#7 Oregon Ducks at #4 Stanford Cardinal
Stanford Stadium – Palo Alto, California
Saturday, November 12, 2011, 8:00 pm Eastern, TV: ABC
Opening Line: Stanford -3 (-105)
Current Line: Stanford -3 1/2
Opening Total: 68
Current Total: 68
Opening Money Line: Stanford -160 / Oregon +140
Current Money Line: Stanford -160 / Oregon +140
Much like the SEC West is much stronger than the SEC East, the Pac 12 North is much stronger than the Pac 12 South. Most people are saying this game between #7 Oregon and #4 Stanford is the de facto Pac 12 championship game even if the official game isn’t until next month. Oregon is coached by Chip Kelly and is 8-0 since a season opening loss to #1 LSU in Arlington, Texas. The Ducks are 6-0 in Pac 12 play. Oregon has home wins over Nevada 69-20, Missouri St 56-7, California 43-15, Arizona St 41-27, and Washington St 43-28, along with road wins at Arizona 56-31, Colorado 45-2, and last week at Washington 34-17. Stanford is 9-0 (7-0 in Pac 12) under first year coach David Shaw. The Cardinal are one of 5 undefeated teams and have a shot at playing for the National Championship if they run the table. Stanford has home wins over San Jose St 57-3, UCLA 45-19, Colorado 48-7, and Washington 65-21, along with road wins at Duke 44-14, Arizona 37-10, Washington St 44-14, USC 56-48 in triple overtime, and last week at Oregon St 38-13. Stanford leads the overall series against Oregon 44-29-1 including 28-13-1 in Palo Alto. Oregon has won 8 of the last 9 against Stanford including 52-31 last year in Eugene. That was the last time Stanford lost a game. Stanford has won 17 straight games dating back to last year and Oregon has won 18 straight Pac 12 games.
Last week, Oregon traveled north to take on rival Washington in Seattle. Oregon was up 17-10 at halftime, and scored 17 third quarter points to take control of the game. Neither team scored in the fourth quarter, and the final was 34-17 Ducks, to cover the 16.5 point spread on the college football betting line by half a point. Oregon had 9 penalties and a turnover. Washington had 3 turnovers. The Ducks had 381 total yards including 212 rushing yards. Quarterback Darron Thomas threw for 169 yards and a touchdown. Running back LaMichael James rushed for 156 yards on 25 carries with a touchdown. Kenjon Barner and De’Anthony Thomas also had rushing touchdowns. David Paulson had 3 catches for 65 yards and a touchdown. Washington had 278 total yards including 82 rushing yards.
Oregon is averaging 510.7 total yards, including 298.4 rushing yards and is scoring 46 points a game. All three are in the top 7 nationally. Oregon averages 212.2 passing yards a game. The Ducks have allowed 5 sacks and have 10 turnovers this season. Oregon is 60/128 on third and fourth down conversions, and 38/42 scoring in the red zone with 32 touchdowns. The Ducks are giving up 383.8 yards and 20.8 points a game. They have given up 149.2 rushing yards and 234.6 passing yards a game. The Ducks have forced 29 sacks and 12 turnovers. Oregon opponents are 64/171 on third and fourth down conversions, and 25/33 scoring in the red zone with 17 touchdowns. Oregon has 6 defensive/special teams touchdowns and has 4 blocked kicks.
Thomas is 113/188 passing with 1,549 yards, 19 touchdowns and 5 interceptions this season, along with 26 carries for 114 yards and 2 touchdown runs. Back-up Bryan Bennett is 24/45 passing for 361 yards and 6 touchdown passes, along with 21 carries for 90 yards. James has 133 carries for 1,061 yards, and 9 touchdowns along with 12 catches, 165 yards, and a touchdown catch. James has over 1,300 all-purpose yards and has a punt return for a touchdown. Barner has 89 carries, 601 yards, and 8 touchdowns, along with 7 catches for 69 yards and a touchdown. Running back De’Anthony Thomas has 41 carries, 349 yards, and 5 rushing touchdown to go along with 25 catches, 382 yards, and 6 scores. He also has over 1,300 all-purpose yards, and has a kickoff return for a touchdown. Receiver Lavasier Tuinei has 28 catches, 360 yards, and 7 scores. Josh Huff has 17 catches, 237 yards, and a touchdown. Paulson has 17 catches, 233 yards, and 4 touchdowns Colt Lyerla has 3 catches, 53 yards, and 3 scores. Kicker Alejandro Maldonado is 48/49 on extra points and is 5/9 on field goals with a long of 40 yards. Rob Beard is 2/2 on field goals with a long of 30 yards and has also kicked 3 extra points this season. Oregon has 6 players listed as questionable, doubtful or out including 3 defensive players.
