Wake Forest Demon Deacons at #3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Saturday, November 17, 2012, 3:30 pm Eastern, TV: NBC
Notre Dame Stadium – South Bend, Indiana
Opening Line: Notre Dame -24
Current Line: Notre Dame -24
Opening Total: 44
Current Total: 42
Opening Money Line: Notre Dame -3000 / Wake Forest +1500
Current Money Line: Notre Dame -3000 / Wake Forest +1500
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are having a dream season. The Fighting Irish are 10-0 and one of 4 undefeated teams left in FBS football, along with Oregon, Kansas St, and Ohio St, who is ineligible for post-season play because of NCAA sanctions. The Irish are #3 in the BCS standings, and most experts say they need a loss by either Oregon, Kansas St or both to lose at least one game in order for Notre Dame to play in the BCS Championship game. That is assuming of course, Notre Dame wins their last two games.
First up is the home finale against 5-5 Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons need at least one win in their last two games to become bowl eligible. This is the second ever meeting between the schools. Notre Dame won the first meeting last season 24-17 in Winston-Salem.
Wake Forest is 3-5 in the ACC under coach Jim Grobe. The Demon Deacons have losses at Florida St 52-0, Maryland 19-14 and last week at North Carolina St 37-6, along with homes losses to Duke 34-27 and Clemson 42-13. Wake Forest has home wins over Liberty 20-17, North Carolina 28-27, Army 49-37, and Boston College28-14, along with a road win at Virginia 16-10. The Demon Deacons are 5-5 ATS and the total is 3-6. Wake was a 9 point underdog and the total was 50 in the NC State game.
Wake Forest is averaging 309.7 yards per game on offense, including 207 passing yards and 102.7 rushing yards. The Demon Deacons are being outscored 29-20 this season. Wake Forest is #113 in total offense, #114 in rushing offense, #88 in passing and #109 in points scored per game out of 124 teams. The Deacons are +7 in turnovers with 12 giveaways. Wake has allowed 23 sacks this season and are averaging 39 penalty yards per game. The Deacons are 60/179 on third and fourth down conversions and 21/23 scoring in the red zone with 17 touchdowns. Wake Forest allows 417.8 yards per game on defense, including 260.9 passing yards and 156.9 rushing yards. The Demon Deacons are #80 in total defense and #101 in passing defense. Wake has forced 19 turnovers and 23 sacks. Deacon opponents are 85/188 on third and fourth down conversions and 37/44 scoring in the red zone with 28 touchdowns.
Wake Forest quarterback Tanner Price has completed 189 of 341 passes (55.4%) for 1,965 yards with 12 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, along with 2 rushing touchdowns. He has been sacked 21 times this season. Running back Josh Harris has 136 carries, 607 yards and 5 touchdowns, along with 18 catches for 83 yards. Deandre Martin has 88 carries, 971 yards and 5 touchdowns, along with 8 catches for 67 yards. Receiver Michael Campanaro has 65 catches, 618 yards with 6 touchdowns, along with 14 carries, 69 yards and a touchdown. Terence Davis has 37 catches, 495 yards and 2 touchdowns. Fullback Tommy Bohanon has no carries but does have 20 catches, 192 yards and 5 touchdowns. Sherman Ragland III and Brandon Terry will also get some targets. Four offensive linemen are listed as questionable or out for Saturday’s game.
Notre Dame is led by coach Brian Kelly. Notre Dame has wins over Navy in Dublin, Ireland 50-10, Miami-(FL) in Chicago 41-3, home wins over Purdue 20-17, Michigan 13-6, Stanford 20-13 in overtime, BYU 17-14 and Pitt 29-26 in triple overtime. Notre Dame also has road wins at Michigan St 20-3, Oklahoma 30-13, and last week at Boston College 21-6. Notre Dame is 5-5 ATS and the total is 2-8 this season. The Fighting Irish were 20 point favorites against BC and the total was 49.
Notre Dame is averaging 403.3 yards per game on offense, including 204.6 passing yards and 198.7 rushing yards. The Irish are #33 in rushing and #91 in passing nationally. Notre Dame is outscoring teams 26-11 this season. They are #80 in scoring offense, but #2 in scoring defense. Notre Dame is +7 in turnovers this season with 13 giveaways. The Fighting Irish have allowed 15 sacks this season and are averaging 43 penalty yards per game. Notre Dame is 69/147 on third and fourth down conversions and 38/49 scoring in the red zone with 24 touchdowns. Notre Dame has one of the best defenses in the country. The Irish are allowing 295.2 yards per game including 199.3 passing yards and 95.9 rushing yards. Notre Dame is in the top 25 nationally in all categories. The Irish have forced 31 sacks and 20 turnovers this season. Notre Dame opponents are 57/156 on third and fourth down conversions, and 18/29 scoring in the red zone with 7 touchdowns.
Notre Dame quarterback Everett Golson has completed 131 of 236 passes (58%) for 1,572 yards with 8 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, along with 79 carries, 258 yards and 5 touchdowns. Back-up quarterback Tommy Rees has completed 32 of 54 passes for 419 yards, along with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.He also has a rushing touchdown. Kelly has used Rees in late game situations when the Irish need a score. It is almost like a closer in baseball. Running back Theo Riddick has 114 carries, 714 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 29 catches for 273 yards and a touchdown. Cierre Wood has 91 carries, 570 yards and 3 touchdowns. George Atkinson III has 42 carries, 312 yards and 4 touchdowns. Tight end Tyler Eifert has 19 catches, 319 yards, and 3 touchdowns. T.J. Jones has 34 catches, 422 yards and 3 touchdowns. Robby Toma will also get some catches. DaVaris Daniels is out indefinitely with a shoulder injury. Four Notre Dame defensive players in the secondary are listed as questionable or out for Saturday’s game.
Wake Forest is 6-0 ATS after failing to cover, 10-1 after a straight up loss, 4-1 after rushing for less than 100 yards, and against independent teams, 5-2 in November, and after scoring less than 20 points, 2-5 after passing for less than 170 yards, 1-7 in road games against teams with winning home records, and 0-4 against teams with winning records.
Notre Dame is 2-5 ATS at home, 1-4 after a straight up win, and overall, and 0-4 in November.
Notre Dame is 5-5 ATS this season, and the five games they covered were against Navy, Michigan, Michigan St, Miami, and Oklahoma. All of those teams are likely headed to bowl games. The other five games the Irish struggled to beat Purdue, Stanford, BYU, Pitt and Boston College. All except Stanford are mediocre at best. Notre Dame has mostly played to the level of their competition especially at home. There is no question Notre Dame is the better team and can easily lay a beat down on an average Wake Forest team. however, there is no guarantee Notre Dame will even score 24 points in this game, much less be favored by that number. The Fighting Irish have only scored over 24 points 4 times in 10 games this season. I think Wake Forest hangs around and gets the cover.
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