Miami RedHawks at Ohio Bobcats
Peden Stadium – Athens, Ohio
Tuesday, November 22, 2011, 7:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN2
Opening Line: Ohio -6 1/2
Current Line: Ohio -9
Opening Total: 53
Current Total: 53
Opening Money Line: Ohio -280 / Miami +240
Current Money Line: Ohio -330 / Miami +280

Ohio has already clinched a spot in next week’s MAC Championship game with a 5-2 record in the East Division. The Bobcats are 8-3 overall under coach Frank Solich as they host arch-rival Miami-Ohio Tuesday night. Miami is 4-7 this season under coach Don Treadwell, and really has nothing to play for except for pride and bragging rights. Of course anytime you have a chance to beat your rival, that is motivation enough. Ohio has won 4 straight games including 29-28 last week at Bowling Green. Miami has lost 2 games in a row including last week at home against Western Michigan 24-21. Miami leads the overall series 51-34-2, but Ohio has won 5 straight including 34-13 last year in Oxford.

Miami hosted Western Michigan last week, and the Broncos were 1 1/2 point favorites. The two teams were scoreless in the first quarter but Miami took a 14-10 lead at halftime. Western Michigan took a 24-14 lead the fourth quarter. The RedHawks scored a touchdown with 3 minutes left to pull within 3. Instead of trying the onside kick, Miami kicked deep and never got the ball back making  the final 24-21 Broncos. The RedHawks had 466 total yards including 413 passing yards from quarterback Zac Dysert who had 3 touchdown passes and an interception. Receiver Nick Harwell had 14 catches, 138 yards and 3 touchdowns. Chris Givens had 13 catches for 141 yards. He is listed as questionable against Ohio with an undisclosed injury. Miami had 6 penalties and 2 turnovers. Western Michigan had 4 penalties and a turnover. The Broncos had 471 total yards and 429 passing yards.

Miami averages 367.5 total yards and 22 points a game. The passing attack is #16 in the country with 292.5 yards, but the rushing game is the worst in the country averaging 75 yards a game. Miami has 21 turnovers and has allowed 42 sacks this season. Miami is 69/174 on third and fourth down conversions, and 26/34 scoring in the red zone with 25 touchdowns. The RedHawks give up 357.2 total yards and 23.1 points a game. Miami allows 194.5 passing yards and 162.7 rushing yards per game. The pass defense is #25 in the country. The RedHawks have forced 24 sacks and 16 turnovers. Miami opponents are 70/182 on third and fourth down conversions, and 34/42 scoring in the red zone with 25 touchdowns. Miami has one defensive touchdown but has allowed 3 this season.

Dysert is 260/395 passing with 3,141 yards, along with 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, along with 103 carries for 58 yards and 3 touchdowns. Back-up Austin Boucher has a touchdown pass in 10 attempts this season. Running back Erik Finklea had 92 carries, 328 yards, and 4 touchdowns. He hasn’t played in four games but isn’t listed on the injury report. Justin Semmes has 41 carries, 170 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 8 catches, 79 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Semmes missed the last game with an ankle injury and is questionable this week. Tyrone Jones and Chrishawn Dupuy also get significant carries. Harwell has 83 catches for 1,262 yards and 8 touchdowns. Givens has 52 catches, 603 yards, and 5 touchdowns.  Dawan Scott has 18 catches, 403 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Andy Cruse has 40 catches, 359 yards, and 4 touchdowns.  Kicker Mason Krysinski is 30/33 on extra points and 2/5 on field goals with a long of 45 yards. Eight RedHawk players are questionable or out indefinitely including 7 defensive players.

Ohio was a 7 point favorite on the college football betting line last week at Bowling Green. Ohio was up 16-14 at halftime. Bowling Green took a 28-19 lead in the fourth quarter, but Ohio scored the last 10 points including a 23 yard field goal from Matt Weller as time expired to win 29-28. It was his fifth field goal of the game. The game featured 5 combined turnovers (3 by Bowling Green.) Ohio had 447 total yards including 253 rushing yards. Bobcat quarterback Tyler Tettleton threw for 194 yards and a touchdown, and rushed for 128 yards and a touchdown. Receiver Riley Dunlop had 5 catches for 96 yards. LaVon Brazill had 5 catches for 43 yards and a touchdown. Bowling Green had 347 total yards including 232 passing yards.

Ohio is averaging 463.9 yards a game including 254.1 passing yards and 209.8 rushing yards. The Bobcats score 32.9 points a game. Ohio has 23 turnovers and has allowed 19 sacks this season. The Bobcats are 88/175 on third and fourth down conversions, and 43/53 scoring in the red zone with 26 touchdowns. Ohio gives up 343.2 total yards, including 213.5 passing yards and 129.7 rushing yards a game. The Bobcats are allowing 22.7 points a game. Ohio has forced 22 turnovers and 15 sacks this season. Bobcat opponents are 70/182 on third and fourth down conversions, and 30/34 scoring in the red zone with 22 touchdowns. Ohio has 2 defensive/special teams touchdowns this season. The Bobcats average over 6 penalties a game for 64 yards.

Tettleton is 209/329 for 2,653 yards, 23 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, along with 120 carries, 465 yards, and 8 touchdowns. Running back Donte Harden has 134 carries, 795 yards, and 2 touchdowns, along with 19 catches, 214 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Harden has over 1,500 all purpose yards. Ryan Boykin has 103 carries, 428 yards and a touchdown, along with 14 catches, 92 yards, and a touchdown. He missed the Bowling Green game but isn’t listed on the injury report. Beau Blankenship has 74 carries, 365 yards, and 4 touchdowns. Brazill has 52 catches, 872 yards, and 10 touchdown catches, plus a rushing touchdown. Dunlop has 34 catches, 490 yards, and 5 touchdowns. Donte Foster has 22 catches, 255 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Kicker Matt Weller is 40/41 on extra points and 22/29 on field goals with a long of 49 yards. Ohio has 6 players listed as questionable or out for the season, including 3 tight ends and 2 defensive players.

Ohio is 5-6 against the spread and the total is 7-4 this season. Miami is 6-5 ATS and the total is also 6-5 this season. Ohio has won and covered 5 straight against Miami and the last 2 have gone under the total. Miami is 7-2 ATS after failing to cover, 5-2 overall, and 0-4 as a road underdog of of between 3.5 and 10 points. Ohio is 9-2 ATS in November, 6-2 as a home favorite of between 3.5 and 10 points, 18-8 in conference, and 28-13-2 after a straight up win.

Ohio opened up as a 6 1/2 point favorite but were quickly bet up to -9. This is because Ohio is one of the best teams in the MAC and has dominated the series recently against Miami. However, Ohio has already clinched a spot in the MAC Championship against either Northern Illinois or Toledo, and might pull their starters in the second half to avoid injury. If that happens I could see a backdoor cover for Miami.

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