For a while last week it look like Stanford had their eye on the game this week as they played Oregon St in Corvallis. At one point in the second half Stanford was only up 17-13, but the Cardinal scored 21 unanswered points to win 38-13 and cover the 20.5 point spread. Each team had one turnover in the game. Stanford had 507 total yards including 300 rushing yards. Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck, a Heisman trophy contender if not the favorite, threw for 206 yards with 3 touchdowns and an interception, along with 4 carries for 28 yards. Running back Stepfan Taylor had 13 carries for 95 yards, plus 2 catches for 26 yards and a touchdown. Tyler Gaffney had 12 carries, 56 yards and a touchdown run. Jeremy Stewart had 9 carries, 47 yards, and a touchdown. Receiver Griff Whalen had 6 catches, 87 yards and a touchdown. Coby Fleener also had a touchdown catch for the Cardinal. Oregon St had 285 total yards including just 33 rushing yards and 13 first downs.
Stanford is averaging 505.8 yards a game and 48.2 points a game. The Cardinal average 281.1 passing yards and 224.7 rushing yards a game. Stanford has 7 turnovers and has allowed just 4 sacks. The Cardinal are 73/128 on third and fourth down conversions, and 52/52 scoring in the red zone with 41 touchdowns. Stanford is giving up 324 yards and 16.6 points a game. The Cardinal allow 245.1 passing yards, and 78.9 rushing yards a game. The rush defense is #3 in the country. Stanford has forced 14 turnovers and 28 sacks this season. Cardinal opponents are 41/131 on third and fourth down conversions, and 16/24 scoring in the red zone with 13 touchdowns. Stanford has 4 defensive/special teams touchdowns this season.
Luck is 194/272 passing for 2,424 yards, with 26 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, along with 29 carries for 147 yards and 2 touchdowns. Luck rushed for nearly 500 yards last season with 3 touchdowns, but he won’t get near those numbers this year as Stanford wants to protect their star quarterback now and for his future in the NFL. Taylor has 147 carries, 891 yards, and 8 touchdowns, along with 18 catches for 132 yards and 2 touchdowns. Gaffney has 54 catches, 344 yards, and 6 touchdowns, along with 8 catches, 46 yards, and a touchdown. Anthony Wilkerson has 50 carries, 253 yards, and 3 interceptions. Stewart has 41 catches, 166 yards, and 7 touchdowns, along with 5 catches for 52 yards. Whalen has 36 catches, 534 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Fleener has 20 catches, 431 yards, and 8 touchdowns. Chris Owusu has 35 catches, 376 yards, and 2 touchdowns. He is out Saturday with a concussion. Zach Ertz has 22 catches, 308 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Levine Toilolo and Ryan Hewitt each have 4 touchdown catches. Kicker Jordan Williamson is 41/43 on extra points and 11/12 on field goals with a long of 45 yards. He has missed the last two games with a leg injury but is probable against Oregon. If he can’t go Eric Whitaker is 11/11 on extra points, and 3/3 on field goals with a long of 33 yards. Three Stanford defensive players are questionable or out for this game.
Stanford is 9-0 against the spread this season and the total is 4-5 in those games. Oregon is 5-3-1 ATS and the total is 5-4 in those games. The last two games have gone over the total in this series. The Ducks are 5-1-1 ATS in conference games, 4-1-1 after a straight up win and overall, 4-1 as an underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points, 1-3-2 after a cover, 1-3-1 in November and after allowing 20 points or less. The Cardinal are 5-0 ATS versus teams with winning records, 4-0-1 in November, 21-4-1 after a straight up win, 12-3-1 as a favorite of between 3.5 and 10 points, 23-6-1 after a straight up win of more than 20 points, 21-6-1 overall, 20-6-1 after allowing less than 20 points, 19-6-1 after a cover and on grass, 21-7-1 in conference games, 20-7 in home games, 20-7-1 as a home favorite, 5-2 at home against teams with winning road records, and 35-15-2 as a favorite.
Besides the USC game, Stanford has won every game by at least 25 points. Of course, they haven’t played a team as strong as Oregon. There should be a ton of points scored in this game as these are two of the most explosive offenses in the country. Recent history says Oregon should win this game, but I think this is the year the Cardinal break out of their slump against Oregon. Stanford wins a close game.
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