New Mexico St Aggies at Nevada Wolf Pack
Lawlor Events Center – Reno, Nevada
Thursday, March 1, 2012, 11:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN2
Opening Line: Nevada -3 1/2
Current Line: Nevada -3
Opening Total: 143
Current Total: 143
Opening Money Line: Nevada -165 / NMSU +145
Current Money Line: Nevada -155 / NMSU +135
The 23-5 Nevada Wolf Pack are 11-1 in the WAC. They have already clinched at least a tie for the conference title, and can clinch it outright with a home win tonight against 22-8 New Mexico St. The Aggies are 9-3 in conference, and can tie for the conference title if they win their remaining two games and Nevada loses their last two.
Nevada started off the season 3-3 but has since gone 20-2, including a 16 game winning streak. Nevada has gone 3-1 in their last 4 games including a 79-76 win at Fresno St in triple overtime Saturday. New Mexico St has won 8 of their last 9 games including 5 in a row. The Aggies beat San Jose St 79-68 in Las Cruces Saturday night.
New Mexico St leads the series 19-16 against Nevada. Nevada won in Las Cruces 68-60 in late January to give the Aggies their only home loss of the season. This rivalry could end as Nevada leaves the WAC next season for the Mountain West.
New Mexico St is coached by Marvin Menzies. The Aggies have losses to Southern Miss twice, Arizona, UTEP, New Mexico, Hawaii, and Idaho. NMSU has wins over New Mexico, UTEP, Central Michigan, San Francisco, Louisiana Tech twice, Utah St twice, Idaho, San Jose St twice, Fresno St, Drake, and Hawaii.
Nevada is coached by David Carter. The Wolf Pack have losses to Missouri St, UNLV, BYU, Idaho, and Iona. Nevada has wins over Pacific, Bradley, Washington, Arizona St, Montana, UC-Riverside, Idaho, Utah St twice, San Jose St twice, Fresno St twice, Louisiana Tech, and Hawaii twice.
New Mexico St is outscoring opponents 79-68. The Aggies are #13 in scoring nationally. NMSU shoots 47.7% from the field and 32.5% from 3 point range. The Aggies are #24 in the country in field goal percentage. New Mexico St makes 66.3% of their free throws. The Aggies average 39.9 rebounds a game with a rebounding margin of +81.1. NMSU is 11th in rebounding. The Aggies average 13.8 assists, 14.9 turnovers, 6.9 steals, and 4.1 blocks a game. NMSU opponents are shooting 42.6% from the field and 32.5% from 3 point range. The Aggies force 14.9 turnovers a game.
New Mexico St forward Wendell McKines averages 18.4 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 1.4 assists a game. He leads the Aggies in scoring and rebounding and is shooting 32.4% from 3 point range. Christian Kabongo averages 14.6 points, 3.4 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 1.3 steals a game. Hernst Laroche averages 12.2 points, 2.8 rebounds, 3.7 assists to lead the team, and 1.7 steals to tie for the team lead. He is shooting 43.2% from 3 point range. Hamidu Rahman averages 10.8 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 1 block a game to lead the team. Daniel Mullings, Bandja Sy, and Tyrone Watson also get significant minutes in the rotation. Mullings averages 1.7 steals a game. Guard Terrel de Rouen is out for the season with a knee injury.
Nevada is outscoring opponents 71-65 this season. The Wolf Pack are shooting 45.2% from the field and 36.6% from 3 point range. Nevada makes 64.3% of their free throws. The Wolf Pack averages 36.7 rebounds a game with a rebounding margin of +3.2. Nevada averages 12.8 assists, 13.6 turnovers, 6 steals and 4.7 blocks a game. Wolf Pack opponents are shooting 41.1% from the field and 32.8% from 3 point range. Nevada forces 13.1 turnovers a game.
Nevada guard Deonte Burton averages 15.3 points, 2.3 rebounds, 4.2 assists, and 1.1 steals a game. He leads the Wolf Pack in scoring, assists, and steals. He makes 38.6% of his three point attempts. Malik Story averages 14.3 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 2.3 assists a game. He makes 42.7% of his three pointers. Olek Czyz averages 13.7 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 1 assist a game. Dario Hunt averages 10.3 points, 9.9 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1 steal, and 2.2 blocks a game he leads the team in rebounding and blocks.
Nevada is 16-7 ATS and the total is 13-10 this season. New Mexico St is 12-11 ATS and the total is 13-10 this season. The favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 games in this series. The Aggies are 5-2 ATS in Thursday games, 2-5 as a road underdog, 3-9 after 3 or more consecutive home games, 2-6 in WAC games, 1-5 after failing to cover, and 1-7 as an underdog of 6.5 points or less, including 1-6 on the road. The Wolf Pack are 6-1 ATS in Thursday games, 5-1 as a favorite of 6.5 points or less, 10-3 after a cover, 14-5 overall, 7-3 against teams with winning records, 1-4 at home against teams with winning road records, and after a straight up win.
This line seems a little low with Nevada only a 3 point favorite at home. New Mexico St is going on the road after a 4 game home stand. I like Nevada to win and cover to clinch the outright WAC title.
