The Lobos from New Mexico have had a forgettable start to the season. Their best game has been a 35 point loss to Texas Tech at home. Before and after that game, the Lobos lost by 72 at Oregon and 42 to Utah.
New Mexico will try to get on track against the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels this Saturday night. The Rebels opened as only 6 point favorites on the ncaa football odds, but sharps and squares alike have bet up the Rebs, and the line steamed up 10 ½ points, which is where it currently sits. The public is playing UNLV at 95%.
It’s hard to get a read on just how bad New Mexico really is because they’ve had such a tough schedule. Playing at Oregon, and then home against Texas Tech and Utah, not many teams – if any – have had a more brutal stretch of opponents. That being said, New Mexico has lost by a combine score of 180-31.
Not much has gone right for New Mexico. The quarterback situation has been unsettled in head coach Mike Locksley’s up-tempo offensive system, which doesn’t help. Sophomore B.R. Holbrook’s bum knee will keep him on the sidelines. That leaves true freshman Terean Austin to man the offense. Last week against Utah, Austin struggled but still showed signs of athleticism that could help the Lobos later in the season once he has a better grasp of the offense. Austin is a dual threat qb, which is particularly useful in Locksley’s system. Against Utah, two quarterbacks combined for 16 of New Mexico’s 37 rushing attempts. However, this will be a true freshman’s first road start on a bad football team. That sounds like more trouble for the Lobos.
Additionally, the offense lacks any rhythm. Against Utah they rushed 37 times for 69 yards, a meager 1.9 yards per carry. Through the air, New Mexico was 18-35 for 161 yards, only 4.6 yards per pass. Granted, Utah has a decent defense. But New Mexico was playing at home and couldn’t establish any offensive continuity throughout the entire game. What is there to build on?
Not the defense, that’s for sure. They’re giving up 60 points per contest. If there was one bright spot against Utah it was the 27 yard fumble recovery for a touchdown near the start of the second half. Otherwise, the Utes abused the Lobos’ defense.
On the flip side, UNLV hasn’t been that good, either. They’ve lost to Wisconsin, at Utah, and at Idaho – another difficult schedule. But against Wisconsin they battled. The Rebels were down 17-14 at half and narrowly covered the spread as 20 ½ point underdogs, losing 41-21. Against Utah they lost 38-10, but were outgained by only 19 yards, 338-319. Further, the Rebs owned time of possession and were 9-20 on 3rd down. The recent trip to Moscow, Idaho was one to forget. UNLV was never in the game, and lost 30-7.
If playing a common opponent means anything, notice the way UNLV played at Utah versus the way New Mexico played the Utes at home. UNLV wasn’t that bad, while New Mexico was awful. In this match-up, UNLV also has the advantage of playing at home.
Last week we recommended fading New Mexico in an under-the-radar game against Utah, and the Lobos were predictably terrible. This week another play against New Mexico seems like a solid bet. UNLV should have little trouble earning their first victory of the season. It would be nice to get the game at less than 10 points, but UNLV should win by at least 3 touchdowns.
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