Detroit Pistons AT Chicago Bulls
January 10th, 2011 at 8:05 PM EST
Opening Line:  Chicago -10.5
Current Line:  Chicago -10.0
Opening Total:  189.5
Current Total: 188
Opening Moneyline: Chicago -525 / Detroit +425
Current Moneyline:  Chicago -700 / Detroit +450

Chicago comes into this one as big favorites.  They have won 7 of their last 10 games and are currently sitting at the 4 seed in the Eastern Conference.  Things aren’t going quite as well for Detroit.  While they still have hold over players from their glory days (Rip Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, and Ben Wallace), they have faded into obscurity and their payroll isn’t friendly either after Dumars boneheadly threw the bank at mediocre free agents Charlie Villanueva and Ben Gordon.  The Pistons no longer resemble the defensive minded team they once were and now give up over 100 points a game, while scoring only 95.5 themselves, for a -4.9 point differential on the season.  They won’t have it any easier scoring points against the Bulls, a great defensive team that holds opponents to 93.9 points per game.

Despite all this misery in Detroit, second year draftee Austin Daye holds out optimism, however misguided it may be, “(The future) really looks good to me, but hopefully it looks good to (team president Joe Dumars).  Joe’s the one who drafted us … and I bet he’s pleased seeing us out there on the floor at the end of games, making plays.”

A lot of optimism for sure after one win, one that ended a three game skid.

Some betting trends:

The total has gone OVER In 7 of Detroit’s last 10 games and they are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games.  They are 3-6 ATS in their last 9 road games and the total has gone UNDER in 13 of their last 18 on the road.  The total has also gone OVER in 4 of their last 6 on the road.  They are 1-12 SU in their last 13 road games and 1-12-1 ATS in their last 14 against the Bulls.  Detroit is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games against the Bulls and 0-5 SU in their last 5 road games against the Bulls.  They are also 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games at the United Center.

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago’s last 5 games and they are 15-4 SU in their last 19 games.  They are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games and the total has gone UNDER in 11 of their last 16 at home.  They are 5-0 SU in their last 5 home games and 5-0 SU in their last 5 against the Pistons.  They are 12-1-1 ATS in their last 14 against Detroit and 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against the Pistons.

Key Matchups:

Charlie Villanueva vs. Carlos Boozer

Boozer should absolutely murder Villanueva in this matchup.  Though Villanueva did have a double double last game against the Bulls (12 pts, 10 rebs), Boozer had an even bigger game with 31 points and 11 rebounds.  Villanueva simply has no answer defensively against the premier power forwards in the game, and his offensive output isn’t significant enough to make up the difference.

Rodney Stuckey vs. Derrick Rose

Stuckey, like Villanueva, had a good game last time against the Bulls — at least on offense.  But much like CV31, he gave up an even better game to his man on defense, as Rose went for 23 pts and 12 asts as Chicago snuck by the Pistons in OT.  Stuckey has the size and strength to cover Rose, but Rose finds other ways to beat his man, and often it is getting into the paint to draw fouls and earn trips to the line.  In recent games, he has been doing it more and more.  In the last two games he has shot 29 free throws.  If he keeps that up against the Pistons tonight, the game won’t be close.