Ball State Cardinals at #25 Toledo Rockets
Tuesday, November 6, 2012, 8:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN2
Glass Bowl – Toledo, Ohio
Opening Line: Toledo -7
Current Line: Toledo -6 1/2
Opening Total: 67
Current Total: 69
Opening Money Line: Toledo -260 / Ball State +220
Current Money Line: Toledo -245 / Ball State +205
The Toledo Rockets host the Ball State Cardinals Tuesday night in a key MAC battle. Toledo leads the series 19-17-1, including 11-6-1 in Toledo. The Rockets won last year in Muncie 45-28.
Ball State is 6-3 this season and 3-2 in the MAC West under coach Pete Lembo. The Cardinals are in third place in the division, but are behind 6-0 Northern Illinois and 5-0 Toledo. Ball State has losses at Clemson 52-27, and Kent St 45-43 along with a home loss to Northern Illinois 35-23. The Cardinals have home wins over Eastern Michigan 37-26, South Florida 31-27, and Western Michigan 30-24 in overtime, along with road wins at Indiana 41-39, Central Michigan 41-30, and Army 30-22. The Cardinals were off last week because of the Tuesday game. Ball State has won three straight games. The Cardinals are 7-2 ATS and the total is 5-3-1 this season. Ball State was a 3 point favorite in their last game against Army and the total was 68.
Ball State is averaging 473.2 yards per game on offense, including 270.8 passing yards and 202.4 rushing yards. The Cardinals are outscoring teams 33.7-33.3 this season. Ball St is 41st or higher in all offensive categories nationally. The Cardinals are -2 in turnovers, with 13 giveaways. Ball State has allowed 8 sacks this season. Ball State is 71/154 on third and fourth down conversions, and 42/50 scoring in the red zone with 29 touchdowns. On defense, Ball State is allowing 465.2 yards per game including 262.4 passing yards and 202.8. The Cardinals are #101 out of 124 FBS teams in all defensive categories including points allowed. Ball State has forced 12 sacks and 11 turnovers. Cardinal opponents are 60/137 on third and fourth down conversions, and 28/32 scoring in the red zone with 24 touchdowns.
Ball State quarterback Keith Wenning has completed 234 of 364 passes (64.3%) for 2,425 yards with 17 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, along with 45 carries, 98 yards and 3 touchdowns. Weening also has a touchdown catch. Running back Jahwan Edwards has 167 carries, 949 yards and 9 touchdowns, along with 8 catches for 45 yards. Barrington Scott has 91 carries, 366 yards and a touchdown, along with a receiving touchdown in his only catch. Horactio Banks has 64 carries, 336 yards and 3 touchdowns. He is questionable with a knee injury. Receiver Willie Snead has 68 catches, 901 yards and 6 touchdowns. Jamil Smith has 60 catches, 641 and 4 touchdowns, along with 8 carries for 55 yards. Smith also threw a touchdown pass. Tight end Zane Fakes has 36 catches, 280 yards and 3 touchdowns. Connor Ryan has 32 catches, 221 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Toledo is 8-1 this season and 5-0 in the MAC West under first year coach Matt Campbell. The Rockets have won 8 straight games since a season opening loss at Arizona 24-17 in overtime. Toledo has home wins over Bowling Green 27-15, Coastal Carolina 38-28, Central Michigan 50-35, and Cincinnati 29-23, along with road wins at Wyoming 34-31, Western Michigan 37-17, Eastern Michigan 52-47 and at Buffalo 25-20 in their last game. Like Ball St, Toledo was off last week. The Rockets are 6-3 ATS and the total is 3-5 this season. Toledo was a 7.5 point favorite in the Buffalo game and the total was 61.5.
Toledo is averaging 454.7 yards per game on offense, including 255.6 passing yards and 199.1 rushing yards per game. The Rockets are outscoring teams 34-27 this season. Toledo is in the top 50 nationally in all offensive categories. The Rockets are +7 in turnovers with 11 giveaways. Toledo is averaging 63.8 yards per game and has allowed 15 sacks. The Rockets are 67/150 on third and fourth down conversions and 30/36 scoring in the red zone with 17 touchdowns. On defense, Toledo is allowing 465 yards per game including 287.8 passing yards and 177.2 rushing yards. The Rockets are #108 in total defense, #114 in pass defense, 82nd against the rush but #61 in scoring defense. This is mainly because the Rockets have forced 18 turnovers and 18 sacks. Toledo opponents are 50/142 on third and fourth down conversions and 20/30 scoring in the red zone with 14 touchdowns. The Rockets have 8 defensive/special teams touchdowns this season.
Toledo quarterback Terrance Owens has completed 173 of 274 passes (63.1%) for 2,197 yards with 13 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, along with 74 carries, 264 yards and 4 touchdowns. Running back David Fluellen has 196 carries, 1,181 yards and 11 touchdowns, along with 23 catches for 173 yards. Cassius McDowell has 61 carries, 293 yards and a touchdown, along with 17 catches, 145 yards and a touchdown. Receiver Bernard Reedy has 61 catches, 803 yards and 5 touchdowns. He is one of the best return men in the country with 2 kickoff returns and a punt return for touchdowns. He has over 1,500 all-purpose yards. Alonzo Russell has 42 catches, 733 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Ball St is 5-0 ATS after rushing for 200 yards or more, 7-1 after a straight up win , and after a bye, 5-1 after a cover, 12-3 overall, and on fieldturf, 19-7 in road games against teams with winning home records, 8-3 in MAC games, 37-14 in road games, 5-2 in Tuesday games, and after allowing more than 200 yards rushing, and 1-4 after allowing less than 170 passing yards. The Cardinals are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 against Toledo and the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 7.
Toledo is 19-7 ATS after failing to cover, 5-2 in MAC games, and after rushing for 200 yards or more, 0-5 after a bye week, 0-4 in Tuesday games and at home against teams with winning road records. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 in this series.
Neither one of these teams has a good defense, so I expect a ton of points tonight. Toledo is red hot having won 8 straight games, but they have a showdown with Northern Illinois next week which will likely decide the division title. I could see Toledo looking ahead. I think the Rockets win but only by a field goal.
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