Vanderbilt Commodores at Tennessee Volunteers
Neyland Stadium – Knoxville, Tennessee
Saturday, November 19, 2011, 7:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPNU
Opening Line: Tennessee -1
Current Line: Vanderbilt -1 1/2
Opening Total: 44 1/2
Current Total: 45
Opening Money Line: Tennessee -115 / Vanderbilt -105
Current Money Line: Vanderbilt -115 / Tennessee -105
For only the second time since 1985, Vanderbilt is favored over their in-state rivals, the Tennessee Volunteers, on the college football betting line. Tennessee has won 5 in a row against their rivals and Vanderbilt has only beaten Tennessee once since 1982. Tennessee leads the overall series 72-28-5. That was in 2005 when Jay Cutler was the quarterback for the Commodores. The 5-5 Vanderbilt Commodores can become bowl eligible for only the second time in 29 years with a win at Tennessee who is 4-6. The Commodores are coached by James Franklin and have home wins over Elon 45-14, UConn 24-21, Ole Miss 30-7, Army 44-21, and last week at Kentucky 38-8. Vanderbilt has road losses at South Carolina 21-3, Alabama 34-0, and Florida 26-21, and home losses to Georgia 33-28, and Arkansas 31-28. Tennessee is coached by Derek Dooley, and has home wins over Montana 42-16, Cincinnati 45-23, Buffalo 41-10, and Middle Tennessee St 24-0. Tennessee started off season 3-1 but has since gone 1-5, including 0-6 in the SEC. Tennessee has road losses to Florida 33-23, Alabama 37-6, and at Arkansas 49-7, along with home losses to Georgia 20-12, LSU 38-7, and South Carolina 14-3.
Last week, Vanderbilt was a rare double digit favorite at home last week against Kentucky. Vanderbilt was up 31-0 in the third before Kentucky scored their lone touchdown. Vanderbilt ended up winning 38-8 to easily cover the 13 point spread. Each team had a turnover but Kentucky had 10 penalties. Vanderbilt had 410 yards including 203 rushing yards. Commodore quarterback Jordan Rodgers threw for 207 yards with 2 touchdowns and an interception, and rushed for 29 yards. Running back Zac Stacy had 28 carries, 135 yards and 3 touchdowns. Jordan Matthews had 6 catches, 131 yards and a touchdown. Chris Boyd also caught a touchdown pass for Vanderbilt. Kentucky had 211 total yards including 32 rushing yards and 9 first downs. Vanderbilt had 4 sacks in the game.
Vanderbilt averages 335 total yards including 172.5 passing yards and 162.5 rushing yards. The Commodores average 26.1 points a game. Vanderbilt has 21 turnovers and has allowed 24 sacks this season. The Commodores are 57/152 on third and fourth down conversions, and 24/32 scoring in the red zone with 19 touchdowns. Vanderbilt allows 327.6 yards and 21.6 points a game. The Commodores give up 204.7 passing yards and 122.9 rushing yards a game. Vandy has forced 24 turnovers and 22 sacks this season. Vanderbilt opponents are 65/169 on third and fourth down conversions, and 17/21 scoring in the red zone with 12 touchdowns. Vanderbilt has 4 defensive/special teams touchdowns this season, but has give up 4 as well.
Vanderbilt quarterback Larry Smith was benched a few games ago in favor of Rodgers. Smith was 59/103 passing for 481 yards, 3 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, along with 2 rushing touchdowns. Rodgers is 80/155 passing for 1,166 yards, with 7 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, along with 80 carries, 305 yards, and 4 touchdown runs. Rodgers is the younger brother of Packers’ quarterback Aaron. Stacy has 138 carries, 891 yards, and 9 touchdowns, along with 16 catches for 78 yards. He also has a touchdown pass and 2 interceptions in 5 attempts. Jerron Seymour has 71 carries, 223 yards, and 4 touchdowns, and 9 catches for 108 yards. Matthews has 29 catches, 569 yards, and 4 touchdown receptions. Boyd has 20 catches, 320 yards, and 6 touchdowns. Jonathan Krause and Wesley Tate also get significant targets. Kicker Casey Spear is 24/25 on extra points and 4/7 on field goals with a long of 37 yards. He has missed the last two games but isn’t listed on the injury report. Ryan Fowler has replaced him and is 10/10 on extra points and 1/2 on field goals with a 32 yard kick. Vanderbilt has 6 players listed as questionable or out including 3 defensive players.
