35-31. Hawaii leads the overall series 8-7 against Nevada, but Nevada leads 4-1 in Reno. The last 6 games have been decided by 10 points or less, including a 27-21 win for the Warriors last year in Honolulu. Both Nevada and Hawaii will move to the Mountain West Conference next year.
Last week, Hawaii was up 28-7 at halftime last week at home against Utah St. The Warriors looked they were well on their way to covering the 3 point spread on the college football line. However, the Aggies came back to win 35-31. Utah St scored with 14 seconds left in the game on a one yard touchdown run from running back Robert Turbin, his second of the day. The game featured 20 combined penalties and 3 turnovers (2 by Utah St.) Hawaii had 407 total yards including 180 rushing yards. Hawaii quarterback Bryant Moniz threw for 227 yards and 2 touchdowns and rushed for 75 yards and 2 touchdowns. Jeremiah Ostrowski had 8 catches for 76 yards and a touchdown catch. Justin Clapp had 5 catches, 52 yards, and a touchdown. Utah St had 433 total yards including 194 rushing yards.
Hawaii averages 428.9 total yards a game, including the nation’s tenth best passing attack with 317.9 yards a game. The Warriors rush for only 111 yards a game, and score 33.9 points. Hawaii has 19 turnovers and has allowed 31 sacks this season. The Warriors are 68/137 on third and fourth down conversions, and 37/46 scoring in the red zone with 30 touchdowns. Hawaii gives up 355.9 yards and 27.6 points a game. The Warriors are allowing 238.1 passing yards and 117.8 rushing yards. Hawaii has forced 20 turnovers and 28 sacks. Warrior opponents are 51/132 on third and fourth down conversions, and 24/29 scoring in the red zone with 19 touchdowns. Hawaii has 4 defensive/special teams touchdowns this season.
Moniz is 245/390 passing for 2,710 yards with 22 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, along with 80 carries, 299 yards, and 8 touchdowns. Running back Joey Iosefa has 81 carries 417 yards, and 4 touchdowns, along with 14 catches, 100 yards and a touchdown catch. Sterling Jackson has 44 carries, 224 yards, and 2 touchdowns, along with 3 catches for 36 yards and a touchdown. Back-up quarterback David Graves has only 6 carries but has 2 rushing touchdowns. Receiver Royce Pollard has 56 catches, 834 yards, and 7 touchdowns. Pollard is doubtful Saturday with a knee injury. Billy Ray Stutzman has 53 catches, 564 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Ostrowski has 38 catches, 356 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Clapp has 38 catches, 356 yards, and 4 touchdowns. He is out for the season with broken ribs. Allen Sampson, Darius Bright, and Trevor Davis also get significant targets. Hawaii kickers Tyler Hadden and Kenton Chun split the place kicking duties. Hadden is 16/19 on extra points and and 4/9 on field goals with a long of 47 yards. He is questionable against Nevada. Chun is 16/18 on extra points and 3/3 on field goals with a long of 38 yards. Hawaii has 8 players listed as questionable, doubtful, or out, including 3 defensive players and 2 offensive linemen.
Two weeks ago, Nevada traveled to Las Cruces to take on New Mexico St. The Wolf Pack were down 27-20 at halftime. Nevada came back to win 48-34, but didn’t cover the 15 point spread. The game featured 18 penalties (11 by New Mexico St), and 4 turnovers (3 by the Aggies.) Nevada had 683 total yards including 374 rushing yards. Nevada quarterback Cody Fajardo threw for 283 yards, and rushed for 60 yards and 4 touchdowns. Running back Lampford Mark had 8 carries for 185 yards, and a touchdown for the Wolf Pack. Stefphon Jefferson had 2 touchdown runs. Receiver Shane Anderson had 5 catches for 94 yards. New Mexico St had 514 total yards including 466 passing yards.
Nevada is averaging 524.2 yards and 32.5 points a game. The Wolf Pack is seventh in the country in rushing with 266.9 yards a game. Nevada passes for 257.4 yards a game. Nevada has 18 turnovers and has allowed 7 sacks. The Wolf Pack are 63/128 on third and fourth down conversions, and 30/38 scoring in the red zone with 22 touchdowns. Nevada is allowing 383.2 yards and 28.4 points a game. Nevada is allowing 165.4 rushing yards, and 217.9 passing yards. They have forced 15 turnovers and 16 sacks. Nevada opponents are 52/131 on third and fourth down conversions, and 20/28 scoring in the red zone with 18 touchdowns. Nevada has one defensive touchdown this season and one special teams touchdown.
Nevada quarterbacks Tyler Lantrip and Fajardo have split the snaps this season. Lantrip is 73/128 passing for 1021 yards for 5 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, along with 46 carries for 167 yards. Fajardo is 75/106 passing for 965 yards, 2 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, along 68 carries, 444 yards, and 10 touchdowns. Fajardo has started the last two games and has taken all the snaps except for 3 against New Mexico St. Running back Mike Ball has 135 carries for 703 yards and 3 touchdowns. He also has 10 catches for 47 yards and 2 touchdowns. Jefferson has 58 carries for 372 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 5 catches for 40 yards. Mark has 32 carries, 299 yards and 5 touchdowns. Receiver Rishard Matthews has 51 catches for 840 yards and 3 touchdowns. Anderson and Corbin Louks also get significant catches. Kicker Anthony Martinez is 8/9 on extra points and 3/5 on field goals with a long of 25 yards. He has missed the last 5 games with a hip injury and is doubtful against Hawaii. Allen Hardison has replaced him and is 19/19 on extra points and 7/10 on field goals with a long of 48 yards. Nevada has 4 players out indefinitely or for the season including 2 defensive players.
Nevada is 4-4 against the spread this season and the total is also 4-4. Hawaii is 3-6 ATS and the total is 5-4 in those games. Hawaii has covered the last 2 against Nevada and both games went under the total. The Warriors 6-2 ATS after a straight up loss, 7-19 on the road against teams with winning home records, 1-4 after failing to cover and on the road, 0-4 in conference, overall and on turf. The Wolf Pack are 7-1 ATS in November, 4-1 on turf, 5-2 after a bye week, 24-10 as a home favorite, and 9-4 at home against teams with winning road records.
This line started off with Nevada a 12 point favorite and moved to -16. The total also moved a lot from 54 to 61 1/2. The last time Hawaii traveled to Nevada was in September and they were beaten soundly by a terrible UNLV team 40-20. That is the problem with Hawaii. You don’t know which team will show up for the Warriors. Hawaii has losses to teams they should have beaten like UNLV, Utah St and San Jose St, but Hawaii gave Louisiana Tech their only conference loss of the season despite traveling over 6,000 miles to play the game. I think the Warriors are too inconsistent to win in Reno against a tough Nevada team. however, I do think 16 points is too many, and Hawaii should be able to stay within the number.The weather could be a factor as game time temps are supposed to be in the 20’s but no snow is expected.
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