Western Michigan Broncos at Toledo Rockets
Glass Bowl – Toledo, Ohio
Tuesday, November 8, 2011, 8:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPNU
Opening Line: Toledo -12 1/2
Current Line: Toledo -11 1/2
Opening Total: 68
Current Total: 68
Opening Money Line: Toledo -425 / WMU +340
Current Money Line: Toledo -360 / WMU +300
Last week, Toledo hosted Northern Illinois in a battle for first place in the MAC West division. To say it was an offensive shootout would be an understatement. Northern Illinois ended up winning 63-60. By contrast, the last time the schools played basketball last season, the score was 64-54 which was only 118 points, or 5 points less than the points scored in the football game! The 5-4 Rockets try to rebound as they host the 5-4 Western Michigan Broncos. Toledo is coached by Tim Beckman, and is 4-1 in conference, while Western Michigan is coached by Bill Cubit and is 3-2 in conference. The Broncos have losses at Michigan 34-10, Illinois, 23-20, Northern Illinois 51-22 and Eastern Michigan 14-10. WMU has home wins against Nicholls St 38-7, Central Michigan 44-14, Bowling Green 45-21, and two weeks ago against Ball St 45-35, along with a road win at Connecticut 38-31. Toledo has home wins over New Hampshire 58-22, Eastern Michigan 54-16, and Miami-Ohio 49-28, along with road wins at Temple 36-13, and Bowling Green 28-21. Toledo has losses at Ohio St 27-22, and Syracuse 33-30, along with a home loss to Boise St 40-15 in addition to the Northern Illinois loss. Toledo leads the overall series 37-28 against WMU including 19-11 in Toledo. Toledo won last year on the road 37-24 to snap a four game winning streak in the series for Western.
Two weeks ago, Western Michigan hosted Ball St. The two teams were tied at 7 at the end of the first quarter before a wild second quarter in which WMU outscored them 28-21. The second half scoring settled down with only 17 points. Western Michigan won the game 45-35, but did not cover the 11.5 point spread on the college football betting line. The game featured 20 total penalties (11 by Western Michigan) and 6 turnovers (4 by Western Michigan.) The Broncos had 610 total yards, including 465 passing yards. WMU quarterback Alex Carder threw for 404 yards with 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions along with 12 carries, 36 yards and a touchdown. Receiver Robert Arnheim threw a 61 yard touchdown pass in his only attempt. He also had 8 catches, 104 yards, and a touchdown reception. Jordan White had 9 catches, 172 yards and two touchdown catches. Chleb Ravenell had 9 catches for 157 yards. Running back Tevin Drake had 16 carries, 85 yards and 2 touchdowns. Ball St had 555 total yards including 220 rushing yards.
Western Michigan is averaging 421.3 yards a game and 30.2 points a game. The Broncos average 292.4 passing yards and 128.9 rushing yards a game. WMU has 19 turnovers and has allowed 17 sacks this season. The Broncos are 65/135 on third and fourth down conversions, and 33/35 scoring in the red zone with 25 touchdowns. Western Michigan is allowing 414.6 yards a game and 25.6 points per game on defense. The Broncos give up 198.3 passing yards and 216.2 rushing yards a game. WMU has forced 14 turnovers and 15 sacks this season. Bronco opponents are 51/133 on third and fourth down conversions and 24/35 scoring in the red zone with 18 touchdowns. The Broncos average just under 8 penalties for 57 yards a game. WMU has no defensive or special teams touchdowns but has allowed 4.
Carder is 203/298 passing for 2,274 yards, with 18 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, plus 88 carries, 218 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Drake has 72 carries, 407 yards, and 4 touchdowns. Brian Fields has 50 carries, 247 yards, and 2 touchdowns, along with 11 catches for 99 yards. Antoin Scriven has only 18 carries, but has 3 touchdown runs. Receiver Jordan White has 83 catches, 1,045 yards, and 9 touchdown catches. White has 1,349 all purpose yards as he also returns punts. Arnheim has 42 catches, 487 yards, and two touchdowns. Ravenell has 36 catches, 485 yards, and 5 touchdowns. Kicker John Potter is 32/32 on extra points and 12/16 on field goals with a long of 45 yards.
