Tip off: 10:35 PM EST
Spread: GSW -5
Total: 197
M/L: GSW -210, UTA +180
Odds From Bookmaker *
The Jazz have a lot of talent and could be far better than the 12-8 they are, but they will need to continue to get better and find a solution at point guard. Devin Harris is seeing only 26 minutes per game now, and the Jazz desperately want to upgrade so that they can get the most out of inside tandem Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap. Jefferson averages 18.5 per game and Millsap puts up 17. The only other Jazz player in doubel figures is C.J. Miles with 10.6 points per game.
Last game, a two point loss to the Clipppers, Jefferson put up 27 points on 12 of 20 shooting, while playing nearly 36 minutes. A big 6’10” 295 pound frame makes Jefferson an imposing specimen and he is still only 26 years old, so he is just entering his prime. His knee surgery may slightly off-set that prime, maybe by a year, but Jefferson still has a lot left in the tank and his good footwork and soft touch will keep him effective.
The Warriors are still the most exciting bad team in basketball. Sitting at 7-12, the Warriors only put up 96 a game this year. I say “only” because we know what this team is capable of offensively. They have almost 6 players averaging double figures (Brandon Rush, 9.8). Monta Ellis continues to beast offensively and is difficult for most perimeter players to stop because of his versatility both shooting, passing, and getting to the hole — triple threat. His 20.8 points per game pace the team, while David Lee, a former Knick, chips in 18.6 per game. Stephen Curry has played only 10 games and continues to battle ankle injuries, but is trying to play through it.
Curry has played the last five Warriors games, but is shooting just 42% from the floor, which is well below his 47% career average. His three point percentage is also about 4% below his career average, but as he plays more I expect both percentages to rise.
Jazz Betting Trends:
Utah is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games and the total has gone OVER in 5 of their last 7 games. The Jazz are 11-5 SU in their last 16 games and they are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 on the road.
Warriors Betting Trends:
Golden State is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games and the total has gone OVER in 8 of their last 11. The Warriors are 5-11 SU in their last 16 games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 at home.
Key Matchup:
David Lee / Andris Biedrins vs. Paul Millsap / Al Jefferson
Though Ellis is the key players on the Warriors, the game will be decided on the interior tonight, as the best two Jazz players are bigs, and the Warriors second best scorer (Lee) is, as well. Lee is a lot quicker than either Millsap or Jefferson and will look to take advantage by beating them down the floor in transition. Biedrins at one time had a lot of promise, but never really panned out. His offensive skill set is limited to put backs, which he usually makes, but he attempts only 2.3 shots per game. Expect Jefferson to go hard at Biedrins, and I don’t imagine Biedrins will be able to body up well enough to stop him at all. Though the Warriors are favored by 5 by NBA oddsmakers, I prefer a money line bet on the underdog Jazz for the pure interior dominance.
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