Vanderbilt Commodores at Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Groves Stadium – Winston-Salem, North Carolina
Saturday, November 26, 2011, 3:30 pm Eastern, TV: ESPNU
Opening Line: Vanderbilt -1
Current Line: Vanderbilt -1 1/2
Opening Total: 49
Current Total: 48 1/2
Opening Money Line: Vanderbilt -125 / Wake Forest +105
Current Money Line: Vanderbilt -125 / Wake Forest +105
On this Thanksgiving weekend, you might look at this game and think the two teams are playing in one of the many college basketball tournaments this weekend. However, they are playing football, and this game actually means something. Not much was expected at the beginning the season for either 5-6 Vanderbilt or 6-5 Wake Forest. However, Vanderbilt, under coach James Franklin, can become bowl eligible for only the second time in 29 years. Wake Forest, under coach Jim Grobe, is trying to clinch a winning season. Until a narrow loss to Clemson two weeks ago, Wake had a chance to win the ACC Atlantic Division title. Vanderbilt leads the series 7-6 overall, including 4-2 at Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons have won 3 straight in the series including 34-13 last year in Nashville.
Last week, Vanderbilt was a 1.5 point favorite at arch-rival Tennessee on the college football betting line. Tennessee took a 14-7 lead at halftime. Vanderbilt tied it up on a 100 yard interception return late in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, Vanderbilt took a 21-14 lead, but Tennessee tied it up with just over 6 minutes to go. Vanderbilt drove into Tennessee territory and was in long field goal range when Commodore quarterback Jordan Rodgers threw an interception with just seconds remaining. In overtime, Vanderbilt was on offense first and were at the Tennessee 10 when Rodgers threw his third interception of the day. The Volunteers ran it all the way back to win 27-21. The Commodores had 7 penalties and 4 turnovers, while Tennessee had 5 penalties and 2 turnovers. Vanderbilt had 283 total yards, including 193 passing yards from Rodgers who threw a touchdown pass, along with the 3 picks. Running back Zac Stacy had 17 carries for 61 yards and a touchdown, and two catches for 17 yards. Receiver Jordan Matthews had 6 catches for 74 yards. Chris Boyd had 6 catches for 66 yards and a touchdown. Tennessee had 290 total yards including 189 passing yards. The Volunteers got an emotional boost from the return of starting quarterback Tyler Bray, who missed several games with a broken thumb. He was listed as a game time decision before the Vanderbilt game.
Vanderbilt averages 330.3 total yards including 174.4 passing yards and 155.9 rushing yards. The Commodores average 25.6 points a game. Vanderbilt has 25 turnovers and has allowed 26 sacks this season. The Commodores are 65/170 on third and fourth down conversions, and 26/36 scoring in the red zone with 21 touchdowns. Vanderbilt allows 324.2 yards and 22.1 points a game. The Commodores give up 203.3 passing yards and 120.9 rushing yards a game. Vandy has forced 26 turnovers and 23 sacks this season. Vanderbilt opponents are 70/182 on third and fourth down conversions, and 20/25 scoring in the red zone with 15 touchdowns. Vanderbilt has 5 defensive/special teams touchdowns this season, but has give up 5 as well.
Vanderbilt quarterback Larry Smith was benched a few games ago in favor of Rodgers. Smith was 59/103 passing for 481 yards, 3 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, along with 2 rushing touchdowns. Rodgers is 97/187 passing (51.9% completions) for 1,359 yards, with 8 touchdowns and 9 interceptions, along with 92 carries, 297 yards, and 4 touchdown runs. Rodgers is the younger brother of Packers’ quarterback Aaron. Stacy has 155 carries, 952 yards, and 10 touchdowns, along with 18 catches for 95 yards. He also has a touchdown pass and 2 interceptions in 5 attempts. Jerron Seymour has 76 carries, 246 yards, and 4 touchdowns, and 9 catches for 108 yards. Matthews has 35 catches, 643 yards, and 4 touchdown receptions. Boyd has 26 catches, 386 yards, and 7 touchdowns. Jonathan Krause and Wesley Tate also get significant targets. Kicker Casey Spear is 26/27 on extra points and 4/7 on field goals with a long of 37 yards. Ryan Fowler also takes some kicks and is 11/11 on extra points and 1/4 on field goals with a 32 yard kick. Vanderbilt has 7 players listed as questionable or out including 3 defensive players.