Well, if you like offensive football then last week’s Northern Illinois-Toledo game was for you. Toledo was a 9.5 point favorite, but were down 28-24 at the halftime on the strength of two Northern Illinois kickoff returns in the first quarter for touchdowns. Both teams scored 14 in the third quarter but in the fourth quarter they exploded for 43 combined points. Northern Illinois won 63-60. Toledo took a 60-56 lead with 4 minutes to go. Northern Illinois scored with 19 seconds to go to win the game. Northern Illinois had the only turnover in the game. Toledo had 9 penalties. The Rockets had 589 total yards including 264 rushing yards. Toledo quarterback Austin Dantin threw for 322 yards with 5 touchdowns, and had 11 carries, for 60 yards and a touchdown. Running back Adonis Thomas had 25 carries, 160 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Receiver Eric Page had had 9 catches, 150 yards, and 5 touchdown catches. Northern Illinois had 532 total yards including 267 rushing yards.
Toledo is averaging 456.1 yards a game including 259.8 passing yards and 196.3 rushing yards. The Rockets are scoring 39.1 points a game which is #12 in the nation. Toledo only has 6 turnovers on the year and has allowed 9 sacks. The Rockets are 72/146 on third and fourth down conversions, and 37/40 scoring in the red zone with 30 touchdowns. Toledo allows 381.9 yards and 29.2 points a game. The Rockets give up 248.6 passing yards and 133.3 rushing yards. Toledo has forced 20 turnovers and 15 sacks this season. Rocket opponents are 52/139 on third and fourth down conversions, and 28/32 scoring in the red zone with 22 touchdowns. Toledo averages over 7 penalties a game for 58 yards. Toledo has 2 defensive/special teams touchdowns, but has allowed 4 kickoffs or punts to be returned for touchdowns.
Toledo quarterbacks Dantin and Terrance Owens have split the snaps this season. Dantin is 112/171 passing with 1,331 yards, 14 touchdowns and 1 interception, along with 58 carries for 185 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Owens is 74/115 passing with 952 yards, 6 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, and 24 carries for 95 yards. Running back Morgan Williams has 97 carries, 497 yards, and 9 touchdowns, along with 12 catches, 126 yards and 2 touchdowns. Thomas has 73 carries, 475 yards, and 6 touchdowns, along with 15 catches for 191 yards. David Fluellen has 76 carries, 410 yards, and 3 touchdowns, plus 15 catches, 155 yards and 2 touchdowns. Page has 75 catches, 814 yards, and 8 touchdowns. He also has a punt return for a touchdown, and has 1,578 all purpose yards. Bernard Reedy has 26 catches, 463 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Seven other Toledo receivers have at least one touchdown catch, including the running backs. Kicker Ryan Casano is 40/41 on extra points and 8/11 on field goals with a long of 38 yards. Jeremiah Detmer handles the long field goals and is 2/2 with a long of 52 yards. Four Toledo defensive players are listed as questionable or out for this game.
Toledo is 5-4 against the spread this season and the total is also 5-4 in those games. Western Michigan is also 5-4 ATS and the total is 5-4 as well in those games. The last two games have gone over the total in this series. The Broncos 5-1-2 ATS after a straight up win, 10-21-3 against teams with winning records, 2-5-2 after scoring 40 points or more the previous game, 4-13-2 as an underdog, including 4-11-2 on the road, 1-5-1 as a road underdog of 10.5 points or more, 1-7 on the road teams with winning home records, and 0-3-1 in Tuesday games. The Rockets are 7-0 ATS after allowing 40 points or more in the previous game, 4-0 as a favorite of 10.5 points or more, 5-1 after failing to cover, as a home favorite, 4-1 as a home favorite of 10.5 points or more, 6-2 as a favorite, 5-2 in conference games, 5-2-1 at home, 1-4-1 after scoring more than 40 points in the previous game, and 1-4 in Tuesday games.
Though both these teams are 5-4, Toledo is the better team. Three of their losses are by a total of 11 points, and all are to likely bowl teams. Toledo should have beaten Syracuse as officials gave Syracuse an extra point that replays clearly showed missed, a play that has been Sportscenter’s Worst of the worst play for 6 straight weeks. I just think this is too many points. This could be another shootout as neither Toledo or Western Michigan have great defenses and both have explosive offenses.
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