Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Middle Tennessee St Blue Raiders
Floyd Stadium – Murfreesboro, Tennesee
Thursday, October 6, 2011, 7:30 pm Eastern, TV: ESPNU
Opening Line: MTSU -8
Current Line: MTSU -11 1/2
Opening Total: 53 1/2
Current Total: 54 1/2
Opening Money Line: MTSU -350 / WKU +290
Current Money Line: MTSU -425 / WKU +355

In Sun Belt action Thursday night, the 1-3 Middle Tennessee St Blue Raiders face the 0-4 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers in a game that will be nationally televised
on ESPNU. Western Kentucky is coached by Willie Taggart, and has losses to Kentucky 14-3, Navy 40-14, Indiana St 44-16, and last week against Arkansas St 26-22. This is the first official road game for the Hilltoppers but the Kentucky game was played in Nashville. Middle Tennessee is coached by Rick Stockstill, and got their first win of the season last week at home versus Memphis 38-31. Before that, the Blue Raiders were 0-3 with losses at Purdue 27-24, at home versus Georgia Tech 49-21, and at Troy 38-35. MTSU leads the series against WKU 32-28-1, including 16-10 in Murfreesboro. The Blue Raiders won a close game last season at Western Kentucky 27-26. The series dates back to 1914 between the two schools.

Western Kentucky almost got their first win of the season last week against Arkansas St. The Hilltoppers were up 22-19 in the fourth quarter before Arkansas St scored with 43 seconds left to win 26-22. WKU had 311 total yards including 152 rushing yards. Western Kentucky had 2 turnovers and 11 penalties in the loss. Arkansas St had 444 total yards but only 25 rushing yards. The Red Wolves had 9 penalties but no turnovers.

Western Kentucky has one of the worst offenses in the country, averaging 297.8 total yards and 13.8 points a game. The Hilltoppers average 161.5 passing yards and 136.2 rushing yards a game. WKU has 15 turnovers and has allowed 6 sacks this season. The Hilltoppers ar3 23/69 on third and fourth down conversions, and 5/9 scoring in the red zone with 4 touchdowns. The defense isn’t much better for the Hilltoppers as they give up 395 total yards a game, including 184.2 rushing yards a game. WKU has forced 7 turnovers and 10 sacks this year. Hilltopper opponents are 19/57 on third and fourth down conversions, and 8/10 scoring in the red zone with 6 touchdowns.

The Hilltoppers have been hit hard by the injury bug with starting quarterback Brandon Doughty and  receivers Marcus Vazquez & Willie McNeal all out for the season with torn ACL’s. Kawaun Jakes has been the quarterback since Doughty went down in the first game of the season against Kentucky. Jakes is 51/92 passing for 523 yards, 3 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, along with 29 carries for 102 yards. Running back Bobby Rainey has been the whole offense for the most part. He is the leading rusher and receiver for WKU. Rainey has 100 carries, 427 yards, and 2 touchdowns, along with 16 catches for 137 yards, and a touchdown. Rainey even threw a touchdown pass on his only attempt of the year. Fullback Kadeem Jones has a rushing and receiving touchdown this season. Jack Doyle is the leading receiver besides Rainey since Vazquez went down with injury. He has 13 catches for 127 yards. Receiver Antonio Andrews is questionable with an ankle injury but he hasn’t played yet this season. His eventual return will help the Hilltoppers’ depth at receiver. Kicker Casey Tinius is 4/4 on extra points and 1/3 on field goals with a 41 yard kick. Jesse Roy is 1/2 on extra points and 1/1 on field goals with a 40 yard kick.

Middle Tennessee St and Memphis were tied at 17 at the end of the third. The blue Raiders took a 31-24 lead, before Memphis tied it up with 1:41 left. MTSU scored with 11 seconds left to win 38-31 on a 33 yard touchdown pass from quarterback Logan Kilgore to Anthony Amos. Kilgore threw for 277 yards, and 3 touchdown with an interception in the win. D.D. Kyles had 15 carries for 105 yards and a 59 yard touchdown run. Receiver Malcolm Beyah had 6 catches for 82 yards and 2 touchdowns but one of them came on a fumble recovery in the end zone. Middle Tennessee had 477 total yards including 200 rushing yards. Memphis had 395 total yards, including 165 rushing yards. Memphis had 2 turnovers and MTSU had just the one interception.

Middle Tennessee has a top 20 offense averaging 465.2 yards including 304.2 passing yards a game. The Blue Raiders score 29.5 points a game. MTSU has 7 turnovers and has allowed 3 sacks this season. The Blue Raiders are 34/73 on third and fourth down conversions, and 6/7 scoring in the red zone with 5 touchdowns. Middle Tennessee has one of the worst defenses in the country giving up 472.5 yards, including 220 rushing yards. The Blue Raiders give up 36.2 points a game. MTSU has forced 7 turnovers and 7 sacks this season. MTSU opponents are 33/67 on third and fourth down conversions, and 13/14 scoring in the red zone with 11 touchdowns.

Kilgore is 99/163 passing with 1,139 yards, 10 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, along with 12 carries for 25 yards. Running back Benjamin Cunningham has 54 carries, 287 yards, and two touchdown runs along with 9 catches, 138 yards, and a touchdown. Cunningham is listed as doubtful against Western Kentucky with a foot injury. Kyles has 39 carries, 179 yards, and 2 touchdowns, along with 3 catches for 36 yards. If Cunningham can’t go look for William Pratcher to get more carries. He has 25 carries for 141 yards. Beyah has 19 catches for 254 yards, and 4 touchdowns. Sancho McDonald has 15 catches, 189 yards, and 3 scores. Amos has 9 catches, 175 yards and 2 scores. Tavarres Jefferson has 17 catches for 108 yards.

MTSU is 2-2 against the spread this season and all 4 games have gone over the total. Western Kentucky is 2-2 ATS this season and the total is 2-2 as well. Middle Tennessee St is 13-4 ATS when playing with 6 days or lest rest the last 3 seasons. The Blue Raiders are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 conference games, 20-9-1 ATS following a straight up win, 1-4 in their last 5 Thursday games, and 1-5 in their last 6 as a favorite. WKU is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 as an underdog including 5-1 as a road underdog, and 4-1 as an underdog of 10.5 points or more. The Hilltoppers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games, 4-1 in their last 5 conference games, 3-8 in their last 11 October games, and 0-4 in their last 4 on turf.

This line moved from MTSU -8 to -11.5. Western Kentucky is so banged up at the skill positions that they simply don’t have the horses to match up with the high octane Blue Raiders. Rainey will do his best to keep Western Kentucky in it, but I think MTSU will easily cover the number. Neither team is really that great on defense, so this could be a shootout as well.

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