Minnesota Twins (31-39) AT San Francisco Giants (39-33)
June 21, 2011 at 10:15 PM EST
Opening Moneyline:  SFG -150, MIN +130
Current Moneyline:  SFG -144, MIN +125
Opening Total:  7
Current Total:  7

SP:  MIN- Carl Pavano; SFG- Madison Bumgarner

For a team sitting 8 games below .500, things couldn’t look more sunny for the Twins.  They’ve won 14 of their last 16, including their last 7 in a row, and they are feeling good about their chances of making waves this season.

“We’re smiling, we’re laughing.  Winning’s great,”  said Giants infielder Matt Tolbert.  “It’s starting to feel like it did last year.  We just need to keep the momentum.”

The Giants might be just the right team to keep that momentum.  Though they have the better record at this point, they have scored only 7 runs in their last 3 games and have gone 0 of 26 with runners in scoring position.  Despite the three game losing streak, the Giants are still atop the NL West, but the Diamondbacks are threatening them.]

Giants’ first baseman Aubrey Huff was blunt and to the point:

“No one is happy,” first baseman Aubrey Huff(notes) said. “There is no doubt about it that no one is where he wants to be. We have to figure ways to score, and it’s going to be no easy task. We have to start working counts, getting on and putting pressure on the other guys.”

Carl Pavano has been one of many bright spots for the Twins, as he has gone 2-0 with a 1.44 ERA in his three starts this month, two of which he pitched complete games.  He’s coming off a victory on last Wednesday against teh White Sox, in which he threw only 96 pitches.

“I feel like I’m settling in a little better as far as getting a little stronger and consistent with the things I’m trying to establish, and so is the team,” said Pavano.

The Twins have a host of injured players.  Denard Span, Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel, and Jim Thome are all out.  They did, however, get Joe Mauer back on Friday, but he is still struggling to get into the flow and hit 1 of 11 against San Diego.

Madison Bumgarner will take the mound for the Giants.  He is 3-8 despite a great 3.21 ERA, a true testament to the lack of run support he has received.  He’s given up 3 or fewer runs in each of his last 10 starts, most of which have been quality starts, as he’s recorded a 2.03 ERA during that span.  It was Bumgarner who started in the Giants’ last win, as he threw six innings and gave up only 2 runs in a win against the Diamondbacks on Wednesday.

Bumgarner has been in much better condition this year than he was for most of last year, when he blamed his poor conditioning for the loss of speed on his fastball.  His PECOTA projections predict an 11-8 season with a 3.84 ERA.

Some betting trends:

The total has gone UNDER In 4 of Minnesota’s last 6 games and the Twins are 5-0 in their last 5 games.  The total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 6 on the road and the Twins are 6-1 SU in their last 7 road games.

The San Francisco Giants are 1-4 SU in their last 5 game sand the total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 5 games and has also gone UNDER in 5 of their last 6 at home.  The Giants are 15-7 SU in their last 22 home games.

Both Pavano and Bumgarner have been effective this year, with Bumgarner being the more impressive and a large pat of why the Giants are favorites in this one.  This should be a bit of a pitcher’s duel and the total is set low accordingly at 7.