Last week Wake Forest was a 10 point favorite at home against Maryland. The teams were tied at 7 at halftime. Wake Forest blew the game open the second half outscoring the Terrapins 24-3. Wake Forest won 31-10 to become bowl eligible. The Demon Deacons had 514 total yards including 320 passing yards from quarterback Tanner Price who threw 3 touchdown passes. Running back Brandon Pendergrass had 26 carries, 125 yards and a touchdown. Chris Givens had 8 catches, 191 yards and a touchdown reception. Cameron Ford and Terence Davis also caught touchdown passes. Maryland had 415 total yards including 229 rushing yards. Maryland had the only turnover in the game.
Wake Forest is averaging 378.6 total yards a game including 262.2 passing yards and 116.5 rushing yards. The Deacons are scoring 28.5 points a game. Wake has 11 turnovers and has allowed 28 sacks this season. The Demon Deacons are 69/173 on third and fourth down conversions, and 40/48 scoring in the red zone but they have only 25 touchdowns. Wake Forest is allowing 391.6 yards a game including 150.7 rushing yards and 240.9 passing yards. The Deacons are allowing 26.5 points a game. Wake Forest has forced 17 turnovers and 10 sacks this season. Wake opponents are 77/187 on third and fourth down conversions and 35/44 scoring in the red zone with 27 touchdowns. Wake has one special teams touchdown on a punt return.
Price is 213/342 passing for 2,646 yards, 19 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, along with a rushing touchdown. Pendergrass has 152 carries for 676 yards, and 8 touchdowns along with 17 catches for 97 yards and a touchdown reception. Running back Josh Harris has 101 carries, 432 yards, and 3 touchdowns with 5 catches for 22 yards. Harris is doubtful with a hamstring injury, and has missed the last 2 games. Givens has 70 catches for 1,207 yards, and 9 touchdowns, along with 11 carries for 62 yards. Michael Campanaro has 57 catches for 660 yards and 2 touchdowns and has 2 touchdown passes and an interception this season. He also has a punt return for a touchdown. Danny Dembry has 33 catches for 410 yards and a touchdown, along with a rushing touchdown. Davis has 17 catches, 240 yards, and 4 scores. Ford has only 12 catches but has 3 touchdowns. Kicker Jimmy Newman is 36/38 on extra points and 16/20 on field goals with a long of 46 yards. Six Deacon players are listed as questionable or doubtful against Vanderbilt including 2 defensive linemen and 2 offensive linemen.
Wake Forest is 7-4 against the spread this season and the total is 6-5. Vanderbilt is 8-3 ATS and the total is 7-4 this year. Wake Forest is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 against Vanderbilt. The Commodores are 4-0 ATS after a straight up loss, 5-1 overall, 4-1 as a favorite, 3-7 against teams with winning records, 2-5 in November, 3-9 as a road favorite, 1-4 as a favorite of 3 points or less, 1-5 against ACC teams, 1-7 after failing to cover, in road games against teams with winning home records, and on the road. The Demon Deacons are 4-0 ATS against teams with losing records, and in November, 6-1 on turf, 5-1 at home, and after a cover, 4-1 against SEC teams, and after allowing 20 points or less, 16-5 as an underdog of 3 points or less, including 6-2 at home, 5-2 as an underdog, 14-6 as a home dog, 7-3 overall, and 5-11-1 after a straight up win by 20 points or more.
This line is more of a reflection of the SEC being a stronger conference than the ACC. Wake Forest is 5-1 ATS at home this year and Vanderbilt is 1-3 on the road this season. I think Wake wins a close, low scoring game at home.
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