#25 Washington Huskies at #8 Stanford Cardinal
Stanford Stadium – Palo Alto, Calif0rnia
Saturday, October 22, 2011, 8:00 pm Eastern, TV: ABC or ESPN GP
Opening Line: Stanford -19 1/2
Current Line: Stanford -20
Opening Total: 60 1/2
Current Total: 63
Opening Money Line: Stanford -1300 / Washington +850
Current Money Line: Stanford -1300 / Washington +850
The #25 5-1 Washington Huskies are 3-0 in the Pac 12 North Division as they travel to Palo Alto to take on the #8 6-0 Stanford Cardinal who are 4-0 in conference. The Huskies are coached by Steve Sarkisian, and have home wins over Eastern Washington 30-27, Hawaii 40-32, California 31-23, and last week against Colorado 52-24, along with a road win at Utah 31-14. The only loss came at Nebraska 51-38. Stanford is undefeated under first year coach David Shaw, with home wins over San Jose St 57-3, UCLA 45-19, and Colorado 48-7, along with road wins at Duke, 44-14, Arizona 37-10, and last week at Washington St 44-14. Stanford has won all 6 games by an average of 34.7 points, but they really haven’t played anyone yet. Washington will be their most difficult test so far. Stanford has the nation’s longest winning streak at 14 dating back to last year. Washington leads the overall series against Stanford 40-37-4 but the Cardinal have won 3 straight in the series and 5 of the last 6 including 41-0 last year in Seattle.
Washington was a 17 point favorite on the college football betting line last week at home against Colorado. Washington was up 38-10 at halftime, and breezed to a 52-24 win. The Huskies had 562 total yards including 295 rushing yards, and 31 first downs. Washington Quarterback Keith Price threw for 257 yards with 4 touchdowns and no picks. Running back Chris Polk had 18 carries, 117 yards, and no rushing touchdowns, but he did have a receiving touchdown. Jesse Callier had 10 carries for 81 yards and a touchdown. Bishop Sankey had 8 carries, 71 yards and a touchdown. Colorado only had 269 total yards including 62 rushing yards.
Washington is averaging 419.7 yards and 37 points a game. The Huskies are averaging 246 passing yards and 173.7 rushing yards a game. Washington has 8 turnovers and allowed 12 sacks this season. The Huskies are 41/80 on third and fourth down conversions and 23/26 scoring in the red zone with 20 touchdowns. The Huskies are allowing 400.7 yards and 28.5 points. The Huskies are allowing 303.7 passing yards a game and 97 rushing yards. The Huskies have forced 12 turnovers and 13 sacks this season. Washington opponents are 49/98 on third and fourth down conversions this season, and 23/28 scoring in the red zone with 16 touchdowns. Washington has one defensive touchdown this season.
Price is 118/170 passing with 1,466 yards, 21 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions, along with 29 carries for 15 yards. Polk has 134 carries, 728 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 11 catches for 142 yards and 2 touchdowns. Backup running backs Johri Fogerson and Deonte Cooper are both out for the season, but Polk gets the vast majority of carries anyway. Callier and Sankey both get significant carries. Wide receiver Devin Aguilar has 21 receptions for 330 yards, and 3 touchdowns. James Johnson has 22 catches, 287 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Jermaine Kearse has 23 catches for 284 yards, and 6 touchdowns. Austin Sefarian-Jenkins has 15 catches, 244 yards, and 4 catches. Kasen Williams only has 10 catches but 2 of them are for touchdowns. Kicker Erik Folk (younger brother of the Jets’ kicker Nick) is perfect on extra points this season with 27 and with 8/9 on field goals and a long of 53 yards. The Husky secondary has been bitten by the injury bug with 4 players listed as questionable or out against Stanford.
Stanford traveled to Washington St last week. The Cardinal were only up 10-7 at halftime, but Stanford outscored them 34-7 at halftime to win 44-14 and cover the 20 point spread. Stanford had 475 total yards including 336 passing yards from Heisman Trophy favorite Andrew Luck, who had 4 touchdowns and an interception. Running back Stepfan Taylor had 17 carries for 100 yards, and a touchdown catch. Receiver Coby Fleener had 4 catches, 128 yards, and a touchdown. Levine Toilolo had 2 touchdown catches. The Cardinal overcame 2 turnovers in the win. Stanford had a 96 yard kickoff return for a touchdown on the last play of the game. Washington St had 257 total yards, with 48 rushing yards, and 17 yards.
Stanford is averaging 485.7 yards a game and 45.8 points a game. The Cardinal average 304 passing yards and 181.7 rushing yards a game. Stanford has 5 turnovers and has allowed just 2 sacks. The Cardinal are 48/85 on third and fourth down conversions, and 31/31 scoring in the red zone with 25 touchdowns. Stanford is giving up 294.8 yards and 11.2 points a game. The Cardinal allow 235.3 passing yards, and 59.5 rushing yards a game. Stanford has forced 8 turnovers and 23 sacks this season. Cardinal opponents are 29/96 on third and fourth down conversions, and 10/17 scoring in the red zone with 8 touchdowns. Stanford has 2 defensive/special teams touchdowns this season.
Luck is 129/181 passing for 1,719 yards, with 18 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, along with 13 carries for 60 yards and a touchdown. Luck rushed for nearly 500 yards last season with 3 touchdowns, but he won’t get near those numbers this year as Stanford wants to protect their star quarterback now and for his future in the NFL. Taylor has 101 carries, 559 yards, and 5 touchdowns, along with 11 catches for 75 yards and a touchdown. Tyler Gaffney and Jeremy Stewart each have 4 touchdown runs. Fleener has 16 catches, 383 yards, and 6 touchdowns. Chris Owusu has 25 catches, 309 yards, and 2 touchdowns. He is questionable Saturday with a head injury. Zach Ertz has 20 catches, 279 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Toilolo and Ryan Hewitt each have 3 touchdown catches. Kicker Jordan Williamson is 33/35 on extra points and 8/9 on field goals with a long of 45 yards. Three Stanford defensive players are questionable or out for this game.
Stanford is 6-0 against the spread this season and the total is 2-4 in those games. Washington is 5-1 ATS this season and the total is 3-2-1. Stanford has covered the last two meetings against Washington and both games went under the total. The Huskies are 6-0-1 ATS in the last 7 conference games, 7-0 following a straight up win and a cover, 5-0-1 against teams with winning records, 5-0-1 in the last 6 road games, 4-0-1 as a road underdog, 9-1-1 overall, 5-1-1 as an underdog of 10.5 points or more, including 3-1-1 on the road, and 15-37-2 in October games. The Cardinal are 14-3-1 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 or more, including the last 4 as a home favorite, 4-0 in October, 20-6-1 as a favorite, 16-5-1 following a cover, 19-6-1 after a straight up win, 19-7 at home, 19-7-1 as a home favorite and on grass, 21-8-1 overall, 18-7-1 in conference games, and 5-2 against teams with winning records.
These two teams are a combined 11-1 against the spread this season and Washington has covered 5 straight since a narrow win against Eastern Washington to open the season. I don’t know if Stanford will crush Washington like they have every other opponent this season, but Washington hasn’t faced a team as strong as Stanford either. Yes, I know Washington lost at Nebraska, but I think Nebraska would be at least a 2 touchdown underdog to Stanford if they played. I expect a lot of points between these two high powered offenses.
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