Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Smith Stadium – Bowling Green, Kentucky
Tuesday, October 15, 2013, 8:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN2
Opening Line: Western Kentucky -6
Current Line: Western Kentucky -4 1/2
Opening Total: 62 1/2
Current Total: 62 1/2
Opening Money Line: WKU -185 / ULL +160
Current Money Line: WKU -185 / ULL +160
The 3-2 Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns travel to the 4-2 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Tuesday night in a key Sun Belt Conference game. The Cajuns are 1-0 in the Sun Belt and tied with Arkansas State for the conference lead. The Hilltoppers are 1-1 in the Sun Belt. Every other team in the conference has at least 3 losses overall. ULL leads the series against Western Kentucky 4-2 and won last year’s meeting 31-27 in Lafayette.
Louisiana-Lafayette is coached by Mark Hudspeth. The Ragin’ Cajuns opened the season with road losses at Arkansas 34-14 and Kansas State 48-27. ULL has since won 3 straight including home wins over Nicholls State 70-7 and two weeks ago against Texas State 48-24. The Cajuns also have a road win at Akron 35-30. ULL is 2-3 ATS and the total is 4-1 this season. The Ragin’ Cajuns were 11 point favorites against Texas State and the total was 54.5.
ULL jumped out to a 21-0 lead early and would never look back. It would be 28-3 at halftime. The Cajuns would expand the lead to 45-3 and 48-10. Texas State would add two late touchdowns to make the final 48-24. The Bobcats scored 14 of their 24 points on kickoff returns of 92 and 100 yards. ULL had 572 total yards including 360 passing and 212 rushing yards. Texas State had 196 total yards and 11 first downs. The Bobcats had 2 turnovers and ULL had one.
Louisiana-Lafayette is outscoring teams 39-29 this season. The Cajuns are #24 in scoring and #83 in points allowed nationally. ULL is averaging 459.2 yards per game including 242 passing and 217.2 rushing yards. The Cajuns are #35 in total offense and #24 in rushing. On defense, ULL is allowing 386.4 yards per game including 219.2 passing and 167.2 rushing yards. The Cajuns are +6 in turnovers with 12 takeaways. ULL is averaging 47 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 36. The Cajuns are 32/72 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 32/77. ULL has forced 6 sacks and allowed 9. The Cajuns are 22/25 scoring in the red zone with 18 touchdowns, and opponents are 12/14 with 7 touchdowns. ULL has allowed 3 kick returns for touchdowns and the Cajuns have a pick six and a kick return for a touchdown.
ULL quarterback Terrance Broadway has completed 65.6% of his passes for 1,153 yards with 10 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, along with 51 carries, 154 yards and 4 touchdowns. Running back Alonzo Harris has 55 carries, 329 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 3 catches. Elijah McGuire has 32 carries for 244 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 4 catches for 55 yards. Torrey Pierce has 28 carries, 151 yards and 2 touchdowns. Receiver Jamal Robinson has 23 catches for 379 yards and 6 touchdowns. Darryl Surgent has 17 catches for 186 yards and 2 touchdowns. James Butler, Devin Figaro, and Jacob Maxwell will also get significant catches.
Western Kentucky is coached by Bobby Petrino. The Hilltoppers opened the season with a 35-26 win over Kentucky in Nashville. WKU then lost at Tennessee 52-20 and South Alabama 31-24. The Hilltoppers have won 3 straight games including home wins over Morgan State 58-17 and Navy 19-7, along with a 31-10 win at Louisiana-Monroe two weeks ago. Western Kentucky is 4-2 ATS and the total is 3-3 this season. The Hilltoppers were 7.5 point favorites at ULM and the total was 49.
Western Kentucky took an early 14-0 lead against Louisiana-Monroe but the Warhawks would make it 14-10 at halftime. In the second half, Western Kentucky outscored ULM 17-0 to secure the 21 point victory. The Hilltoppers had 530 total yards including 370 passing yards. ULM had 391 total yards including 275 passing yards. WKU had one turnover and ULM had two.
Western Kentucky is outscoring teams 31-24 this season. The Hilltoppers are averaging 473.7 yards per game on offense including 259 passing and 214.7 rushing yards. WKU is 46th or better nationally in all three categories. On defense, the Hilltoppers are allowing 351 yards per game including 183.5 passing and 167.5 rushing yards. WKU is #30 in total defense and #17 in pass defense. The Hilltoppers are -9 in turnovers with 18 giveaways. WKU averages 47 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 41. The Hilltoppers are 44/90 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 31/83. Western Kentucky has forced 11 sacks and allowed 8 this season. The Hilltoppers are 26/33 scoring in the red zone with 21 touchdowns, and opponents are 19/23 with 13 touchdowns. WKU has a defensive touchdowns but has thrown two pick sixes this season.
Hilltopper quarterback Brandon Doughty has completed 67.2% of his passes for 1,398 yards with 7 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. If Doughty continues to throw so many interceptions he could be benched in favor of back-up Todd Porter. Porter has thrown for 76 yards on 5/10 passing with an interception. Nelson Fishback and DaMarcus Smith have also taken a few snaps at quarterback. Fishback has a rushing touchdown and Smith has thrown an interception.
Running back Antonio Andrews has 124 carries for 882 yards with 9 touchdowns, along with 16 catches for 176 yards. Leon Allen has 45 carries, 229 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 12 catches for 91 yards and a touchdown. Keyshawn Simpson has 20 carries, 85 yards and a touchdown. Receiver Willie McNeal has 18 catches, 262 yards and a touchdown. Joel German has 21 catches for 256 yards. Nicholas Norris has 16 catches, 192 yards and 3 touchdowns. Mitchell Henry has 15 catches, 181 yards and a touchdown. Including the running backs, eight WKU receivers have at least 12 catches. Three defensive backs are out for the season for the Hilltoppers.
Louisiana-Lafayette is 12-2 ATS after passing for more than 280 yards, 5-1 after a straight up win, 10-2 against teams with winning records, 4-1 in Sun Belt games, 8-2 against teams with winning home records, 20-8 in road games, 2-6 after allowing less than 275 total yards, 1-4 after gaining more than 450 total yards, 1-5 after scoring more than 40 points, and 0-5 on fieldturf. The over is 3-0-1 in this series recently.
Western Kentucky is 4-0 ATS after a straight up win of 20 points or more, and after a bye week, 8-1 in October, and after allowing less than 20 points, 13-4 after a straight up win, 21-7 overall, 22-8 in conference games, 21-8 after a cover, 15-6 after gaining more than 450 total yards, 7-3 against teams with winning records, 9-4 at home, and 2-5 on fieldturf.
Western Kentucky needs to protect the football against a Louisiana-Lafayette team that is good at forcing turnovers. Both teams are capable of scoring lots of points, but Western Kentucky has a better defense. Still I like the Ragin’ Cajuns to pull off the upset on the road.
