Oklahoma St Cowboys at #4 Baylor Bears
Ferrell Center – Waco, Texas
Saturday, January 14, 2012, 3:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN2
Opening Line: Baylor -14 1/2
Current Line: Baylor -13 1/2
Current Total: 129 1/2
Opening Total: 129
Opening Money Line: Baylor -1400 / Oklahoma St +1000
Current Money Line: Baylor -1300 / Oklahoma St +900
The 16-0 Baylor Bears are #4 in the country and one of three undefeated teams left along with Syracuse and Murray St. The Bears are 3-0 in the Big 12 and tied with Kansas for the early conference lead. Baylor has conference wins at home against Texas A&M and on the road at Texas Tech and Tuesday night at #18 Kansas St 75-73. Now the Bears host 9-7 Oklahoma St Saturday afternoon. OSU is 2-1 in conference with wins over Texas Tech and Oklahoma 72-65 Monday night. The Cowboys have a conference loss at Texas. OSU has lost 11 straight Big 12 road games dating back to last season. Oklahoma St leads the series against Baylor 51-16, including 17-12 in Waco. The home team has won 11 straight games in this series. Each team won on their own home court by double digits last year in the series.
Oklahoma St is coached by Travis Ford. Only 7-8 Texas Tech has more overall losses than the 9-7 Cowboys in the Big 12. OSU’s record might not seem that impressive but the Cowboys had a very difficult non-conference schedule that will prepare them for the rugged Big 12. The Cowboys are also very young with 6 freshmen on the 11 man roster. OSU has losses to Stanford and Virginia Tech in the pre-season NIT in New York, along with neutral site losses to Pitt, New Mexico and Alabama. The Cowboys also lost to Virginia Tech in Stillwater New Year’s Eve. The two Virginia Tech games were decided by a total of 8 points. OSU has wins over Tulsa, Missouri St, and SMU.
Baylor is coached by Scott Drew. The Bears have wins over San Diego St, Northwestern, BYU, St. Mary’s (CA) and West Virginia in a tournament in Las Vegas, and Mississippi St. The Baylor athletic program is having a banner year with the football team winning 11 games for the first time in school history led by Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Robert Griffin III, and the women’s basketball is also undefeated and ranked #1 in the country.
Oklahoma St is outscoring opponents 66-63 this season. The Cowboys shoot 40.8% from the field including 32.7% from 3 point range. OSU makes 70.6% of their free throws. The Pokes average 36.4 rebounds a game and have a rebounding margin of -2.4. OSU averages 10.3 assists, 12.8 turnovers, 5 blocks and 6.3 steals a game. Cowboy opponents are shooting 38% from the field and 28.7% from 3 point range. The Cowboys are in the top 25 nationally in both categories. OSU forces 13.6 turnovers a game on defense.
OSU guard Keiton Page averages 14.3 points, 1.5 rebounds, 1.7 assists to tie for the team lead, and 1.3 steals a game. Page shoots 36.7% from 3 point range. Le’Bryan Nash averages 12.9 points and 5.1 rebounds a game. Guard Jean-Paul Olukemi is out for the season with a knee injury. He was the Cowboys’ third leading scorer averaging 9.4 points and 4.8 rebounds a game. Markel Brown averages 7.9 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 1.4 steals a game to lead the team. Cezar Guerrero Brian Williams, and Reger Dowell all contribute to the scoring as well. Dowell is tied for the team lead in assists with Page. Center Philip Jurick leads the Cowboys in rebounds with 5.9 a game and blocks with 2.2. At 6′-11″, he is the only player on the roster over 6′-8″ but he only plays around 18 minutes a game. Michael Cobbing averages 4.5 rebounds and 1.4 blocks a game.
Baylor is outscoring opponents 76-59 this season. The Bears are shooting 48.7% from the field, including 40.4% from 3 point range. Baylor is in the top 20 nationally in both categories. Baylor makes 72.2% from the free throw line. The Bears average 38.2 rebounds a game, and have a rebounding margin of +5.8. Baylor averages 15.2 assists, 15.2 turnovers, 8.9 steals, and 6.5 blocks a game. Baylor opponents are shooting 37.1% from the field, including 32.3% from 3 point range. Baylor is #10 in opponent’s field goal percentage. The Bears force 16.3 turnovers a game on defense.
Baylor has 5 players averaging double digit scoring. Perry Jones III averages 13.4 points, 7.3 rebounds to lead the team, 1 assists, and 1 block a game. Quincy Acy averages 12.1 points, 6.9 rebounds, 1 steal, and 2.4 blocks a game to lead the team. Pierre Jackson averages 11.9 points, 3 rebounds, 4.9 assists, and 1.8 steals a game to lead the team in the latter two categories. He is shooting 48% from 3 point range. Quincy Miller averages 11.1 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 1.9 assists a game. Miller is shooting 34.6% from 3 point range. Brady Heslip averages 10.6 points, 1.3 rebounds, and 1.2 assists a game. He makes 48.5% of his three point shots.
Baylor is 5-4 ATS and the total is also 5-4 this season. OSU is 7-7 ATS and the total is 5-8-1 this season. The home team and favorite are 12-3-1 ATS in this series recently. Eight of the last eleven games in this series have gone over the total including 4 of the last 5 in Baylor. The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in road games, in road games against teams with winning home records, and in Big 12 games, 18-40-2 as a road underdog, 2-5 after a cover, 2-9 in Saturday games, and 1-6 as a road underdog of 13 points or more. The Bears are 4-9 ATS as a home favorite including 3-7 when favored by 13 or more points, 4-11 in home games, 1-4 after a straight up win, against teams with winning records, overall, and as a favorite of 13 points or more, 1-5 in Big 12 games, 0-4 as a favorite, 0-7 after a cover, and 0-5 at home against teams with losing road records.
Baylor is one of the best shooting teams in the nation, but Oklahoma St is one of the best shot defending teams in the country. This game will come down to Baylor’s decided edge in rebounding. On the surface, a 13.5 point spread might seem a little low for an undefeated team playing at home against a 7 loss team. However, Baylor got a hard fought emotional win at Kansas St this week, and has a showdown for first place at Kansas Monday night looming. This could be a sandwich game for the Bears. I think Baylor will win, but the young Cowboys will keep it inside the number.
