UCLA Bruins at Oregon St Beavers
Reser Stadium – Corvallis, Oregon
Saturday, September 24, 2011, 3:30 pm Eastern, TV: Prime Ticket, Fox College Sports
Opening Line: Oregon St -2 1/2
Current Line: Oregon St -4 1/2
Opening Total: 50 1/2
Current Total: 52
Opening Money Line: Oregon St -175 / UCLA +155
Current Money Line: Oregon St -190 / UCLA +160
UCLA and Oregon St open Pac 12 play against each other in Corvallis Saturday. UCLA, under coach Rick Neuheisel, is 1-2 with losses at Houston 38-34, and last week at home versus Texas 49-20. The Bruins’ only win is 27-17 against San Jose St. Oregon St, coached by Mike Riley is 0-2 with losses to Sacramento St 29-28 in overtime and 35-0 at Wisconsin two weeks ago.
UCLA leads the overall series 40-15-4 including a 17-14 Bruins’ win last year in Pasadena. In fact, the Bruins have won 2 in a row against the Beavers. The series dates back to 1930.
UCLA was never in the game last week against Texas in the Rose Bowl. Texas jumped out to a 21-0 lead in the second quarter before UCLA got on the board. Texas ended up winning 49-20. The Longhorns had 488 total yards including 284 rushing yards in the romp. UCLA had only 317 total yards and 12 first downs. The Bruins turned the ball over 4 times which didn’t help either.
UCLA is averaging 429.3 yards and 27 points a game. The Bruins are averaging 215 rushing yards a game. The Bruins have 7 turnovers and have allowed one sack. The Bruins are 16/44 on third and fourth down conversions. UCLA is giving up 424.7 yards and 34.7 points a game. UCLA has forced 5 turnovers and 3 sacks so far. Bruin opponents are 26/49 on third and fourth down conversions. The Bruins have gotten off to slow starts getting outscored 66-38 in the first half in the three games combined.
UCLA has alternated quarterbacks this season. Richard Brehaut is 37/68 passing for 559 yards, and 3 touchdowns, along with 26 carries, 130 yards, and a touchdown. Kevin Prince is 6/10 passing with 84 yards, and 3 interceptions, along with 5 carries for 34 yards. Brehaut will start against Oregon St and will get most of the snaps. Running back Johnathan Franklin has 47 carries, 267 yards, and 2 touchdowns, along with 5 catches for 25 yards. Derrick Coleman has 28 carries for 199 yards and 4 touchdowns. Receiver Nelson Rosario has 11 catches for 229 yards, with no touchdowns. Joseph Fauria has 9 catches for 153 yards and 2 touchdown catches. Kip Smith and Jeff Locke have split the kicking duties this season. Smith is 7/8 on extra points and 2/3 on field goals with a long of 38. Locke is 2/2 on extra points and 2/2 on field goals with a long of 51 yards.
Oregon St had a miserable day two weeks ago at Wisconsin. The Beavers had 284 total yards including just 23 rushing yards in the 35-0 defeat. In fact, the most memorable play was a -4 yard punt by Beavers’ punter Johnny Hekker that made ESPN’s not top ten plays. Wisconsin had 397 total yards including 208 rushing yards.
Oregon St is averaging 390 yards and 14 points through two games. The Beavers are averaging 244.5 passing yards a game. The Beavers have 3 turnovers and have allowed 5 sacks. Oregon St is 15/33 on third and fourth down conversions. Oregon St is only 3/6 in the red zone with two touchdowns. Oregon St is allowing 382 yards and 32 points a game. The Beavers are allowing 242 passing yards. OSU has forced 2 turnovers and 3 sacks. Beaver opponents are 18/33 on third and fourth down conversions.
Like UCLA Oregon St has been platooning quarterbacks this season. Sean Mannion is 33/50 passing for 387 yards, and no touchdowns or picks. Ryan Katz is 13/25 passing with 104 yards and an interception. He also has 8 carries for 34 yards. Running back Malcolm Agnew has 33 carries, 323 yards, and 3 touchdowns. He is lifted as doubtful against UCLA with a hamstring injury. If he can’t go, look for Jordan Jenkins to get most of the carries. Jenkins only has 10 carries for 25 yards in 2 games. The top two receivers for the Beavers are both listed as questionable for this game. Markus Wheaton has 14 catches for 191 yards but is questionable with a rib injury. Jordan Bishop has 7 catches for 111 yards but is questionable with an ankle injury. However, receiver James Rodgers and tight end Joe Halahuni are both expected to return to the line-up after missing the first 2 games with injuries. The Beavers have 10 players listed as either questionable, doubtful, or out for the UCLA game. Kicker Trevor Romaine is 2/2 on extra points and 2/3 on field goals with a long of 45 yards.
Oregon St is 0-2 against the spread this season, and the total is 0-1-1 this season. UCLA is 0-3 ATS this season and the total is 2-1 in those games. UCLA has covered the last 2 games against Oregon St and both games have gone under. UCLA is 3-11 ATS in all games the last two seasons, 4-13 ATS versus conference opponents in the last 3 seasons, and 5-14 ATS as an underdog in the same span. The Bruins are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 overall. Oregon St is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 after a bye week, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games, 1-4-1 in the last 6 as a home favorite, and 0-4 in their last 4 overall.
Neither of these teams are very good, and have struggled on both sides of the ball. UCLA is better on offense, and Oregon St is slightly better on defense. I like Oregon St playing at home and coming off a bye, but the line has moved from -2.5 to -4.5. This seems more like a field goal game, so I would take the Bruins, especially with Oregon St’s injury woes.
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