Tennessee was a 15 point underdog at Arkansas last week. The Volunteers were never in the game as the Razorbacks jumped out to a 21-0 lead early and cruised to a 49-7 win. Tennessee had 376 total yards, including 238 passing yards and 16 first downs. Volunteer quarterback Justin Worley threw for 208 yards and an interception. Receiver Da’Rick Rogers had 5 catches for 106 yards. Running back Rajion Neal had the only touchdown for Tennessee. Arkansas had 499 yards including 254 rushing yards. Tennessee had one turnover and Arkansas had 2.
Tennessee is averaging 342.7 yards a game and 21 points a game. The Volunteers are averaging 250.7 passing yards and 92 rushing yards a game. They have allowed 15 sacks and have 13 turnovers. Tennessee has 23 fumbles but has recovered 18 of them. They are 73/169 on third and fourth down conversions this season, and 28/33 scoring in the red zone with 21 touchdowns. The Volunteers are allowing 358.6 total yards and 24 points a game this season. Tennessee is allowing 190.3 passing yards and 168.3 rushing yards a game. Tennessee has forced 14 turnovers and 14 sacks this season. Volunteer opponents are 60/145 on third and fourth down conversions and 28/34 scoring in the red zone with 19 touchdowns. Tennessee has one defensive touchdown this season.
Quarterback Tyler Bray is 116/176 passing for 1,579 yards with 14 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, along with a rushing touchdown. He broke his thumb in the Georgia game and has missed the last 5 games. He is listed as questionable this week, but Coach Dooley says he will be a game time decision. Justin Worley and Matt Sims have split the snaps since Bray went out with the injury. Worley is 48/87 passing for 604 yards, with a touchdown and 3 interceptions. Simms is 27/62 passing with 319 yards and 3 interceptions, with a rushing touchdown. Running back Tauren Poole has 159 carries for 554 yards, and 4 touchdowns, along with 15 catches for 131 yards. Marlin Lane has 68 carries for 255 yards and 2 touchdowns, and he also has 16 catches for 159 yards and 2 touchdowns. Neal has 19 carries, 101 yards, and 2 touchdowns, plus 9 carries for 144 yards. Rogers has 55 catches, 886 yards and 7 touchdowns. Mychal Rivera has 26 catches, 315 yards, and a touchdown. DeAnthony Arnett and Zach Rogers also get significant catches. Kicker Michael Palardy is 21/22 on extra points and 9/13 on field goals with a long of 52 yards. Four Tennessee defensive players are out for the season.
Tennessee is 3-5-2 against the spread and the total is 4-5-1 in those games. Vanderbilt is 8-2 ATS and the total is 6-4 this season. The last five games in this series have gone under the total, and the road team has covered the last 6 games. The Commodores are 4-0 ATS in conference games, as a favorite, and after a cover, 5-0overall and on grass, 6-13 in November, 2-5 as a favorite of 3 points or less, 3-8 as a road favorite, 4-11 after a straight up win of 20 points or more, 1-6 in road games, and after allowing 20 points or less. The Volunteers are 6-1 ATS in November, 6-1-1 as an underdog of 3 points or less, 1-3-1 after allowing 40 points or more, 2-7 after scoring less than 20 points, 1-4 on grass, 1-5 overall, 0-5-1 in conference games, 0-6 as a home underdog, and 0-5-1 as an underdog.
I think Vanderbilt is a slightly better team than Tennessee, but winning in Neyland Stadium with over 100,000 orange clad fans singing Rocky Top is a difficult task. Vanderbilt has only done it 10 times in history and only twice since 1961. The game is a coin flip but I like the under in this game.
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